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re: Diving deeper on Standard Lithium?

Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:31 am to
Posted by CharleyLake
Member since Oct 2006
1466 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:31 am to
I know you're right.
Good opportunity for another one today.
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3702 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:40 am to
quote:

What would be a realistic number as far as how high it would go?


Long haul, like after East Texas is up and running which is many years down the road, $50-100.

That's assuming Equinor or Koch doesn't buy them outright, which I think is the more likely scenario.
Posted by Dock Holiday
Member since Sep 2015
1825 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:41 am to
quote:

I plan to hold on to this for the long haul. What would be a realistic number as far as how high it would go?


My suggestion is to not let it get personal. Understand there WILL BE spikes and pull backs, this thing is a very long way from production and less than 50/50 it will ever get to production. Even IF production starts the market may be so saturated that the stock really does not move much.

Had things fallen into place on the original estimated timeline we'd all be on our 3rd wine mixer by now, I'd settle for a keg of Natty light at this point.

Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
30957 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:33 am to
quote:

That's assuming Equinor or Koch doesn't buy them outright, which I think is the more likely scenario.

I'll take twice Koch's purchase price and not look back.

I like the pie in the sky numbers too, but I'll take a sure thing in the shorter term and not be unhappy.

I think people are still not fully understanding that this is the greenest way to get lithium. If it really is about being "green", the lithium from the Smackover is the way to go. Traditional methods and many being advertised as DLE are anything but green.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
30957 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:40 am to
I have big hopes for Trump to get back in as he is very friendly to domestic production. Lithium isn't just for EV's. Alot will be needed for space projects and the biggest will be energy storage. I'll be installing Tesla powerwalls at my house and camp as soon as I feel I can't get reliable installation and servicing here.

Trump will tariff the shite out of foreign lithium and I have a strong feeling that SLI's lithium will be very price competitive once running at full scale.
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
30957 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:46 am to
quote:

, I'd settle for a keg of Natty light at this point.

We'll be able to at least spring for Miller Lite and Franzia.

I'm still $1 from break even though. Should've loaded up more when we were down around a dollar, but Biden and Medicare owe me about $250k from the Change Healthcare fiasco, IRS owes me about $80k and I'm was a dumbshit by not sticking to my guns and waiting until we were under $1.50 and bought a big chunk at $2.13.
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3702 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 11:59 am to
My cost basis is $1.66 now, did a fair amount of buying sub $1.20.

Flashed green for a brief second today
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
3499 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:08 pm to
12$ would be nice! Would be nice to draw 15-16% on share lending for a few years at that level
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13946 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:09 pm to
What about the dynamic where SLI's DLE tech might not be the most competitive anymore? Seems like this is a lot different than 3-4 years ago when they were clearly the tech leader in the space. Now Albemarle, Exxon, and Schlumberger are getting into the DLE game, and clearly they know how to get to production better than SLI and even Equinor/Koch. That makes me think if a buyout happens, it'll be for SLI's acreage holdings more so than SLI's tech.
Posted by Boss13
Mobile
Member since Oct 2016
1845 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

What about the dynamic where SLI's DLE tech might not be the most competitive anymore? Seems like this is a lot different than 3-4 years ago when they were clearly the tech leader in the space. Now Albemarle, Exxon, and Schlumberger are getting into the DLE game, and clearly they know how to get to production better than SLI and even Equinor/Koch. That makes me think if a buyout happens, it'll be for SLI's acreage holdings more so than SLI's tech.


Do we have any of their numbers to compare? I would be inclined to agree with you but Koch and Equinor have dumped a lot of money into this. Koch thought this was a good buy at $7 a share. I know they have FU money but they didn't get it wasting time and money on half-assed startups in crowded fields.

They put eyes on the product and they loved what they saw.
Posted by SuperSaint
Sorting Out OT BS Since '2007'
Member since Sep 2007
148473 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:19 pm to
Posted by ev247
Member since Nov 2022
479 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:26 pm to
The Telescope Innovations relationship comes to mind when thinking about the tech. Don't know if it is ready enough to be worked into the ongoing SWA FEED but sounds like it could lower opex substantially. Also not sure how much it'll cost SLI to license. But if SLI has exclusive Smackover rights to the Telescope tech like they have for the Koch tech, maybe that adds to their value? Either way, I really hope SLI isn't acquired, at least until ETx is at FID.

(1/23/24) Telescope Innovations Files Game-Changing Provisional Patent to Purify Battery Materials

Doubly unsure what this IP might be worth

(8/28/24) Telescope Innovations and Standard Lithium Demonstrate Low-Temperature, High-Purity Production of Lithium Sulfide for Solid-State Batteries

PS I was discouraged when the opex-lowering Telescope tech PR dropped (first link) since it only applied to lithium carbonate conversion while SWA was going to be lithium hydroxide. But they've since pivoted SWA to produce lithium carbonate, so that gives me hope that the Telescope tech is in play for SWA.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 12:29 pm
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
30957 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

What about the dynamic where SLI's DLE tech might not be the most competitive anymore? Seems like this is a lot different than 3-4 years ago when they were clearly the tech leader in the space. Now Albemarle, Exxon, and Schlumberger are getting into the DLE game, and clearly they know how to get to production better than SLI and even Equinor/Koch. That makes me think if a buyout happens, it'll be for SLI's acreage holdings more so than SLI's tech.

Their the only ones that have successfully extracted from the Smackover Brine and are apparently doing well and maybe better than expected from the commercial column they are currently running. I'm told they are pleased with the column and continue to refine and optimize it. I cannot attest to anything first hand except they are running it and are starting to add more employees. By all accounts construction will begin as soon as possible. The current hold ups are the royalties and Lanxess is the hold up on that project. They apparently are trying to gig them for more than previously agreed after they chickenshitted out. I could see Equinor or Koch buying them out. Wouldn't be shocked to see them buy El Dorado Chemical (now owned by LSB industries) to lock down supply of needed reagents.
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46285 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 1:27 pm to
Posted by SmackoverHawg
Member since Oct 2011
30957 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 2:00 pm to
Time for the power hour. Ready to see this over $2 again.
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
3499 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 2:13 pm to
Fellow bag holders you might want to call your broker and get set up for share lending fully paid program, (as Schwab calls it) I'll be calling them as soon as we near 2$ as that's roughly where mine were returned last year.
Posted by Fe_Mike
Member since Jul 2015
3702 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 2:18 pm to
Would love to crack $1.70 and finish HOD. Puts $2 in play tomorrow.
Posted by Drunken Crawfish
Member since Apr 2017
3883 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

Fellow bag holders you might want to call your broker and get set up for share lending fully paid program


Can you explain the lending process to us plebs.
Posted by Dock Holiday
Member since Sep 2015
1825 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

Can you explain the lending process to us plebs.


You basically become a "bank" for SLI shares to be "borrowed".

Short sellers don't actually own the stock, but borrow it from a broker or lender and pay the broker and a % interest on the shares. I forgot what my SLI topped out at, but started around 4% and over time rise of 10% at one point. You will get money directly deposited to my account every month based on the % interest and balance of shares lent out, it can fluctuate greatly. You have to sign paperwork to get into the program, call your account broker or send them an email.

Yes, you can sell your shares at any time, even if lent out. kinda weird...

Edit to add:
Short selling ads a layer of unpredictability to the stock price, it will move one way or another for no financial reason, If the wrong (or right) person holds a ton of puts or calls they have their own ways to manipulate the stock price in their favor, including, but not limited to paid for hit pieces for public consumption.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 3:39 pm
Posted by Wraytex
San Antonio - Gonzales
Member since Jun 2020
3499 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 3:23 pm to
When you set your account up for share lending, your broker can/will borrow your shares to cover what the shorts are shorting. While the shares are lent out, they pay you for them being used. My range with Schwab last year was 15-16.5% and payouts were monthly, which i usually rolled back in for more at that time.
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