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Started By
Message
re: Hoping that Amazon misses badly. Let's get this meltdown going so we can buy cheap.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:16 pm to whitefoot
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:16 pm to whitefoot
quote:
I'm going contrarian with Amazon earnings today. I think they're going to surprise to the upside.
My thesis is that AWS, subscription and advertising* all did fine and that core retail got a big holiday boost from Omicron spiking in December. We've see other retail earnings come in low, and I'm betting that shopping money went to Amazon. I feel like the 2021 holiday season was the last hurrah for the free money spending era of the pandemic.
*I could be wrong on advertising as Meta cited headwinds from iOS security changes and this could partially affect Amazon as well.
They missed pretty badly on their Q3 earnings and lowered expectations for Q4 back in October, so I think this quarter will at least be solid.
Helluva call, my man.
Very nice. Wish I had the stones to buy before close but this market has me SPOOKED. 
2
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:19 pm to they call me horse
quote:
Cool story, Good luck in your endeavors.
While you rooted for AMZN to crash, I purchased call spreads. It was down. That whole buy low sell high thing that Warren taught you.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:19 pm to playmakers in space
Looking closer AWS growth as always is the business.
Earnings basically all because of the Rivian investment.
Otherwise online sales are a miss
Earnings basically all because of the Rivian investment.
Otherwise online sales are a miss
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:22 pm to they call me horse
Oh thank you AMZN i bought GOOGl yesterday and was looking at a huge drop. We were one step away from Doom!
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:37 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Looking closer AWS growth as always is the business.
Earnings basically all because of the Rivian investment.
Otherwise online sales are a miss
Agree.
I said yesterday that AWS may bail out their earnings.
Not impressed by earnings due to Rivian investment, as if you can count on that going forward.
Not sure what people are so excited about.
Online sales were a miss.
Guiding lower.
Still well off of 52 week high and pretty much just recovering the panic induced sell off from Meta earnings.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:41 pm to they call me horse
Sorry you didnt get you doom and gloom but not really sorry
Posted on 2/3/22 at 3:44 pm to FLObserver
quote:
Sorry you didnt get you doom and gloom but not really sorry
Made money, was just hoping for a bigger sell off to make even more money by buying more at lower prices.
Win either way.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 4:05 pm to UltimaParadox
Can’t believe they haven’t spunoff AWS yet
ETA i agree I’m surprised this is being received so positively. Without Rivn this seems like a mess
ETA i agree I’m surprised this is being received so positively. Without Rivn this seems like a mess
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 2/3/22 at 4:07 pm to they call me horse
AMZN is up 9% if you don't count today's "sell off from Meta earnings."
The market probably also likes that they are jacking up the price of Prime.
Today I was better prepared to profit, regardless of how AMZN went. I had open tickets to buy QQQ calls and puts and executed the calls once their numbers hit. Happy with a 33% return in a few minutes.
The market probably also likes that they are jacking up the price of Prime.
Today I was better prepared to profit, regardless of how AMZN went. I had open tickets to buy QQQ calls and puts and executed the calls once their numbers hit. Happy with a 33% return in a few minutes.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 4:10 pm to hiltacular
quote:
Can’t believe they haven’t spunoff AWS yet
They need AWS to bail out their lack of earnings for their other businesses.
Missed on revenue, guiding lower, all of their earnings due to AWS and Rivian investment.
FYI. These results are for q4.
Rivian stock price at eoy was 103.
Rivian stock price now is 60.
So they have last a bunch on their Rivian investment so far in Q1.
Rivian investment that helped bail them out last quarter has dropped nearly 50 percent so far in q1.
This post was edited on 2/3/22 at 4:13 pm
Posted on 2/3/22 at 4:59 pm to they call me horse
quote:
Otherwise online sales are a miss
Where are y'all seeing online sales numbers and estimates?
quote:
I said yesterday that AWS may bail out their earni
AWS wasn't that huge of a beat and 40% growth is what I've seen as an expectation from analysts. It's also only about 13% of their total revenue.
quote:
Not impressed by earnings due to Rivian investment, as if you can count on that going forward.
Even if you back out Rivian, they still beat expectations handily.
quote:
Online sales were a miss.
What were the online sales numbers and previous estimates?
quote:
Not sure what people are so excited about.
I'm not excited, I just didn't think the quarter would be the disaster you were looking for.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 5:06 pm to playmakers in space
quote:
Helluva call, my man. Very nice. Wish I had the stones to buy before close but this market has me SPOOKED
Thanks, but I'm no hero. I definitely didn't buy any Amazon today. This market environment is treacherous. I'm treading very lightly.
I thought the quarter would be ok, but was unsure what the guidance would look like (thought it would be ok too, but less confident in that than the earnings, and the main reason I was confident about earnings were the low expectations going in).
But, all that said, this market is acting very irrationally and any mistakes have the chance of getting absolutely pummeled.
I'm trying to invest, not gamble and buying Amazon ahead of earnings, especially on the heels of the Meta reaction, felt like a big gamble to me.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 5:52 pm to whitefoot
maybe or maybe you should not, depending on your pain tolerance but if you read the book 'when money dies' ...everything was trading like a shitcoin at the end. women were selling their arse to survive (only fans)
with that said, this is just a little shakeout before the printer HAS to be turned back on. it is math. they literally cant stop printing. we are $30T in debt
with that said, this is just a little shakeout before the printer HAS to be turned back on. it is math. they literally cant stop printing. we are $30T in debt
Posted on 2/3/22 at 8:37 pm to rocket31
quote:
maybe or maybe you should not, depending on your pain tolerance
I mean, I'm definitely still investing money. I'm just picking my spots judiciously right now and Amazon was a little more of a risk than I wanted to take today. That said, I own Amazon already and am heavily invested in mutual funds and ETFs where it is a core holding. So, I've got plenty of exposure to the company.
Posted on 2/3/22 at 9:05 pm to they call me horse
No soup for you
Posted on 2/3/22 at 10:11 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
Like you said, FB’s issues with the new Apple tracking thing are real. And Amazon still gets a lot of its revenue from ads, especially on YouTube. That’s a headwind at this point.
Just a follow-up on this. Amazon reported $10 billion in revenue from advertising (by comparison, YouTube did $8.6 billion) and said there was no impact from the Apple privacy policies.
Posted on 2/4/22 at 8:05 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Earnings basically all because of the Rivian investment.
Online sales were less than expected but their earnings were not as much on Rivian they were on cloud based business.
Stripping out one-time items (rivian) put adjusted earnings at $5.80 per share compared with estimates for $3.57.
This post was edited on 2/4/22 at 9:22 am
Posted on 2/4/22 at 8:48 am to SlidellCajun
Amazon pulling back to where it started yesterday morning.
Earning were all AWS and a one time boost from Rivian IPO.
Rivian was at 106 at end of last quarter, it's 60 now.
Last time I checked there isn't a Christmas for a few quarters.
So basically they are guiding lower, Rivian will likey be a loss this quarter, so AWS will have to keep rescuing earnings if they can.
Earning were all AWS and a one time boost from Rivian IPO.
Rivian was at 106 at end of last quarter, it's 60 now.
Last time I checked there isn't a Christmas for a few quarters.
So basically they are guiding lower, Rivian will likey be a loss this quarter, so AWS will have to keep rescuing earnings if they can.
Posted on 2/4/22 at 9:03 am to they call me horse
quote:
Amazon pulling back to where it started yesterday morning.
What's your point? Do you have something personal against Amazon or are you just trying to defend this dumb thread?
Amazon being where it started the day yesterday is probably exactly where it deserves to be. It didn't deserve to be sold off 10% on Meta's earnings disaster. If yesterday's sell off never happened, Amazon probably would have been either flat or down slightly on those earnings.
As for you continuing to poopoo the quarter based on Rivian, Slidell already showed you what eps would have been without Rivian, which would have still been a huge beat on estimates.
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