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re: Do you consider Social Security benefits in your retirement calculus?
Posted on 3/9/25 at 8:40 pm to BottomlandBrew
Posted on 3/9/25 at 8:40 pm to BottomlandBrew
quote:
No. I'm at least 25 years out. It won't be there.
So you believe the United Sates Government will not exist?
0
Posted on 3/9/25 at 8:43 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
But banking your retirement on anything that's completely outside of your control strikes me as unwise.
The markets are out of your control.
quote:
there's no reason to incorporate unnecessary risk into a long term plan.
Incorporating SS is taking an unnecessary risk? Do you also believe the United States Government will not exist?
Posted on 3/9/25 at 8:48 pm to McLemore
quote:
The amount I have paid into it the last nearly 40 years is obscene if I’m getting nothing. Private citizens go to prison for life for Ponzi schemes.
Please explain in detail how Social security is a Ponzi scheme. Elon Musk couldn't do it so maybe you can.
Posted on 3/9/25 at 8:54 pm to La Place Mike
quote:
The markets are out of your control.
quote:
Incorporating SS is taking an unnecessary risk? Do you also believe the United States Government will not exist?
A few quick questions:
1. Considering I’m invested in broad index funds, what exactly would need to happen for my investments to go to zero?
2. What would need to happen for my SS benefits to go to zero?
3. Which of the previous two answers do you deem more likely, and by what multiple?
Posted on 3/9/25 at 8:57 pm to La Place Mike
quote:
Please explain in detail how Social security is a Ponzi scheme. Elon Musk couldn't do it so maybe you can.
It’s not a Ponzi Scheme in that there’s no fraudulent beneficiary. However, it’s structured similarly to a Ponzi Scheme in that beneficiaries aren’t paid primarily based on the return on their own investment; they are paid primarily with money taken in from new investors. If a mutual fund stops getting new investors, the previous investors are no worse for the wear. If SS stops getting new “investors” it will very quickly collapse in on itself, just like a Ponzi Scheme would.
This post was edited on 3/9/25 at 8:59 pm
Posted on 3/9/25 at 9:16 pm to SulphursFinest
quote:
What about Trump makes you want to work longer? Feels like a weird reason.
Just because conditions in this country should be pretty good, the economy should be pretty healthy. My company should be poised to have some good years.
I don't mind working a while longer under these conditions and saving and investing a few more years. I can always drop down to part time the last couple years or so if I get tired of it.
Posted on 3/9/25 at 9:58 pm to Street Hawk
No. Boomers will raid it. I don't factor it in at all.
Posted on 3/9/25 at 10:02 pm to La Place Mike
quote:
Please explain in detail how Social security is a Ponzi scheme.
Hmmmm....it takes 12.4% of my check to pay out benefits not to me but to please old enough to take it. They paid into it all their lives as well but they only paid about half the rate I have the last 20 years.
Posted on 3/9/25 at 10:43 pm to Billy Blanks
quote:
Hmmmm....it takes 12.4% of my check to pay out benefits not to me but to please old enough to take it. They paid into it all their lives as well but they only paid about half the rate I have the last 20 years.
Not a Ponzi Scheme and it take 6.2% from your check.
This post was edited on 3/9/25 at 11:01 pm
Posted on 3/9/25 at 10:44 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
It’s not a Ponzi Scheme in that there’s no fraudulent beneficiary. However, it’s structured similarly to a Ponzi Scheme in that beneficiaries aren’t paid primarily based on the return on their own investment;
Social Security is not an investment and it is structured like an annuity based on mortality rates from 1983.
This post was edited on 3/9/25 at 11:00 pm
Posted on 3/9/25 at 10:56 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Considering I’m invested in broad index funds, what exactly would need to happen for my investments to go to zero?
Probably the same thing that would happen if there wasn't a United States of America.
quote:
What would need to happen for my SS benefits to go to zero?
Due the the Government's power to tax among other measures Social Security will still be there in some form.
quote:
Which of the previous two answers do you deem more likely, and by what multiple?
I deem Social Security will still be there but your investments although may not be zero it may be depleted enough for you run out of money before you die. The market does not owe you a retirement. You can not control them.
This post was edited on 3/9/25 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 3/10/25 at 5:12 am to Street Hawk
quote:No. Simply because you should calculate conservatively as you grow your savings.
Wife and I have about 15-20 years to go for retirement. Should social security factor into our retirement plans
But unlike most here, I'm going to tell you Social Security will be there (unfortunately) for you when you retire. It's a virtual guarantee. It will be there because in contrast to every other budgetary item, SS is a debt vehicle. It is nothing but a financing instrument disguised as a retirement program, and has been since its inception. DC cannot afford to lose it as a debt managing aid.
So DC will increase your SS payroll tax by whatever amount deemed necessary to keep SS in the black. Amazingly many (probably most) Americans will thank DC for the screwjob involved in "saving SS".
Posted on 3/10/25 at 5:27 am to GasMan
quote:
since Trump won the election I think I’m gonna work for at least his term.
I voted for Trump, but I don’t understand why you would base your retirement date based on an election result.
???
I read your answer in the thread.
Ok.
This post was edited on 3/10/25 at 5:34 am
Posted on 3/10/25 at 5:50 am to Street Hawk
quote:
Do you consider Social Security benefits in your retirement calculus?
Nope, if theres something there, it will be lagniappe.
I'm over 20yrs from qualifying, so who knows what it will look like at that point. I think it will be there in some form, but I trust myself a lot more than the govt to take care of me.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 5:59 am to GasMan
quote:You're 61?
I’m not going to rely on it being there for me. And that pisses me off because I been paying into that shite since 9th grade.
SS will be there for you, unfettered. Not because of DC altruism, but because the 14th Amendment demands it.
SS is unique in that the money you contributed to SS over the years was not spent directly, but was instead immediately converted into a US public debt vehicle. The debt vehicle (an IOU from DC to you) was then used to finance government programs. Because of that structure, your contributions to the SSTF constitute a public debt of the United States, authorized by law.
14th Amendment
"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions ... shall not be questioned."
Posted on 3/10/25 at 7:06 am to Street Hawk
If the US gets to a point it can’t pay its debt obligations to social security then your retirement savings outside social security will also be virtually worthless.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 7:40 am to La Place Mike
quote:
obscene if I’m getting nothing. Private citizens go to prison for life for Ponzi schemes.
quote:
Please explain in detail how Social security is a Ponzi scheme. Elon Musk couldn't do it so maybe you can.
With those reading comprehension skills and rapier analytical ability, you should take it to the OT.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 7:43 am to Street Hawk
I’d hate to be the party in control when the inevitable decision to cut it occurs.
Posted on 3/10/25 at 7:46 am to La Place Mike
quote:
Please explain in detail how Social security is a Ponzi scheme. Elon Musk couldn't do it so maybe you can.
Using money taken from current “investors” (currently taxed individuals) to pay off “initial investors” (current retirees). What makes it a Ponzi scheme even further is the money taken (taxed) is not all being used for its stated purpose and the fund is not getting the attention it requires. Lawful obligations to fund it are shortfalling. If a private individual were doing it they would go to prison but because it’s the government it’s all good. I think one has to do more mental gymnastics to argue it’s NOT a Ponzi scheme than it is one…
This post was edited on 3/10/25 at 7:49 am
Posted on 3/10/25 at 7:59 am to Street Hawk
No. If you were born after 1973 you won't see a Dime of Social Security and at best it will be greatly reduced and hardly cover anything. Boomers are going to bankrupt Social Security and Medicare. Anyone 'planning' on receiving SS is a fool Max those retirement accounts that's what they are there for.
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