re: BOIL has become predictable

Wish we could've seen this 2 weeks ago

I told yall hold July and Aug are the biggest swings

I jumped out this week to take profits. Was tired of moving sideways and having nothing to show for it. Could've made money doing that over the last few months but oh well, you live and learn. I plan to buy back in, just hope I didn't jump the gun.

I never exit until Aug..........and It will be between 98-104

Good news is that 6-10 days of cooler weather.......Hell in hasn't even crossed 95 degrees in Texas yet where I am at.......that bodes well for us.

93 bcf.........still above projection and next weeks will be better.

We could see sub $4 NG this week. Not in time to salvage UNG, but it's coming. Cash settled at $4.09, and futures are trading down this evening. From a technical perspective, we're past the bounce, and the reaction on Thursday to the report convinces me we've turned the corner. It appears to me we have backwardation and not contango (although I always confuse these two, so it could be the other way around, but I know what I'm trying to say)

I still have a partial strangle and long puts on July 19 UNG 20/23. I've sold 183 August - October contracts at over $4.30.

I relearned a lesson here. Also learned several new ones. I should have used strangles earlier and played both long/short on UNG all the way through this. No way should I ever have placed such a large bet on an ETF/ETN as a long term play. The real money was, and is in futures contracts so long as it is risk managed. My due diligence was lacking with respect to pipeline capacity.

On the securities side, this was as botched of a series of trades on my part as I've had in years.

100% my fault.

Ah well, it goes like it goes.

I don't mind losing a trade, or learning a lesson. It pains me to have to relearn one though. It clearly shows I'm correct as I know I'm just not that smart. Certainly not as smart as some on here.

Im bull ng from October forward.

Poll for Thursday's injection report:

LINK

BTW, Ustheforce was correct and I was wrong. I believe his price projects for cash and contracts by August 15th will prove true. The UNG trade was one trade to not follow me on.

About mid August I'm going to start looking for low priced calls on Sept - Dec contracts.

No sir. I have no interest in marijuana stocks and know very little about them. I am a trader, but my trades are increasingly more long term. I play with lower priced stocks, and enjoy it, but lower priced stocks with less beta.