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Ibond question

Posted on 7/24/22 at 11:17 pm
Posted by MDTiger 13
Fairhope, AL
Member since Nov 2010
1000 posts
Posted on 7/24/22 at 11:17 pm
Beginning of the year my wife and I purchased I-bonds at the max allowable. Looking into it more, it seems that if one is in the top tax bracket, even if you hold on for whole time, if you are still in that top bracket, then you possibly lose more money with the taxes rather than keep up with inflation. And a more aggressive investment method would have been much smarter if I’m seeing myself doing this and remaining in the top or near the top tax bracket at the end of these bonds.

Am I looking into how this plays out wrong, or is this mainly being pushed on those older in the work force who don’t see themselves in the higher brackets once the full life of the bond is up
Posted by Pezzo
Member since Aug 2020
1931 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 7:13 am to
more aggressive than the 10% inflation we're seeing?

in this market?

good luck
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80761 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 9:56 am to
Ibonds are not a long term investment. They are designed to essentially break even with your purchasing power of your investment. If you are young and don't need the money for 5+ years, odds are investing in the market today will beat Ibonds pretty substantially.
Posted by lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
11474 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 10:01 am to
I think of it as more of a cash replacement and not an investment replacement.

But, I also think if you look at the Risk Adjusted Return Ibonds at these rates smokes most other investments.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84609 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 10:01 am to
I bonds probably get too much love around here, but you’re not going to find a better guaranteed option over 12 months, taxes be damned.

ETA- also, if you’re in the top tax bracket of MFJ, putting aside $20k in I bonds shouldn’t stop you from saving in traditional investments with your other income.
This post was edited on 7/25/22 at 10:03 am
Posted by Warfox
B.R. Native (now in MA)
Member since Apr 2017
3121 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

If you are young and don't need the money for 5+ years, odds are investing in the market today will beat Ibonds pretty substantially.


5 years ago, maybe. But not 5 years looking ahead, no way.

10 years and I agree.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80761 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

5 years ago, maybe. But not 5 years looking ahead, no way.

We shall see. I think it is pretty crazy to think the stock market won't beat inflation + a few basis points over the next 5 years starting today.
Posted by tirebiter
7K R&G chile land aka SF
Member since Oct 2006
9181 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 2:17 pm to
quote:

Ibonds are not a long term investment. They are designed to essentially break even with your purchasing power of your investment. If you are young and don't need the money for 5+ years, odds are investing in the market today will beat Ibonds pretty substantially.


I bonds can definitely be long term investments, they can actually be safer than TIPS that can fluctuate significantly in value, intermediate duration TIPS funds have stunk this year. The challenge I have with I bonds is they haven't had a fixed rate component for years so if inflation subsides to sub 3% they become much less appealing. I have 6 figures in I bonds and over 80% have a fixed rate component and with higher purchase limits back then it was much easier to build to a meaningful amount vs current purchase policy. Not everyone wants to be 80 - 100% stocks, 10+ year time frame or not.
Posted by gpburdell
ATL
Member since Jun 2015
1419 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 4:58 pm to
I don't view I bonds as an investment (i.e. expecting it to make me richer), but that doesn't mean I wouldn't hold them long term. I bonds (and TIPS) won't make you rich, but they can keep you rich. There is a reason, the govt sets a limit on I bonds unlike TIPS.

I bonds are perfect to hold your emergency fund as they are liquid (after 1 year), risk free, can never lose value and maintains purchasing power. I've got a year's worth of basic expenses in I bonds already and will keep on buying. I wish I knew about them earlier and more importantly understood their value.

As someone who is looking to retire early within 10 years; I've been reading on how to retire, setup my portfolio etc. It's alot harder than I thought it would be. One common thing I've come across is using both TIPS and I bonds to establish a risk free and inflation protected annual income. This is very appealing as high inflation is the worst thing in retirment. Sure stocks can beat inflation over time, but you might not have time once you're older.

The problem with I bonds is the annual limit, so to have a significant amount you have to start accumulating early. TIPS don't have that problem and can even outperform I bonds as well which they are doing now as their rates have turned positive again.

That said, I wouldn't take money I wanted invested in stocks to buy I bonds just because the rate is high.
This post was edited on 7/25/22 at 5:02 pm
Posted by TeaParty
Member since May 2022
935 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 5:20 pm to
I bought mine as a short term hedge against inflation. Nothing that is this secure is paying over 9% and estimates are coming out now that we are 3 months into this cycle that the next cycle could be 10 or higher. We will see. As soon as it looks like the markets are growing again I will cash them in and re invest. If you are looking to park cash you don't need for 1 year CD's etc are a loss of purchasing power. Even giving up 3 months if held less than 5 years you are ahead of vehicle out right now with the security.
Posted by pioneerbasketball
Team Bunchie
Member since Oct 2005
132222 posts
Posted on 7/25/22 at 5:35 pm to
I use it as a place to set my extra emergency fund. Instead of having it set somewhere with little or no interest.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80761 posts
Posted on 7/26/22 at 8:47 am to
quote:

I use it as a place to set my extra emergency fund. Instead of having it set somewhere with little or no interest.
This is a great way to use it IMO
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
38741 posts
Posted on 7/26/22 at 12:14 pm to
I bought mine as a place to store emergency fund
Posted by Brobocop
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2018
1903 posts
Posted on 7/26/22 at 4:29 pm to
I assume your money is inaccessible for 12 months?
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35236 posts
Posted on 7/26/22 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

We shall see. I think it is pretty crazy to think the stock market won't beat inflation + a few basis points over the next 5 years starting today.
Yeah, and it’s not like inflation is inherently bad for a segments of the stock market, and in fact, some actually benefit from it.

Regardless, if one thinks that the market is a better option (in terms of ROI) over 10 years, then I don’t see how one would think it would be a WORSE option over 5 years. It’s not like we have any unique insight to predict and differentiate the conditions between 5-10 years.

That said, it makes sense from a risk perspective, as the shorter the duration, the more risk there is, but that doesn’t really change the overall ROI, just risk-adjusted ROI.

Regardless, since we’re still ~18% off the highs, there is much more upside now, especially since the market has priced in whatever would cause a 18% decline in the FUTURE (recession, interest rates, etc).
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35236 posts
Posted on 7/26/22 at 5:00 pm to
quote:

Looking into it more, it seems that if one is in the top tax bracket, even if you hold on for whole time, if you are still in that top bracket, then you possibly lose more money with the taxes rather than keep up with inflation.
Now the accountants on here would be able to answer this better, but I'm confused about what you mean about "if one of us is in the top tax bracket." It sounds like you're talking about married filing separately, but in that case, wouldn't it only matter for the portion of the Ibonds that was bought for each individual?

In other words, if you both bought and sold IBonds, and you're filing separately, then I would think that each of you would be taxed at your individual marginal rates when sold.

And you could always strategically sell them (e.g., maybe your marginal tax rate differs from year to year, so sell when at a lower rate), and/or strategically determine how you're going to file your taxes (e.g., if filing joint makes more sense).

This is probably a good example of it being worth the cost to have a professional help out, since tax planning is a little more complicated and specific to the individual.

Overall though, based on what you've provided, if you're going to be subjected to 37% taxes on the interest, plus 3-month interest penalty unless you hold them for 5 years, AND since IBond rates should be near their peak, there is a good chance your overall ROI will be lower than the overall market taxed at more long term rates (probably 20% although local and state taxes may make that higher). I'm also not sure if the 3.8% net investment tax would pertain to IBonds interest or not (if not, but it would apply to other gains, then it would make IBonds a bit more favorable than if it is subjected to it).

Regardless, while paying taxes sucks, and they should be considered when making financial investment/savings decisions, having to consider the impact of ~40% tax rates, is a good problem to have, IMO, because that means you have a lot of income.
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
38741 posts
Posted on 7/26/22 at 6:49 pm to
Yeah after 1 year good spot though
Posted by Quidam65
Q Continuum
Member since Jun 2010
19307 posts
Posted on 7/27/22 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

I assume your money is inaccessible for 12 months?


Correct with one exception: if an area is hit by a natural disaster (say a hurricane makes it all the way to BR and causes severe damage) the 12 month rule can be waived by Treasury. Check the news section on TreasuryDirect for examples.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80761 posts
Posted on 2/28/24 at 8:35 pm to
quote:

Ibonds are not a long term investment. They are designed to essentially break even with your purchasing power of your investment. If you are young and don't need the money for 5+ years, odds are investing in the market today will beat Ibonds pretty substantially.

Have ibonds returned 30+% like the market has since this thread was created?
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