re: Could be a rough day 3/15/23

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Beware the Ides Of March.

As was the case many, many years ago, it'll be a bloodbath--figuratively, of course

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Good one

Most regionals are down 3-6%. Truist is up 2% on an overnight Citi upgrade to "Buy". First Republic is down 20%.

Overall, the sector is taking a black eye.

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Why is oil and oil stocks down so much today?

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I would think with the economy showing signs of at best slowing down demand will drop for oil.

I'm no financial person but seems logical.

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Something fishy is going on.

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All of my energy stocks are taking beating today.

I come here to say this each time there is market volatility.

I'm not smart enough to piece it all together from a macro economic standpoint, but we see these things on the front end more often than not being in global freight.

I'm quoting Asia to US ocean containers at $1000 to the US West Coast and $2700 into the USEC. $3600 into inland locations.

That's off a high of $16,000+ to all those locations June 2021-June 2022. That number has dropped every night since July W1. It's now almost to the floor we saw in 2019. We will hit that.

Every customer we have talked to is ordering fewer PO's and thus fewer containers than they have in any of the recent years. Most retail or consumer importers have Inventory to Sales numbers that have skyrocketed and can't even draw down the goods they do have at landed costs way higher than what they would pay now. It's why your TJ Maxx's and Ross/ and Burlington's are bursting at the seams right now.

For demand to go up we need replenishment cycle velocities to increase. Nobody is talking about that happening anytime soon. Everyone is walking on egg shells. More and more of our customer are asking for extended terms.

There's still plenty of business to grab, especially B-to-B and Industrial, and we will go get it, but it does feel fishy out here.

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Seems like this is premeditated and the beginning of a designed stock market recession

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We’ve been in a recession, this is the beginning of something far more systemic that might not be fully recoverable.

The government will have to bail out more and more banks by buying their depreciated bonds to remove their undeclared losses and ensure they remain solvent, which will lead to additional printing of money and thus accelerated inflation.

Best case it stabilizes with a further depreciated dollar, worst case it triggers the end of the petro dollar and either a war or a depression.

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LSUShock

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I always enjoy reading your industry analysis. Nothing but straight data on something so basic yet foundational to the economy.

I agree as well. That was a very informative read. No BS or hyperbole. I really enjoyed reading his post.

Trading halted on First Republic