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re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Posted on 4/8/21 at 10:37 am to buckeye_vol
Posted on 4/8/21 at 10:37 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Except wealth inequality has been showing signs of decreasing, at the very least not increasing.
is there not evidence for a K-shaped recovery in lieu of our injection of capital into the economy.
Seems the stock market grew at a record pace, almost equivalent to the M2 money supply expansion, as unemployment went up, if I recall. It would seem inevitable to me this promotes a strong disconnect between those with assets and those without.
This post was edited on 4/8/21 at 10:38 am
1
Posted on 4/8/21 at 10:38 am to slackster
quote:
just like to give you shite for hating so strongly on fiat
I just don't quite understand how people can trust holding fiat all things considering
I don't hate it as I believe it's useful for spending but I'm going to choose to save with something else
Posted on 4/8/21 at 10:44 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:I mean there are a lot of reasonable arguments for changes or improvements in the measurement and estimation of inflation as it is a latent construct, often with multiple orders of latent constructs with many manifest variables measured with error and measured and estimates in such fundamentally different ways (e.g., some account for quality). And on top of that there are variances in the variables “inflationary impact” across time, regions, socio-economics levels, and other demographics.
i think the big argument is that how we view inflation needs to change
Given all of those complexities, uncertainties, and disagreements, the idea that “how we view inflation needs to change” is reasonable if it relates to those factors (measurement, estimation, etc). But it’s unreasonable to change it on a conceptual and definitional level as the concept and definition itself is simple, logical, and pretty universally understood.
Posted on 4/8/21 at 10:51 am to Ross
quote:I was referring to overall over the last decade with the accommodative monetary policies worldwide. I think you’re right that the last year, at the very least the pressures have pushed more towards inequality. That said, I think those pressures will weaken as economic growth accelerates, and there are some fiscal policies that appear to be in the right direction in terms of more effectively bringing the bottom-up (direct payments for children vs. inefficient and more wasteful welfare policies that disincentivize a lot of ideal behaviors).
Seems the stock market grew at a record pace, almost equivalent to the M2 money supply expansion, as unemployment went up, if I recall. It would seem inevitable to me this promotes a strong disconnect between those with assets and those without.
Posted on 4/8/21 at 11:29 am to buckeye_vol
I do think they'll continue a "bottom up" approach
today:
Powell: Pandemic Hit Lower-Income Workers Most, Fed Very Concerned
Powell: Millions of People Will Have Hard Time Finding Way Back Into Workforce
today:
Powell: Pandemic Hit Lower-Income Workers Most, Fed Very Concerned
Powell: Millions of People Will Have Hard Time Finding Way Back Into Workforce
Posted on 4/9/21 at 9:29 am to rocket31
PPI much higher than estimates...shocking
Posted on 4/9/21 at 10:14 am to rocket31
quote:And CPI is going to rise significantly even if prices don’t rise at all since we’re now in the paradoxical phase of traditional inflation measurements when the baseline reference months for the traditional YOY comparison had significant price decreases during the pandemic lockdowns. This is why the fed’s decision to target a long-run average inflation was an improvement.
PPI much higher than estimates...shocking
But I expect the inflation fear-mongering to ignore the fact that this data artifact in the coming months, while also ignoring the data pre- and post-artifact period that contradict the fear-mongering.
Posted on 4/9/21 at 12:05 pm to rocket31
quote:
PPI much higher than estimates...shocking
Highest year over year number since 2011. We all remember the rampant inflation that followed...
Posted on 4/9/21 at 12:39 pm to slackster
Look at a few professions average salary percentage increases for the past 10 years.
2010 RN - 67000/yr ave
2021 RN - 77500/yr ave
2010 S&P500 SPY at $120-$130
2021 S&P500 SPY at $410
The worker is getting crushed
2010 RN - 67000/yr ave
2021 RN - 77500/yr ave
2010 S&P500 SPY at $120-$130
2021 S&P500 SPY at $410
The worker is getting crushed
Posted on 4/9/21 at 12:45 pm to down time
quote:
The worker is getting crushed
Always has over long periods of time. Makes sense though - stocks make you an owner of the company, not an employee.
Posted on 4/9/21 at 1:09 pm to slackster
instead of stock, then compare a nice townhouse in a "trendy and safe" neighborhood, medical care, tuition, annual trip to Hawaii, a new ski boat.
the 3% annual salary increases aren't keeping up, hence more debt.
the 3% annual salary increases aren't keeping up, hence more debt.
Posted on 4/9/21 at 1:39 pm to down time
Well people can stop spending so much on BS if this is a concern
Posted on 4/9/21 at 4:39 pm to down time
quote:Household debt payments as a percentage of disposable income has gone from over 13% around the housing crash, to 9% now, and it’s been under 10% for over half a decade, and had NEVER been under 10% dating back to 1980 when the data series began. So reality appears to be literally the opposite of what you’re arguing.
instead of stock, then compare a nice townhouse in a "trendy and safe" neighborhood, medical care, tuition, annual trip to Hawaii, a new ski boat.
the 3% annual salary increases aren't keeping up, hence more debt.
St Louis Fed Data
This post was edited on 4/9/21 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 4/9/21 at 5:45 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 4/9/21 at 6:25 pm to down time
inflation largely depends on who you are or what you want to be.
if you are poverty class then inflation is at near-zero just like they tell us it is... the price of a whopper, and netflix and candy bars aren’t changing much.
but if you want to live in a desirable area, its harder to afford school or real estate or a newer car
if you are poverty class then inflation is at near-zero just like they tell us it is... the price of a whopper, and netflix and candy bars aren’t changing much.
but if you want to live in a desirable area, its harder to afford school or real estate or a newer car
Posted on 4/9/21 at 6:38 pm to rocket31
I like sport fishing, travel, golf, and not living in the hood. Inflation to me could be the boat I've always wanted. (125%+ higher than it was 10 years ago)
It isn't the price of a TV.
It isn't the price of a TV.
Posted on 4/10/21 at 1:24 am to down time
quote:Your chart doesn’t “say the opposite” it just shows an aggregate figure that in isolation is pretty worthless since factors like population and specifically adult population, interest rates, assets, income, etc., are important.
I can find charts like yours saying the opposite.
statistics on consumer debt
In other words, while there has been an increase in debt, because of all of those factors above, the “cost” of the debt has decreased pretty significantly.
This post was edited on 4/10/21 at 2:11 am
Posted on 4/10/21 at 5:24 am to Strannix
quote:is that why a heavy duty pick up truck costs over $100,000 now?
there was a time when monetary policy aggregates were important determinants of inflation and that has not been the case for a long time
Posted on 4/10/21 at 6:39 am to Strannix
quote:Riiiiight.
and you see that now where inflation is at 1.4% for this year.
Posted on 4/10/21 at 9:50 am to evil cockroach
quote:
is that why a heavy duty pick up truck costs over $100,000 now?
Terrible gauge of inflation, by the way. There isn’t an apples to apples comparison on vehicles since their features are constantly changing and improving.
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