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re: Have we discussed the Milkshake theory? It appears to be happening.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:16 am to GREENHEAD22
Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:16 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
So what does it mean? How do we take advantage of it?
do you know how to trade futures? currencies?
0
Posted on 9/29/22 at 10:59 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
So what does it mean? How do we take advantage of it?
It seems like precious metals would be the default, yet they are sluggish. I can't help but wonder if that lack of movement is due to markets around the world not realizing the milkshake effect yet.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 11:15 am to slackster
quote:
Remember when everyone was convinced that the dollar would be destroyed and worthless?
It certainly will. Study history of ALL fiat. Once faith is lost, it ALWAYS turns back to zero. Always.
Technically when ANYTHING starts going parabolic it is indeed a blow off before complete collapse. How long it will take is anyone’s guess.
Posted on 9/29/22 at 12:44 pm to wutangfinancial
yep. EURO DOLLAR (offshore / off balance sheet)
the offshore derivative and overnight bet/swap market and whatever is an absolute monster that could - and might - destroy everything
Basically even Husss (!!!) is right that all fiats will fail, eventually, however the main milkshake theory point to consider here is like a good old stack of dominoes failing. Just as we saw with the Bank of England, there are many other fiat currencies around the world that will fail with the result being the US Dollar is extremely likely to be the last fiat domino to fall ...
So
as currencies begin to truly fail worldwide - the US dollar will actually keep getting stronger until the whole fricking thing breaks (Fed pivot = lower interest rates)
AS part of my work I analyze the macro - and in the real estate world was told I was crazy last year three years ago - now my email box is full of people asking market cycle shite as if I am some sage (I am NOT)
the offshore derivative and overnight bet/swap market and whatever is an absolute monster that could - and might - destroy everything
Basically even Husss (!!!) is right that all fiats will fail, eventually, however the main milkshake theory point to consider here is like a good old stack of dominoes failing. Just as we saw with the Bank of England, there are many other fiat currencies around the world that will fail with the result being the US Dollar is extremely likely to be the last fiat domino to fall ...
So
as currencies begin to truly fail worldwide - the US dollar will actually keep getting stronger until the whole fricking thing breaks (Fed pivot = lower interest rates)
AS part of my work I analyze the macro - and in the real estate world was told I was crazy last year three years ago - now my email box is full of people asking market cycle shite as if I am some sage (I am NOT)
Posted on 9/29/22 at 12:47 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
The Federal Reserve printed exactly $0.00 since QE1
all about how you define it, but basically we are about to watch asset prices evaporate into the ether
balance sheet money / entries that never really existed can go up and then go down and ACTUAL currency was never created or destroyed
it's so fascinating and fricked up at the same time
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:12 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
So what does it mean? How do we take advantage of it?
Keep an eye on the UUP ETF it basically tracks the DXY
Watch for dips and get you some … remember the dominoes
ETA: also USDU etf that basically does same thing if you want choices. I THINK the major difference if you were to examine is UUP is more short the Euro as a percentage of currencies but I’m not 100% certain
This post was edited on 9/29/22 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 9/29/22 at 1:15 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:This is the end game of the theory. It could be a year, it could be 50 years. No telling how long it will take, we could all be dead by that point. It really depends on how many tricks central banks have up their sleeve to keep it going.
as currencies begin to truly fail worldwide - the US dollar will actually keep getting stronger until the whole fricking thing breaks (Fed pivot = lower interest rates)
Posted on 9/30/22 at 8:01 am to Lone Wolf McQuade
quote:
So my dollar is stronger and can buy more goods? Interesting.
No, your dollar has increased in value against other currencies, but your dollar still has less buying power at home.
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:15 am to TSLG
Only if you’re a consumer instead of a saver
Posted on 9/30/22 at 9:28 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:
This is the end game of the theory.
Let's say the British pound is the first Domino to fall. How soon would that trigger the next? Would the next, say Japanese yen, cause others to fall exponentially? If the dollar stands alone at the end, what are the forces that make it collapse? Seems that if everyone moved to the dollar for strength, then it would be valued more. (it's obvious how ignorant I am how the real financial world works...but I'm will to learn).
This post was edited on 9/30/22 at 9:37 am
Posted on 10/1/22 at 7:18 am to BestBanker
quote:
Watched the cliffs version, and the gentleman intimated the need for a "hedge", with no indication of the hedge move.
Anyone have ideas? Is it precious metals? Pooka shells?
Brent Johnson, the guy who came up with the "Dollar Milkshake" thesis, is a gold bug and suggests that as a hedge. I don't personally agree, but oddly, I don't disagree. Like I won't buy gold, but I can't say he's wrong in his line of thinking.
Posted on 10/1/22 at 7:49 am to BottomlandBrew
Stocks (companies) could still retain their value in the event of a currency collapse. They would just have to trade it some other means of exchange.
Posted on 10/1/22 at 8:53 am to GREENHEAD22
The tallest midget
Posted on 10/1/22 at 9:04 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Not sure the outcome or even if it is bad for the dollar but it appears to be happening. Go look at a currency chart for the past year.
Very interesting 6 min video.
We are in a bad place, not sure how much further they can kick the can down the road.
Posted on 10/1/22 at 9:47 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:
This is the end game of the theory. It could be a year, it could be 50 years
It won’t be 50 years. It very likely won’t even be three years because…
quote:
Let's say the British pound is the first Domino to fall. How soon would that trigger the next? Would the next, say Japanese yen, cause others to fall exponentially?
The Japanese and British economies are the third and fifth largest economies in the world, respectively. Both have already seen major currency devaluations in the past few months. The second and fourth largest economies are China and Germany. China’s currency would be heavily devalued if they had anything resembling an open financial system and the euro (Germany’s currency, ofc) has also taken a major beating.
The dominoes are already falling. Not “about to”. And why is this? Because all of these economies are heavily dependent on imports of raw materials which are denominated in USD. That’s the kicker.
What do you think happens when all of the other major players in the world need oil (for example) but can’t afford to get USD to buy it? They stop using the USD as a middleman and go to other things like gold, food, or maybe even a new reserve currency unconnected to any government (at least in theory).
That’s when shite gets real. When everyone who isn’t tied at the hip to the US attempts to go their own way we’ll see just how invested the US is in maintaining global hegemony. Because we COULD squash them all with a simple flattening of Middle Eastern oil production/export, but I’m not sure if there is the political willpower to pull that stunt or not.
This post was edited on 10/1/22 at 9:49 am
Posted on 10/1/22 at 5:05 pm to Decisions
quote:
but I’m not sure if there is the political willpower to pull that stunt or not
quote:
by Decisions
Checks out
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:52 am to Shankopotomus
Shankopotomous..
So is there a safe haven in hard assetts such ad realestate that you already own or should one sell (in light of the initial comment that everything tanks but the dollar continues to rise).
Is everything tanking inclusive of even real estate? Ive always heard that in inflationary environments you want to hold appreciating assets.
So is there a safe haven in hard assetts such ad realestate that you already own or should one sell (in light of the initial comment that everything tanks but the dollar continues to rise).
Is everything tanking inclusive of even real estate? Ive always heard that in inflationary environments you want to hold appreciating assets.
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