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re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:37 am to RedStickBR
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:37 am to RedStickBR
quote:
The Fed is terrified we slip into deflation.
they literally just said they are potentially raising rates to increase deflationary pressure
if that happens prices would fall and then the cash-rich can pick up discounted assets
if rising prices (especially for food) continue etc cause a breaking point, the majority will welcome deflation
1
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:48 am to rocket31
quote:
they literally just said they are potentially raising rates to increase deflationary pressure
Are you referring to Yellen’s comments?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:56 am to RedStickBR
quote:
I’ll just keep providing data and you stick with your personal anecdotes. More banks are tightening lending standards today than pre-COVID.
I work in mortgage as part of a diversified bank. This is 100% true and undeniable. On top of that, the borrowers are throwing down equity and have much better credit than decades past.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 11:59 am to RebelExpress38
quote:
So the fed is simply betting velocity wont increase? Seems like a risky bet, considering how much cash has been added in the last year.
All $856 billion of cash injections? Really?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 12:06 pm to RedStickBR
yes, i admittedly didnt follow through with her comments much deeper than surface level
did she take it back?
did she take it back?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 12:19 pm to tenderfoot tigah
quote:
global currency.
It's called crypto. Buy in now.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 12:41 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
All $856 billion of cash injections? Really?
Link
Posted on 5/5/21 at 12:57 pm to rocket31
Yes. She walked the comments back. Plus, she never would have used the D word. Her comments related to hiking rates in the event prices rise too fast, not to intentionally “increase deflationary pressure.”
Posted on 5/5/21 at 12:58 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
I work in mortgage as part of a diversified bank. This is 100% true and undeniable. On top of that, the borrowers are throwing down equity and have much better credit than decades past.
Thanks. I was speaking from personal experience in addition to what the data show, but good to have the additional confirmation from someone in the industry.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 1:11 pm to RebelExpress38
Naw you can look it up yourself. It's the total for direct payments from the Treasury. I haven't looked at the TGA in a while I'm sure that could be a good source as well.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 1:47 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
I’ll just keep providing data and you stick with your personal anecdotes. More banks are tightening lending standards today than pre-COVID.
You realize the data you are posting looks exactly like 2008 right?
Does "tightening standards" simply mean we are fricked?
This post was edited on 5/5/21 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:02 pm to JayDeerTay84
If you're worried about the MBS market it's already in full Fed price control mode and has been for 12 years at this point.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:06 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
If you're worried about the MBS market it's already in full Fed price control mode and has been for 12 years at this point.
I'm not worried. I understand the manipulation. I was just laughing at the comment that "banks are tightening standards"... Like its some kind of foresight on the banks being diligent...
Posted on 5/5/21 at 2:42 pm to JayDeerTay84
quote:
You realize the data you are posting looks exactly like 2008 right?
Does "tightening standards" simply mean we are fricked?
I'm not saying we're facing another GFC.
I was simply explaining that money supply increases have been offset by velocity decreases.
Someone else chimed in asking if we could see inflation if velocity increases.
I said we could, but that tightening lending standards and deleveraging in the consumer sector could cause velocity to remain depressed.
You responded, "LOL."
I showed you a chart indicating a continued contraction in loan and lease production since May 2020.
You said, "Yeah, but, what does that have to do with lending standards? And, um, how do you explain the increase in leverage over the last decade?"
I responded with a chart showing more banks tightening lending standards than was the case immediately prior to COVID, which supports the chart indicating an overall decline in loan and lease production. Also, I ignored the second part of your quip as what has happened over the last DECADE is irrelevant to the tightening happening TODAY.
What point exactly are you trying to make? And, to the extent you have one, can you dial down the sarcasm and perhaps point to a data point or two?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 3:01 pm to RedStickBR
I'll bump this when you all look like retards, Yellen and everyone at the fed are stupid idiots
Posted on 5/5/21 at 3:30 pm to Strannix
I don’t disagree the Fed has been reckless. They have been - no doubt about it.
That said, I think a lot of people will be surprised to see that any uptick in inflation was only temporary. Despite all the money printing, the deflationary forces facing our economy will outweigh any inflationary impacts of QE.
Now, if we go full blown helicopter money mode, and blur the lines between the Fed and the Treasury, then we sure as hell could see inflation, particularly if velocity increases at the same time.
That said, I think a lot of people will be surprised to see that any uptick in inflation was only temporary. Despite all the money printing, the deflationary forces facing our economy will outweigh any inflationary impacts of QE.
Now, if we go full blown helicopter money mode, and blur the lines between the Fed and the Treasury, then we sure as hell could see inflation, particularly if velocity increases at the same time.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 5:49 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
Now, if we go full blown helicopter money mode, and blur the lines between the Fed and the Treasury, then we sure as hell could see inflation, particularly if velocity increases at the same time.
The inflationistas on the MB don't understand this is now a political battle and it is one that I think will be lost next year. People are not up for that kind of system yet. It'll take another crisis driven response which I'd expect they have already prepared for just like they were prepared for Covid.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 6:45 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
Now, if we go full blown helicopter money mode,
If 10 trillion isn't what figure would you say is? 50 trillion? 100 trillion?
Posted on 5/5/21 at 7:02 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
The inflationistas on the MB don't understand this is now a political battle and it is one that I think will be lost next year. People are not up for that kind of system yet. It'll take another crisis driven response which I'd expect they have already prepared for just like they were prepared for Covid.
I agree with you. I think we’ve reached the point of grossly diminished marginal returns on fiscal spending and the Fed/Treasury realize that. Even Larry Summers is critical at this point. And given how much of the federal debt has had to be monetized by the Fed, any reduction in QE will also mean a less accommodative fiscal stance (unless foreign Treasury buyers show back up en masse). What has been a twin bazooka of fiscal and monetary coordination could become very problematic for the economy and risk assets if and when they simultaneously run out of ammo. At some point, they are just going to have to take their foot off the gas and let the pieces fall where they may.
Posted on 5/5/21 at 7:06 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
At some point, they are just going to have to take their foot off the gas and let the pieces fall where they may.
Which should have been done in 2008, they're basically degenerate gamblers.
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