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Started By
Message
re: Dollar General-DG down 29%
Posted on 8/29/24 at 6:40 pm to baobabtiger
Posted on 8/29/24 at 6:40 pm to baobabtiger
bought 5 shares at 85. I'm All in. 
0
Posted on 8/29/24 at 7:07 pm to Lgrnwd
quote:
Anyone who walked inside a Dollar General 5 years ago and decided “I want to own this company.” would have almost tripled their money. Just saying
Chart I looked at showed the current price is the same as it was in 2016 and a third of what it was three years ago.
Nonetheless, I suspect they’re getting squeezed by succumbing to the food desert shamers. There’s no way their current push to offer fresh produce in 5,000 stores will be profitable, and as someone else said there’s no way they’re going to outcompete the likes of Temu for cheap junk and tchotchkes.
Posted on 8/29/24 at 7:12 pm to lsuconnman
I can’t imagine how much they lose to theft. Anyone I’ve ever been in only has one cashier and she’s usually not at the front. Seems like you could walk out with half the store if you wanted
Posted on 8/29/24 at 7:31 pm to bigjoe1
quote:
think they have the same problem as Walgreens and Macy's and other retailers. America is just overstored. DG just has way to damn many stores many within blocks of one another
I drove past 5 of them on the way home. Not even a particularly long commute.
Posted on 8/29/24 at 8:46 pm to Bard
quote:
If consumers were really that bad off already, every other retailer would be feeling it as well.
If consumers were that bad off it seems like they'd be benefitting.
Posted on 8/29/24 at 8:52 pm to makersmark1
quote:
How do they differentiate themselves in online age?
It’s a hard business. I’ve got nothing against it, but it may be better to find an outlet that sells high margin stuff that people can’t stop buying.
They don't need to and that isn't their model. I think they will be fine long term. They aren't particularly cheap either. It's just the only place some people have to shop.
Posted on 8/29/24 at 9:04 pm to Allthatfades
quote:
Seems like you could walk out with half the store if you wanted
Probably wouldn’t even get you over the felony theft threshold.
Posted on 8/29/24 at 9:08 pm to baobabtiger
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Posted on 8/29/24 at 10:09 pm to fallguy_1978
Low income shoppers are getting squeezed big time right now. They really do not have room for discretionary spending. Buy rates are dropping across income groups but low income are most impacted.
DGs biggest weakness is the lack of a tailwind from online. Walmarts numbers would be average if it wasn’t for their e-commerce business cranking +20% growth. DG has practically no online sales albeit they love to push DGMedia Network to serve up ads and deals.
Dollar General still has better velocity per outlet than Family Dollar albeit the gap is closing.
Long-term, there’s plenty of upside in the dollar channel. They will keep tweaking store formats and every new store will be a much better shopping experience than the ones that make up the bulk of outlets today.
DGs biggest weakness is the lack of a tailwind from online. Walmarts numbers would be average if it wasn’t for their e-commerce business cranking +20% growth. DG has practically no online sales albeit they love to push DGMedia Network to serve up ads and deals.
Dollar General still has better velocity per outlet than Family Dollar albeit the gap is closing.
Long-term, there’s plenty of upside in the dollar channel. They will keep tweaking store formats and every new store will be a much better shopping experience than the ones that make up the bulk of outlets today.
Posted on 8/29/24 at 11:41 pm to baobabtiger
quote:
They had a big earnings miss and is blaming the consumer being tapped out. Seems like a good one to snatch up. What’s the boards opinion?
Their Urban City growth strategy has been a dismal failure. They are starting to shutter them across the US (see New Orleans East) so I would wait a bit as it will dip further before I would buy back in.
Posted on 8/30/24 at 7:24 am to lsuconnman
quote:
Nonetheless, I suspect they’re getting squeezed by succumbing to the food desert shamers. There’s no way their current push to offer fresh produce in 5,000 stores will be profitable, and as someone else said there’s no way they’re going to outcompete the likes of Temu for cheap junk and tchotchkes.
One of the Biden Admin led by Michelle’s big pushes was fresh produce to rural and poor areas. A lot of people on food stamps had very few fresh food options, I wouldn’t doubt DG got some financial incentives to help with this. They were trying to push fresh produce into gas station type convenience stores. It was ridiculous.
Posted on 8/30/24 at 7:44 am to baobabtiger
One thing killing them in my area is they shutdown the self checkout because of people stuffing their bags and not paying for everything. Now they have 7-8 people in line waiting with only one cashier checking them out. I never stop there anymore for that very reason.
Posted on 8/30/24 at 7:55 am to baobabtiger
My opinion is it is going lower. There will be a much better entry point if you are insisting on entering this name. My opinion and a dollar won’t even get you a donut, though.
Posted on 8/30/24 at 8:17 am to JLivermore
quote:
Cheap store builds on cheap rural land...I think they will eventually start growing again.
This isn't as true as it used to be 5-10 years ago. The average DG costs $1.75 - $2.00 million to build now (all in cost). The annual rent on their stores used to be around $80,000 - $100,000 for their prototypical 9k SF store. As others have mentioned, they are building bigger stores now and most stores are around 11k SF. Rents per square foot have increased fairly significantly too, so now most DG rents are closer to $150,000 with some even inching toward $200,000 per year. They've definitely diversified away from just metal buildings in rural areas, with DG Markets, their "high end" Popshelfs, and the urban DGX stores, in addition to doing a lot of "upgraded construction" and even wood built stores vs. metal (though this seems to have slowed down).
Posted on 8/30/24 at 6:00 pm to yellowhammer2098
Doesn’t DG push the triple net leases? Maybe it was Family Dollar… but that model completely outsmarted landowners during the post covid boom.
Posted on 8/30/24 at 8:07 pm to bigjoe1
quote:
DG just has way to damn many stores many within blocks of one another.
Belzoni has one regular big one, and they just build a DG market a block away on the same highway. It’s a town of 1800 people and has a decent local grocery that’s been there forever
They definitely have too many locations
Posted on 8/30/24 at 10:52 pm to Allthatfades
I was in a DG last week and a chick was just walking in and out of the front of the store taking various stuff to her car.
Another “lady” had her phone on speaker and was talking about how she was gonna beat the shite out of some other bitch.
I own a small amount. That wasn’t the most comforting visit
Another “lady” had her phone on speaker and was talking about how she was gonna beat the shite out of some other bitch.
I own a small amount. That wasn’t the most comforting visit
Posted on 9/3/24 at 11:21 am to FoodExit
quote:
One thing killing them in my area is they shutdown the self checkout because of people stuffing their bags and not paying for everything. Now they have 7-8 people in line waiting with only one cashier checking them out. I never stop there anymore for that very reason.
Same here, forgot to get some bleach for the pool on my way home from the grocery store this weekend. Figured I swing into the DG instead of backtracking. Was in line for no less than 10 minutes waiting for the one open checkout. Standing next to the self pay and the other closed checkout the whole time. Ruins everything that was good about it.
If there was every a company that needed to be pushing for rfid checkout it is them one. If they could control their shrink without more employees they would fix many of these problems.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 12:59 pm to Allthatfades
quote:
I can’t imagine how much they lose to theft. Anyone I’ve ever been in only has one cashier and she’s usually not at the front. Seems like you could walk out with half the store if you wanted
The amount of product sitting on rolling carts waiting to be stocked for weeks on end while the shelves stay empty is amazing. The manpower it will take to fix and stock those stores is extreme
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