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Message
re: Dow testing 29K floor
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:52 am to iAmBatman
Posted on 9/27/22 at 7:52 am to iAmBatman
quote:
what's it like to consistently be wrong all the time?
Sorry what?
So maybe Charlie Bilello is wrong?
Well okay based on your site
It’s 6th with still much more to fall
I really hope it doesn’t though. I’m losing tons everyday
1
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:16 am to iAmBatman
quote:
what's it like to consistently be wrong all the time?
No idea why dont you fill us in.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:29 am to I Bleed Garnet
quote:
I Bleed Garnet
Sorry if this comes off as rude, but your posts read like you're either an overly emotional female, or a teenager. Maybe both. Everyone with a brain and beating heart understands "this is bad" which is all you seem to say in these threads.
I know you want to make money. We all do. Which is why we are here. The market goes down from time to time... that's how these things work.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 8:30 am
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:36 am to skewbs
quote:
The market goes down from time to time... that's how these things work.
Uh, not like this. This is definitely an abnormal period of time in the markets and everyone knows that. This isn't just a casual down trend that will swing back.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:41 am to tiggerthetooth
quote:
Uh, not like this. This is definitely an abnormal period of time in the markets and everyone knows that. This isn't just a casual down trend that will swing back.
but the almost 29% return for 2019 was normal?
can't have your cake and eat it too
volatility is literally what the market is all about
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:46 am to slackster
quote:
In 5 years it won’t matter though.
When the market crashed in 1929, it didn't reach that market level again until the 1950s.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:56 am to iAmBatman
quote:
but the almost 29% return for 2019 was normal?
Obviously not and I never said it was.
quote:
can't have your cake and eat it too
How does this apply to my statement that this isn't a casual drop.
quote:
volatility is literally what the market is all about
And is ALL volatility the same? Obviously not.
Your blood pressure goes up, it goes down, but everyone knows there's a healthy range in which it goes up or down and if it drops below or exceeds that healthy range then you may have a serious medical issue. I think it's safe to say the market is the same way.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 8:57 am
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:23 am to Strannix
Just remember that many of the people on this board were all into crypto.
We see how that turned out.
Our economy is in the dumps and the stocks should reflect that. The only thing that spurs the economy now is the introduction of cheap money. Well I believe that option has been used up. Revolving credit is once again going up thanks to everything becoming expensive with inflation. Eventually the bubble will truly pop. It’s not doom and gloom. It’s a reality.
Buy low and sale high.
We see how that turned out.
Our economy is in the dumps and the stocks should reflect that. The only thing that spurs the economy now is the introduction of cheap money. Well I believe that option has been used up. Revolving credit is once again going up thanks to everything becoming expensive with inflation. Eventually the bubble will truly pop. It’s not doom and gloom. It’s a reality.
Buy low and sale high.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:24 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
When the market crashed in 1929, it didn't reach that market level again until the 1950s.
Yet, if you were in the market in 1928 and stayed in the market till 1955, you would still have averaged a return of 7.43%/yr.
Far too many people are running for the exits right now. I am steadily buying.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:34 am to skewbs
quote:
Sorry if this comes off as rude, but your posts read like you're either an overly emotional female, or a teenager. Maybe both. Everyone with a brain and beating heart understands "this is bad" which is all you seem to say in these threads.
It’s okay
Just voicing my displeasure
Not sure why it’s a bad thing. No need to call names, but you’ve said it nicer than other
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:35 am to tiggerthetooth
quote:
This is definitely an abnormal period of time in the markets and everyone knows that.
This time it's different!! Said everyone in every market downturn ever in history.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:25 am to skewbs
quote:
This time it's different!! Said everyone in every market downturn ever in history.
You do understand abnormal conditions can occur more than once, right?
You're also completely oblivious to the geopolitical implications of the current time. Our markets haven't ever experienced what's happening across the globe.
Your chuckling to yourself thinking this will all just regress to the mean in the end, like it "always does". Yes, during the age of globalism it always did, but "globalism", the economic system the US led is over and ending.
If your economy is going to grow you have to have people of working age, capital, and resources. The US is okay in that regard, but the rest of the world largely won't be. Just watch what happens to Germany over the next 6-8 months...it will be anything BUT normal.
You're still thinking the world to come is going to be the same as it was from the 1980s to Covid-19 pandemic. It's just not, and how that's going to effect markets is unknown. There's going to be a transition phase as the US has to re-adjust how and where they do business relative to security (where they can run ships and how much security is necessary, etc.).
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:43 am to skewbs
quote:
This time it's different!! Said everyone in every market downturn ever in history.
There have been a lot of "this time is different" posts lately. There are also a lot of posts were people can't differentiate the difference between the market and the economy and how they don't necessarily move in sync.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 10:53 am to bod312
quote:
There have been a lot of "this time is different" posts lately
It's always different you fool
The federal government is targetting higher unemployment. The price insensitive buyers/sellers of equities will become imbalanced. If you like massive drawdowns then good for you. Most people invested are older and can't tolerate that.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:03 am to wutangfinancial
I think we have a good bit more to go on the downside but what's different now is that technological progress is accelerating at a really rapid clip nowadays.
This is different from the dot com bubble bursting because the internet infrastructure wasn't there to support tech businesses. Things are much different today and automation and network effects have spread into every sector.
My guess is that this is just a covid hangover and once that shakes out we'll see revenue and expansion of multiples again.
This is different from the dot com bubble bursting because the internet infrastructure wasn't there to support tech businesses. Things are much different today and automation and network effects have spread into every sector.
My guess is that this is just a covid hangover and once that shakes out we'll see revenue and expansion of multiples again.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:08 am to Diseasefreeforall
quote:
My guess is that this is just a covid hangover
Not completely. This is a liquidity problem. The insane amount of liquidity crammed into the economy because of COVID has caused the house of cards cause by QE and Congressional over-spending to tumble harder and faster than it would have otherwise.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:15 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
If you like massive drawdowns then good for you.
You should be invested with a certain level of risk that you are comfortable accepting. What are you advocating, timing the market? Good luck, the probability of one being successful in timing the market is very small historically but hey maybe "this time is different."
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:31 am to Suntiger
quote:quote:
I've had a bet with my FIL since May that the Dow would be at 24 by the end of the year. The next 30-60 days will tell whether I was too bearish or not.
I don’t think we get that low. I’d say 28 at worst, but I don’t think we actually fall below 29. Nothing backing that up, just a feeling.
Well, my post from last week is aging like sour milk.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 11:32 am to Diseasefreeforall
quote:
This is different from the dot com bubble bursting because the internet infrastructure wasn't there to support tech businesses. Things are much different today and automation and network effects have spread into every sector.
Can a world with limited capital afford to invest in businesses that take awhile to develop and make a profit? Uber type companies would be impossible in the coming years.
Which tech do you see really changing the economy within the next 5 years? Are you talking about fintech? AI?
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 12:18 pm to Diseasefreeforall
quote:
expansion of multiples again.
If you believe equity investors care about mulitples and earnings you've lost your mind. There's about 90% of this board that say you should never try and time the market. This means the only variable in their investment process is 1) Do I have cash? 2) Do I need cash?
What's different about this market versus the tech bubble is passive flows are >60% of the market, stock buybacks and an extreme concentration into a few firms and the general illiquidity of the broader market as a consequence.
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