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How does the SCOTUS News affect the market?
Posted on 9/19/20 at 10:04 am
Posted on 9/19/20 at 10:04 am
Not that this news really has anything to do with the market, but we all know headlines and politics can impact the market randomly. What do yall think?
I'm thinking market is green Monday.
I'm thinking market is green Monday.
7
Posted on 9/19/20 at 10:17 am to Pipedream
More burned down cities
Posted on 9/19/20 at 11:21 am to Pipedream
Little to no impact is my guess
Posted on 9/19/20 at 11:27 am to Pipedream
Which institutions are selling on the news Roe v Wade is at risk to get thrown back to the states 
Posted on 9/19/20 at 11:50 am to Pipedream
I think you may see the polls and betting odds tighten some, as this may give all the closet Trumpers and anti-Trumpers the cover they need to support Trump. Think about it, the left were voting for Biden regardless of RBG’s death, but you have many in the middle and on the right who simply can’t stomach Trump. Now, their short-term protest vote against Trump may give way to the longer-term implications of preventing the left from nominating a radically liberal SC justice. To think the left would nominate a moderate in this climate we all know is foolish.
With a tighter race, you get more uncertainty. With more uncertainty, you could get more volatility. As Elroy Dimson has so eloquently put it, “Risk means more things can happen than will happen.” That could ring a little truer now, but I think it’s mostly marginal. I wouldn’t be surprised if stocks are flat to weaker next week on this news, but there are many other factors to be more worried about, in my view.
With a tighter race, you get more uncertainty. With more uncertainty, you could get more volatility. As Elroy Dimson has so eloquently put it, “Risk means more things can happen than will happen.” That could ring a little truer now, but I think it’s mostly marginal. I wouldn’t be surprised if stocks are flat to weaker next week on this news, but there are many other factors to be more worried about, in my view.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 1:37 pm to RedStickBR
If McConnell can get a replacement through prior to the election I think it demoralizes Biden voters who wanted to make sure she was replaced with a leftist.
If it’s pushed until after the election I think it motivates low energy Biden supporters to turn out and vote.
If it’s pushed until after the election I think it motivates low energy Biden supporters to turn out and vote.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 7:48 pm to Pipedream
I see everyone talking about the polls. But I’m more interested in the calendar.
Next week was the time Congress was going to decide on Federal unemployment benefits as part of the spending appropriation bill. If the Senate agreed to the House’s bill, unemployed Americans would have gotten an extra $600.
But now that everyone is fixated on SCOTUS, the benefits won’t be Congress’ priority. Meaning: The odds of additional stimulus has dropped.
Ergo: Markets lower.
Next week was the time Congress was going to decide on Federal unemployment benefits as part of the spending appropriation bill. If the Senate agreed to the House’s bill, unemployed Americans would have gotten an extra $600.
But now that everyone is fixated on SCOTUS, the benefits won’t be Congress’ priority. Meaning: The odds of additional stimulus has dropped.
Ergo: Markets lower.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 9:38 pm to Pipedream
If 6 trillion on the Fed balance sheet did nothing, he death will do even less.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 10:06 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
To think the left would nominate a moderate in this climate we all know is foolish.
Yeah but everyone knows RBG would have retired if Biden were to win.
Posted on 9/19/20 at 10:09 pm to tide06
quote:in theory, you're right. But I'd bet that the % of voters who put the SC at the top of their issues is pretty low.
If McConnell can get a replacement through prior to the election I think it demoralizes Biden voters who wanted to make sure she was replaced with a leftist.
If it’s pushed until after the election I think it motivates low energy Biden supporters to turn out and vote.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:58 am to Pipedream
I'm thinking back to the mess in the final stages of Bush/Gore in Florida and having a potential 4/4 SC flounder while dems are "finding" votes in Palm Beach or some such is enough to worry a lot of people.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 12:07 pm to Auburn1968
Posted on 9/21/20 at 12:35 pm to RedStickBR
It is hilarious to me how many downvotes any post on the Money Talk gets if it is even remotely critical of Trump or the equity markets (or both) 
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