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Ross
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2007
44838 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

Except wealth inequality has been showing signs of decreasing, at the very least not increasing.



is there not evidence for a K-shaped recovery in lieu of our injection of capital into the economy.

Seems the stock market grew at a record pace, almost equivalent to the M2 money supply expansion, as unemployment went up, if I recall. It would seem inevitable to me this promotes a strong disconnect between those with assets and those without.
This post was edited on 4/8 at 10:38 am


rocket31
Toledo Fan
Member since Jan 2008
39685 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

just like to give you shite for hating so strongly on fiat 


I just don't quite understand how people can trust holding fiat all things considering

I don't hate it as I believe it's useful for spending but I'm going to choose to save with something else


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31
buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
34469 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

i think the big argument is that how we view inflation needs to change
I mean there are a lot of reasonable arguments for changes or improvements in the measurement and estimation of inflation as it is a latent construct, often with multiple orders of latent constructs with many manifest variables measured with error and measured and estimates in such fundamentally different ways (e.g., some account for quality). And on top of that there are variances in the variables “inflationary impact” across time, regions, socio-economics levels, and other demographics.

Given all of those complexities, uncertainties, and disagreements, the idea that “how we view inflation needs to change” is reasonable if it relates to those factors (measurement, estimation, etc). But it’s unreasonable to change it on a conceptual and definitional level as the concept and definition itself is simple, logical, and pretty universally understood.


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buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
34469 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

Seems the stock market grew at a record pace, almost equivalent to the M2 money supply expansion, as unemployment went up, if I recall. It would seem inevitable to me this promotes a strong disconnect between those with assets and those without.
I was referring to overall over the last decade with the accommodative monetary policies worldwide. I think you’re right that the last year, at the very least the pressures have pushed more towards inequality. That said, I think those pressures will weaken as economic growth accelerates, and there are some fiscal policies that appear to be in the right direction in terms of more effectively bringing the bottom-up (direct payments for children vs. inefficient and more wasteful welfare policies that disincentivize a lot of ideal behaviors).


rocket31
Toledo Fan
Member since Jan 2008
39685 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
I do think they'll continue a "bottom up" approach

today:

Powell: Pandemic Hit Lower-Income Workers Most, Fed Very Concerned

Powell: Millions of People Will Have Hard Time Finding Way Back Into Workforce


rocket31
Toledo Fan
Member since Jan 2008
39685 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"


buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
34469 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

PPI much higher than estimates...shocking
And CPI is going to rise significantly even if prices don’t rise at all since we’re now in the paradoxical phase of traditional inflation measurements when the baseline reference months for the traditional YOY comparison had significant price decreases during the pandemic lockdowns. This is why the fed’s decision to target a long-run average inflation was an improvement.

But I expect the inflation fear-mongering to ignore the fact that this data artifact in the coming months, while also ignoring the data pre- and post-artifact period that contradict the fear-mongering.


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23
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
74459 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

PPI much higher than estimates...shocking


Highest year over year number since 2011. We all remember the rampant inflation that followed...


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13
down time
Member since Oct 2013
970 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Look at a few professions average salary percentage increases for the past 10 years.

2010 RN - 67000/yr ave
2021 RN - 77500/yr ave

2010 S&P500 SPY at $120-$130
2021 S&P500 SPY at $410

The worker is getting crushed


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
74459 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

The worker is getting crushed


Always has over long periods of time. Makes sense though - stocks make you an owner of the company, not an employee.


down time
Member since Oct 2013
970 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
instead of stock, then compare a nice townhouse in a "trendy and safe" neighborhood, medical care, tuition, annual trip to Hawaii, a new ski boat.

the 3% annual salary increases aren't keeping up, hence more debt.


notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
50045 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Well people can stop spending so much on BS if this is a concern


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10
buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
34469 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

instead of stock, then compare a nice townhouse in a "trendy and safe" neighborhood, medical care, tuition, annual trip to Hawaii, a new ski boat.

the 3% annual salary increases aren't keeping up, hence more debt.
Household debt payments as a percentage of disposable income has gone from over 13% around the housing crash, to 9% now, and it’s been under 10% for over half a decade, and had NEVER been under 10% dating back to 1980 when the data series began. So reality appears to be literally the opposite of what you’re arguing.

St Louis Fed Data
This post was edited on 4/9 at 4:41 pm


down time
Member since Oct 2013
970 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
I can find charts like yours saying the opposite.

statistics on consumer debt


rocket31
Toledo Fan
Member since Jan 2008
39685 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
inflation largely depends on who you are or what you want to be.

if you are poverty class then inflation is at near-zero just like they tell us it is... the price of a whopper, and netflix and candy bars aren’t changing much.

but if you want to live in a desirable area, its harder to afford school or real estate or a newer car



down time
Member since Oct 2013
970 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
I like sport fishing, travel, golf, and not living in the hood. Inflation to me could be the boat I've always wanted. (125%+ higher than it was 10 years ago)

It isn't the price of a TV.


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11
buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
34469 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

I can find charts like yours saying the opposite.

statistics on consumer debt
Your chart doesn’t “say the opposite” it just shows an aggregate figure that in isolation is pretty worthless since factors like population and specifically adult population, interest rates, assets, income, etc., are important.

In other words, while there has been an increase in debt, because of all of those factors above, the “cost” of the debt has decreased pretty significantly.
This post was edited on 4/10 at 2:11 am


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14
evil cockroach
LSU Fan
27.98N // 86.92E
Member since Nov 2007
5761 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

there was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time
is that why a heavy duty pick up truck costs over $100,000 now?


G The Tiger Fan
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
80873 posts
 Online 

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

and you see that now where inflation is at 1.4% for this year.
Riiiiight.


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20
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
74459 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

is that why a heavy duty pick up truck costs over $100,000 now?



Terrible gauge of inflation, by the way. There isn’t an apples to apples comparison on vehicles since their features are constantly changing and improving.


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