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Strannix
USA Fan
Banana Republic
Member since Dec 2012
36551 posts
 Online 

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
5.2% is what they're admitting, get ready for double digits.....

LINK


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
7513 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Everybody’s eyeing owners equivalent rent to heat up a ton next year. Too much trickery and politics to predict anything at this point. The Feds inflation models have never worked.


Strannix
USA Fan
Banana Republic
Member since Dec 2012
36551 posts
 Online 

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

Too much trickery and politics to predict anything at this point. The Feds inflation models have never worked.


Unless they can unprint a few trillion claims I dont see a way out


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
7513 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
That’s effectively what tightening does it just won’t happen for multiple years more than likely.


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down time
Member since Oct 2013
970 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
How do you figure the credit market cannot collapse?


TigerTatorTots
LSU Fan
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
78030 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

The Feds inflation models have never worked.


Is Wutang joining the good side?


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
7513 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
My entire portfolio minus cash and a few active trades is setup for secular inflation. The supply chains and labor issues are far worse than I ever believed and we have politicians actively sabatoging growth and covid hysteria isn't going away unfortunately. I'm not on a side but the signals are all extremely wonkish right now for how this plays out over the next 12-18 months.


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
7513 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

How do you figure the credit market cannot collapse?



It can we just know there would be an immediate move to step in a stabilize spreads after they blowout. They were purchasing fallen angel bonds at par last year they'll just have to stretch what they purchase again to signal they're "doing more."


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TigerTatorTots
LSU Fan
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
78030 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

I'm not on a side but the signals are all extremely wonkish right now for how this plays out over the next 12-18 months.
Sounds like you are trying to say us inflation sky screams at the beginning of the year may have been right

I'll allow it, you're forgiven


GREENHEAD22
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
16148 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

setup for secular inflation


Care to expand on this? I would love someone to give a little class on what to invest in when expecting inflation.



wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
7513 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"


Sorry this pic sucks. Commodities and trend following bonds are the best performing strategies. But trend following in general is the best way to hedge. If inflation resets bond and tech stocks I'm planning on putting all of my cash into long dated options in HYG and QQQ when the IV is completely drained.
This post was edited on 9/13 at 2:46 pm


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wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
7513 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
I mean I see hyberbolic panic about inflation in the 10-20% range and it gets a little ridiculous. The price increases this year were very predictable it's the next several years that is unclear. We'll see, it looks like the QQQ and bonds are at odds with the inflation narrative but we all know mispricing happens all the time.


down time
Member since Oct 2013
970 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Can you give a couple examples of the options strategy you personally use to hedge "secular" inflation?


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RedStickBR
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2009
14563 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Good read:

LINK


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
7513 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
I can’t find recent estimates but the demand function is deteriorating. I think they’re basically saying real gdp will be negative if you factor in new inflation estimates above 4%.


RedStickBR
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2009
14563 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
I haven’t seen that yet, but I don’t doubt it. Can you imagine if they overcooked this thing so much so that Real GDP is negative this year?

Also a good read:

LINK /
This post was edited on 9/15 at 10:54 am


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Nguyener
USA Fan
Kame House
Member since Mar 2013
18210 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
quote:

People have been worrying about runaway inflation since 2009 and it simply hasn’t even come close to materializing in this country.


Mmhmm


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
7513 posts

re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Why are you mhmming? He’s exactly right


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