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re: Exxon

Posted on 10/28/22 at 1:03 pm to
Posted by TooSober
AA Meeting
Member since Oct 2015
627 posts
Posted on 10/28/22 at 1:03 pm to
Enjoy the current ride up to $123 and sell half there.
Posted by Turf Taint
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2021
6010 posts
Posted on 10/28/22 at 1:19 pm to
XOM people turnover rate is now double its peers.

Culture and unwillingness to adapt to inevitable energy transition cited as primary reasons.

How this translates to DCF for XOM, not exactly sure, but it may suggest selling is better than buying.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 10/28/22 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

I'm jealous of all you guys that bought 20 plus years ago.


A friend of mine’s grandson said something similar when I told him when I bought AAPL, and considering dividends, I have a negative cost basis. So they’re pretty much paying me to own the stock now. But the flip side is… it means that I’m old!

Looking back, I think that the hardest thing when you’re in your 20s and 30s is to hold an investment through good times and bad (as long as the fundamentals of the company remain promising). For me at least, I had to really fight the tendency to be short-sighted and get caught up in the moment. Anybody else feel that way?
Posted by fallguy_1978
Best States #50
Member since Feb 2018
53099 posts
Posted on 10/28/22 at 1:56 pm to
I've owned a decent chunk of AAPL for over a decade. I had some dumb trades too though. I had a good bit of cheap NVDA and AMD like 12 years ago and got bored waiting on them.
This post was edited on 10/28/22 at 1:57 pm
Posted by Triple Bogey
19th Green
Member since May 2017
6569 posts
Posted on 10/28/22 at 2:44 pm to
Sell covered calls.. Hell I'll buy them from you
This post was edited on 10/28/22 at 2:49 pm
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6672 posts
Posted on 10/28/22 at 5:20 pm to
Exxons ceo doesn't care about attrition. He has another 3B to go in open reduction so he can keep his word to the board.
The last 3B is people and it's bloody.
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
14881 posts
Posted on 10/28/22 at 8:42 pm to
You should definitely sell at least 30% and diversify into an index fund.
Posted by turkish
Member since Aug 2016
2266 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 8:06 am to
Can you share a link?
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6672 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 9:00 am to
LINK


Page 12. The chart states it and Darren Woods states it underneath.

Basically back in covid he committed 9B in structural opex savings to board and shareholders. He is hell bent to deliver. The last 3B are going to be painful as frick and likely will have reliability impacts in the future. Exxon is trying it's best to cut red tape that impacts competitive advantage, but HQ can't get out of it's old mold so cutting people at the plant level is the only knob they know.
Posted by turkish
Member since Aug 2016
2266 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 11:22 am to
Thank you, kind sir!
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
57916 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

There have been lots of buying opportunities in oil and gas the past 3 years. The commodity is very cyclical and takes 3-5 years to balance supply/demand. Obviously you can buy and hold but I’d probably pair back trades heading into 2024. Supplies should start to ease and oil typically gets over produced when the swing occurs.



Yep. I bought my XOM when it was $35-$45 after the market dropped during the shutdown (and was told I was crazy by some posters on this board when I said XOM below $45 was a steal). I have them reinvesting, I'll likely never sell them. My only regret is that I didn't have the excess funds at the time to buy more.
Posted by JKLazurus
Member since Jun 2016
261 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

my grandfather retired from Exxon in 1968 with 200 shares of stock. Never purchased another share after that, and did not reinvest his dividends. When he died in 2005, he passed on 6400 shares to his four daughters.


How is that possible?
Posted by omegaman66
greenwell springs
Member since Oct 2007
26314 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

I want nothing to do with Exxon. The administration is targeting gas prices and oil industry in general. We know oil is going to move into a contracting industry, it’s already there. And Exxon is behind on competing in other energy paths. Add in that employees are jumping ship left and right from HQ and the big Houston office. I see a new post daily on LinkedIn of someone from XOM posing in front of the cube building and talking about them leaving Exxon for Amazon or Google or another tech company. The CEO got blasted by saying they wouldn’t compete with tech companies for employees just last week too


A lot of the employees that have been leaving are leaving because they want to lock in their lump sum because high inflation which it adjusts for could have them getting less if they work longer. More time but less money.
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6672 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 4:13 pm to
I haven't met one exxon employee that wasnt retirement eligible who left because of lump sum.

Most don't even understand how the interest rates affect their pension
Posted by omegaman66
greenwell springs
Member since Oct 2007
26314 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 4:30 pm to
I work at a small plant and I know of a handful just here that retired earlier than they had originally planned for fear of working for free for a couple of years.
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6672 posts
Posted on 10/29/22 at 7:13 pm to
Yea. They were retirement eligible though and kept their annuitant benefits. And it isn't fear, it is reality of a lump sum pension.

The attrition discussed above is wide ranging from 5 to 20 year tenured employees. They aren't leaving because of their lump sum shrinking with the interest rates
Posted by Warfox
B.R. Native (now in MA)
Member since Apr 2017
3764 posts
Posted on 10/30/22 at 11:18 am to
Exxon ain’t going anywhere. You could consider selling some and buying back on the dip that is coming with this recession.

Or you could just hold. It will continue to be great stock, even if it is outperformed a bit by the overall energy sector.

Stocks like Exxon are die-hard long-term growers with sound fundamentals that pay good dividends.

Either choice is acceptable IMO.
This post was edited on 10/30/22 at 11:19 am
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6672 posts
Posted on 10/30/22 at 2:58 pm to
The dividend is great but this stock hasn’t grown in over a decade. We ar e just back to 2006 numbers.

The 30B stock buy back may help things
Posted by LSUGUMBO
Shreveport, LA
Member since Sep 2005
9502 posts
Posted on 10/30/22 at 6:44 pm to
quote:

How is that possible?


2/1 splits in 76, 81, 87, 97 and 2001
Posted by dragginass
Member since Jan 2013
3182 posts
Posted on 10/30/22 at 8:23 pm to
quote:

The dividend is great but this stock hasn’t grown in over a decade. We ar e just back to 2006 numbers.



The market is lagging reality. The market has been driven by the same mindset that dropped XOM from the DJIA. XOM free cash flow almost matched that of APPL last quarter, yet the stock prices, market cap, and P/E ratios are completely perverted. XOM is producing cash, literally, and the market will catch on eventually. Probably around the same time as a cold winter with rolling blackouts.
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