re: Fire up the Cannabis chat

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Last investment was in WWII bonds.

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bayoubengals88

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Has never opened an SEC filing for a cannabis company

MJ stocks have had a tough 8 or 9 months.

Its all tied to politics...

Passing SAFE with National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will be a start. There is bi-partisan support for this...

LINK to MJ Moment article

Next up would be the proposed State Reform Act (SRA)... a bill proposed by Nancy Mace (R-SC).. or something similar.

LINK to MJ Moment SRA Bill


I'm long on Trulieve (TCNNF), been in since June 2020.
Dominant in FL, acquired Harvest to establish southwest hub, expanding in the northeast.
LINK to TCNNF investor deck



Opinion: Now is a good time to start a position.
Forget Canadian LP's... MSO's all the way.

Simply the numbers; financials and size of the market.

Canadian LPs are burning cash right now.

Despite crazy tax regs right now, the best US MSOs are turning a profit.

If the federal politics get moving, the US market will explode. It's just a matter of time...
At the state level the legislation keeps on going... 1st medical then comes recreational.

Hell... Even backward AL has approved a medical mj bill... Yet still no lottery!

So once SAFE gets done the US MSOs get easier access to banks and credit..
Lower costs = even better margins and profits.


There are a bunches of articles out there comparing LPs vs MSOs... I'll find one or two and link them later.

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Passing SAFE with National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will be a start.

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Looks like SAFE Banking verbiage was stripped from the latest bill. But this has happened before and the latest Gallup Poll shows over 65% of Americans support the reform.

While congress gets their shite together, the black market will keep trading goods and services tax free.

Interestingly enough, Cannabis had a good day today with everything else.

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Here's your DD. Stay the ever living frick away from the industry.

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People don't know how true this is unless they know someone that's spent 10+ years in it. I have a friend that is a straight up master grower. Moved to colorado to farm it and grow it, and boy can he.

The industry is so insanely volatile. People get into it knowing nothing except that they "know business" and have 1m+ to get their grow started. Then they realize how difficult it is to move that much product and how it's a 1 and done type of thing. It is highly difficult to make a business model as a farmer that will be consistent.

Idk shite about cannabis stock/trading etc, but working in that industry is nightmare fuel.

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People get into it knowing nothing

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At this point, the big players have learned a ton about the business and where the problems are.

They have no clue about the timing of regulation and commercial banking capabilities but I presume they expected it before the current outlook.

The game is survival until that point, hence why the stocks are down significantly due to the uncertainty. Hence why I’m building positions now and will continue to do so over the next few years.

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Not allowing growers and sellers to use the US banking system for transactions

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Not only is it a pain for legitimate companies… but Congressional gridlock is shooting itself in the foot.

The tax free black market transactions are much larger than the legitimate and taxable transactions as a total.

The last thing the black market supply chain wants to see is the government opening the door to Cannabis as a normal business. If government does nothing, that market will keep doing business as normal and stay out of the real labor force.

Most Americans want to decriminalize and regulate but government pivots are slow and painful. Unintended consequences like non-violent offender reform is baked into this regulation discussion.

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Stay the ever living frick away from the industry.

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You were right. But here we are with these POS stocks..


US health officials look to move marijuana to lower-risk drug category

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I know Barclays put a $10 target on TLRY this AM.

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This isn’t to pick on this old post, but I will say that while analysts’ price targets tend to move a stock in the short term (up or down), they mean nothing at all in the longer term. This 2021 Barclays $10 price target is just an example of that, with TLRY now at $2.66/share almost 2 years later.

Also want to add, while I wouldn’t touch even one share of LVVV with a 100 foot pole, if TigrrrDad ever makes it to VIR on a track day, I’ll treat him to a burger. Bring that Vette up to Virginia, dude. We’ll hit the apexes and cook some carbon brake pads.