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re: Dow testing 29K floor
Posted on 9/27/22 at 12:57 pm to tiggerthetooth
Posted on 9/27/22 at 12:57 pm to tiggerthetooth
quote:
tiggerthetooth
Everything in your post is pure speculation. I'm not going to agree or disagree as there are some valid points, but it is all speculation about where the entire world is heading.
0
Posted on 9/27/22 at 2:35 pm to deathvalleytiger10
Not everyone has 30yrs to get their 7% return.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 3:01 pm to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Not everyone has 30yrs to get their 7% return.
Of course not, but more than likely, anyone that has been invested for many years and who continues to invest now, will see positive returns over the next 3 to 5 years.
What is down is down, but investments made now and as we go forward, could very well be up substantially in the next 5 years from this pull back.
If someone needs money now, then they needed to be more diversified than just the market.
Long term investors should be fine.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 3:06 pm to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Not everyone has 30yrs to get their 7% return.
Agreed, which is why you should get more conservative in your investments the closer you get to retirement.
If you're taking a massive drawdown close to your retirement age due to still being invested in volatile securities, then that's on you.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 3:25 pm to deathvalleytiger10
What is down is down but investments made now and as we go forward, could very well be susbstantially more down in the next 5 years after this pullback.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 3:45 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
What is down is down but investments made now and as we go forward, could very well be susbstantially more down in the next 5 years after this pullback.
Sure this could be the worst performance period in the US market history. If we are down substantially from here in 5 years then there are likely 2 possible outcomes.
1. My continual buying over that period will yield huge returns (5+ years after that) from the buying at depressed levels. This assumes I keep my job which if we have a 6 year terrible market likely means extremely large unemployment levels and low GDP.
2. The other outcome is that the market doesn't ever recovery. If the market never recovers well we likely have much bigger problems.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 4:41 pm to bod312
When you zoom out on the US markets from say 1980 or beyond the chart looks absolutely absurd. This market seems to have been ridiculously inflated since ‘recovering’ from 2008. Everything prior to 2008 looks a bit more ‘normal’.
So, you can agree with that and say “quantitative easing”, or you can disagree and say innovations in tech have justified the parabolic move where P/E ratios in the hundreds and thousands became the norm.
Thoughts?
So, you can agree with that and say “quantitative easing”, or you can disagree and say innovations in tech have justified the parabolic move where P/E ratios in the hundreds and thousands became the norm.
Thoughts?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 5:37 pm to wutangfinancial
Anything is possible, but what is probable?
If you are in the market, you are placing a bet. I’m betting on the US long term and that the markets will reach new highs over time.
If you are in the market, you are placing a bet. I’m betting on the US long term and that the markets will reach new highs over time.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 5:51 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
When you zoom out on the US markets from say 1980 or beyond the chart looks absolutely absurd.
Based on what? Absolute value, returns, relative value basis? Of course on an absolute value perspective it looks ridiculous because it shouldn't be on a linear scale. For example the SP500 in 1981 was around $120. If the market had 100% return in 1981 it would have increased $120. In 2022 (at $4k sp500) a 3% gain is $120. So in this example one year has 100% return and the other has 3% yet their increase on the linear scale is equal. Based on math you would expect an exponential curve with it getting steeper as time progresses.
I do find it interesting how everyone talks about the high return since 2008 due to the 14 year bull run but rarely is the lost decade of the 2000s mentioned.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:52 pm to iAmBatman
quote:
wrong again LINK still not in the top 5
Just following up
How is what i said wrong? This tweet is first 184 days
Your numbers are the entire year
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:16 pm to skewbs
quote:
This time it's different!! Said everyone in every market downturn ever in history.
I don't think we've reached capitulation yet but I do like to see people saying "It's different this time!"
I also try to keep in mind that stock sales don't happen in a vacuum. Someone's on the other end buying what you're selling.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:26 pm to bod312
People like to be micro-pessimistic in a macro-optimistic world. The market will be fine over time.
I’ll keep throwing my share in optimistically hoping in 2055 the market did exactly what it’s supposed to do and exactly what it’s always done.
I’ll keep throwing my share in optimistically hoping in 2055 the market did exactly what it’s supposed to do and exactly what it’s always done.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 11:27 pm
Posted on 9/28/22 at 9:06 am to I Bleed Garnet
Funny that '31 and '37, and '40 are on their because that's the decade we are mirroing the most not the late '70s
Posted on 9/28/22 at 9:59 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Funny that '31 and '37, and '40 are on their because that's the decade we are mirroing the most not the late '70s
Interesting
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