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Started By
Message
re: Fed hides weekly M1 supply, says "money doesn't matter"
Posted on 10/13/21 at 11:21 am to rocket31
Posted on 10/13/21 at 11:21 am to rocket31
quote:
he's been so wrong, he now copes by lying on this forum. it's been quite the melt for anyone paying attention
Wrong about what? I’ve been of the belief that long-run inflation will stay well-behaved. I’m not sure there is anything that can happen in 12 months that proves me right or wrong on that thesis.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 11:22 am to rocket31
quote:
I can bump several threads and do that daily at this point lol
You probably wouldn’t believe me that I’m on your side, but I like to call out your hyperbole.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 11:23 am to Strannix
quote:
Strannix
Ahh, my favorite poster, the guy that seems to think this is all Biden’s fault.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 11:25 am to slackster
quote:
I’ve been of the belief that long-run inflation will stay well-behaved
yea I mean I agree with that but it's not going to "behave" anytime soon
Posted on 10/13/21 at 11:30 am to rocket31
“Behaved” is a vague term, I have no clue what it means.
There were some that thought transitory inflation meant we’d see a period of deflation and prices would come back to 2019 levels. Absolutely not going to happen.
Others just thought it meant we’d get back to nominal 2% and deal with the price increases as cost of doing business in saving the economy during COVID. I also doubt that. This school of thought really hitched its wagon to seeing some sort of inflection downwards in September’s read. Now we just push it out yet another month and keep using the word “transitory”
I don’t think the American public is buying the word “transitory” for a second anymore, and when people expect inflation they make purchases and pull out low interest debt that act as inflation hedges which essentially makes it a positive feedback loop, in my opinion.
There were some that thought transitory inflation meant we’d see a period of deflation and prices would come back to 2019 levels. Absolutely not going to happen.
Others just thought it meant we’d get back to nominal 2% and deal with the price increases as cost of doing business in saving the economy during COVID. I also doubt that. This school of thought really hitched its wagon to seeing some sort of inflection downwards in September’s read. Now we just push it out yet another month and keep using the word “transitory”
I don’t think the American public is buying the word “transitory” for a second anymore, and when people expect inflation they make purchases and pull out low interest debt that act as inflation hedges which essentially makes it a positive feedback loop, in my opinion.
This post was edited on 10/13/21 at 11:32 am
Posted on 10/13/21 at 11:50 am to Ross
LOL at anyone thinking price increases are transitory. Its the new norm
Posted on 10/13/21 at 11:54 am to Ross
quote:
“Behaved” is a vague term, I have no clue what it means.
There were some that thought transitory inflation meant we’d see a period of deflation and prices would come back to 2019 levels. Absolutely not going to happen.
Others just thought it meant we’d get back to nominal 2% and deal with the price increases as cost of doing business in saving the economy during COVID. I also doubt that. This school of thought really hitched its wagon to seeing some sort of inflection downwards in September’s read. Now we just push it out yet another month and keep using the word “transitory”
I think inflation over the next 9 years will be 2.5% annualized or lower.
If it’s 5.4% now, and let’s say it’s 3.5% next year, that means I’m expecting 2% or so for the next 8 years to hit that <2.5% 10-yr number.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 12:04 pm to TigerTatorTots
there's a new inflation thread on the ot everyday now lol
Posted on 10/13/21 at 12:08 pm to rocket31
Jobs report comes up looking like shite; Fed can’t taper it’s asset purchases or raise rates
CPI comes in hot and hotter than expected; Fed has to taper and plan to raise rates
Classic sweaty dude with two button meme. Keep the money flowing, Jerome
CPI comes in hot and hotter than expected; Fed has to taper and plan to raise rates
Classic sweaty dude with two button meme. Keep the money flowing, Jerome
Posted on 10/13/21 at 12:10 pm to Ross
the job thing is a cultural shift that was explained away by "enhanced unemployment"
they do not know what to do now that many people realize they were being exploited for their labor
they do not know what to do now that many people realize they were being exploited for their labor
Posted on 10/13/21 at 12:13 pm to rocket31
When wage increases aren’t meeting increases in COL that was always a recipe for disaster
Posted on 10/13/21 at 12:18 pm to Ross
quote:
Jobs report comes up looking like shite; Fed can’t taper it’s asset purchases or raise rates
I don’t believe the September jobs number will impact their decision to taper. Private payrolls were solid enough.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 12:19 pm to Ross
yup. why work for a low wage if you can't afford cool shite like a house or a new car anyways?
you're poor regardless; might as well just collect the govt check at that point
you're poor regardless; might as well just collect the govt check at that point
Posted on 10/13/21 at 12:58 pm to slackster
Since the circle jerk stopped I thought I'd jump in here
The Federal Reserve has not changed their mandate and structural employment has permanently shifted down and the rate of change is negative for consumer prices. Why would they be tappering? The only thing to add on to it is the TGA is drained so just another variable. You can't ease if there's nothing to ease
quote:
I don’t believe the September jobs number will impact their decision to taper. Private payrolls were solid enough.
The Federal Reserve has not changed their mandate and structural employment has permanently shifted down and the rate of change is negative for consumer prices. Why would they be tappering? The only thing to add on to it is the TGA is drained so just another variable. You can't ease if there's nothing to ease
Posted on 10/13/21 at 1:49 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
The Federal Reserve has not changed their mandate and structural employment has permanently shifted down and the rate of change is negative for consumer prices. Why would they be tappering?
Powell said he was looking for substantial job gains, and he was using December 2020 for the baseline iirc. He basically admitted they were close in the September presser, and they just wanted a bit more gains. Unemployment was down and the jobs number increased on the September report. I know it missed expectations, but I’d be shocked if they don’t decide to announce the taper in November, beginning in December.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 5:20 pm to slackster
I have a really hard time they taper faster than GFC1. They can sit on disinflation for several years if they need to. Demand is really the issue right now --They won't pull back stimulus knowing they have no help from Congress (potentially). You're already seeing GDP estimates pulled down with no signs of improvement on the supply side. We'll see the taper tantrum round two is going to be lit.
Posted on 10/13/21 at 8:21 pm to Ross
Really good podcast on we study billionaires with Pysh and Parker Lewis from yesterday that is relative to this topic. I feel like Parker’s take on money printing, debt, fiat currency, etc is close to what rational people are starting to believe. Give it a listen if you have sufficient windshield time.
Posted on 10/14/21 at 10:18 am to BLM
Janet Yelllen and her ilk live in a fantasy land, they dont understand basic economics
Posted on 10/14/21 at 12:22 pm to Strannix
Of all the posts to downvote
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