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Started By
Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 7/16/14 at 10:54 am to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 7/16/14 at 10:54 am to Iowa Golfer
That makes sense to me. I really do appreciate your suggestions.
1
Posted on 7/17/14 at 7:52 am to TheBigHurt
Yesterday was strange. Futures traded up, cash settled marginally lower. this morning August gas, which is the current and critical month traded down. I haven't checked the EFT/ETN to see if they're rolling yet, but I suspect they are already in September. They would have taken a hit on this roll. I would anticipate a significant drop in UNG today. I went long DGAZ very early this morning.
Having said that, this trade has been one where you can be 100% correct, but be 100% correct 6 hours too late.
Having said that, this trade has been one where you can be 100% correct, but be 100% correct 6 hours too late.
Posted on 7/17/14 at 8:35 am to Iowa Golfer
I expect a huge drop in ung today.....may see 50 dollar kold.....
This post was edited on 7/17/14 at 8:47 am
Posted on 7/17/14 at 9:19 am to L S Usetheforce
The disconnect between August and UNG right now is maddening.
Posted on 7/17/14 at 9:33 am to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 7/17/14 at 9:45 am to Iowa Golfer
August gas below $4. July 23P UNG recovered. One day before expiration. Thanks goodness.
Posted on 7/17/14 at 9:46 am to Iowa Golfer
August gas is below $4. July $23 UNG puts have recovered. Anyone who followed me in on July 23 should be in the money and getting out. Well, the getting out is up to you, but this has gone on too long, so I'm getting out.
Posted on 7/17/14 at 10:05 am to Iowa Golfer
Damn, crazy how that worked out.
Posted on 7/17/14 at 10:07 am to Iowa Golfer
I got fricking owned on this. I exited most of my position at the end of June... at today's prices between the 23/25's I would've made a nice profit.
Posted on 7/17/14 at 10:23 am to L S Usetheforce
Great day today on the DGAZ/KOLD train!
Posted on 7/17/14 at 10:58 am to sneakytiger
I told yall it's like clock work. PATIENCE
This post was edited on 7/17/14 at 11:00 am
Posted on 7/17/14 at 11:17 am to L S Usetheforce
It couldn't have been more last minute for those of us with 7/19 expirations.
Posted on 7/17/14 at 11:34 am to L S Usetheforce
GEAUX DGAZ!!!! Thanks Force for the rec as well! Looking mighty fine! So the time to exit is Sept.? I imagine we kill next weeks injection as well w the cold front this week.
Posted on 7/17/14 at 11:59 am to TheBigHurt
Actually you won't see this week's until next week..... Its a week behind
Posted on 7/17/14 at 12:03 pm to L S Usetheforce
Next Thursday's report should reflect this week right? Thinking it should do well...
Posted on 7/17/14 at 12:24 pm to TheBigHurt
we may lose a little bit during week on warmer 6-10 day outlook but with all the bulls running won't be as significant..........
Im hoping to dump out in Mid August and buy BOIL
Im hoping to dump out in Mid August and buy BOIL
Posted on 7/17/14 at 5:35 pm to L S Usetheforce
Mid August seem like a good time to start looking for a lower cost bull play.
Although my bull play, and this time next year's bear play will not be on options on a tracking fund. It will be on contracts, and I'll buy bull and bear respectively.
The crazy thing for me is that I know levered efts are not a long term play, and yet in this instance they were the only stress free winners. The challenge on the etfs, isn't so much what they will do, or even when they'll do it, it is trying to get a fair price on them predicated on what they own.
All is well that ends well. I'll have 200 July 20 puts likely expire worthless tomorrow. 20 traded today. Total volume. Likely people buying back to close. I had 300 July 23P that I unloaded today between $1.14 and 1.27.
This was a lot of work. Work has been a lot of work lately also. I'm glad the intense portion of this has concluded. I won't be repeating that part of this trade next year.
Although my bull play, and this time next year's bear play will not be on options on a tracking fund. It will be on contracts, and I'll buy bull and bear respectively.
The crazy thing for me is that I know levered efts are not a long term play, and yet in this instance they were the only stress free winners. The challenge on the etfs, isn't so much what they will do, or even when they'll do it, it is trying to get a fair price on them predicated on what they own.
All is well that ends well. I'll have 200 July 20 puts likely expire worthless tomorrow. 20 traded today. Total volume. Likely people buying back to close. I had 300 July 23P that I unloaded today between $1.14 and 1.27.
This was a lot of work. Work has been a lot of work lately also. I'm glad the intense portion of this has concluded. I won't be repeating that part of this trade next year.
Posted on 7/18/14 at 6:02 am to Iowa Golfer
20 dollars was aggressive...... I was quite confident in 23 ung July puts....
Posted on 7/18/14 at 8:16 am to L S Usetheforce
Yup. I rolled on this one.
Posted on 7/18/14 at 8:59 am to Iowa Golfer
Now you and I need to have drinks moving forward so you can teach me more on trading puts on contracts.
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