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Started By
Message
re: Bear market rally
Posted on 7/23/22 at 4:43 am to go ta hell ole miss
Posted on 7/23/22 at 4:43 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Apple is going to disappoint
Might be a buying opportunity
2
Posted on 7/23/22 at 6:36 am to makersmark1
quote:
Might be a buying opportunity
Buffett concurs. AAPL is like 47% of his holdings.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 7:36 am to Guntoter1
This week was a ploy to get y’all to put more in. It’s gonna drop more next week and you’ll never be able to retire
The stock market is a transfer of wealth from people that work to the plutocrats
The stock market is a transfer of wealth from people that work to the plutocrats
Posted on 7/23/22 at 7:54 am to makersmark1
quote:
Might be a buying opportunity
I have bought puts going into next week. We’ll see.. If it goes below recent lows I am going to load up. I believe Apple needs to bottom, stabilize and start moving back up before the entire market can do the same. I don’t think that has fully happened yet.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 9:06 am to GhostofJackson
quote:Hope you're right. I still have a pile of cash. Was waiting for a pullback to ~3600. We fell short of that a few weeks ago. DCA'd some, but not enough. If we drop to those earlier lows again, I'm not going to be so greedy.
It's going to be bloody next week.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 11:00 am to NC_Tigah
I’m sure your dollar cost averaging will provide plenty of needy Israelis missiles and plenty of underprivileged Americans the air jordans they need
Posted on 7/23/22 at 12:02 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Hope you're right. I still have a pile of cash. Was waiting for a pullback to ~3600. We fell short of that a few weeks ago. DCA'd some, but not enough. If we drop to those earlier lows again, I'm not going to be so greedy.
Fed meeting is Tuesday/Wednesday. I'd guess we see a drop leading into and probably post announcment. We had the pullback to 3600 moment already, I don't think we see it again. CPI data didn't even really do any damage this month, so I'm not sure if a slightly over expectations return in August will drop us. Heck, at or slightly below may send shite way north.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 12:17 pm to Decisions
quote:
Just telling people to buy the dip and not worry about it is at best an intellectually lazy take. I’d personally call it dishonest.
The alternative is timing the market, and that’s absolutely a dishonest take.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 12:23 pm to Guntoter1
quote:
Will the market continue to rally next week or is reality about to come back with a vengeance ?
Yes, I am a trader. Not an investor.
Long/short or long only trader? And what indicators or signals have you been using so far?
Posted on 7/23/22 at 12:45 pm to Guntoter1
It's a stock picker's market
Posted on 7/23/22 at 3:09 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
have bought puts going into next week
So if price goes down you make some money?
Are they long duration puts?
I sell puts frequently to lower my entry basis IF I get assigned shares. If not assigned, I keep the premium and start another put sell.
I could see buying them to hedge against massive loss, but I doubt Apple goes to zero before expiration.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 3:56 pm to makersmark1
Not saying it's gonna happen, but the setup would be eerily similar if we dumped from here.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 4:20 pm to makersmark1
quote:
So if price goes down you make some money?
Yes.
quote:
Are they long duration puts? .
Not long duration. Very short term. July 29 expiration.
quote:
I could see buying them to hedge against massive loss, but I doubt Apple goes to zero before expiration.
I don’t have any other position in Apple, so this is not a hedge. I can categorically guarantee Apple will not go to zero before the expiration.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 4:27 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
Long/short or long only trader? And what indicators or signals have you been using so far?
Did my first short ever last week.
It went well.
Indicators? Lol , my gut.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 5:03 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
I don’t have any other position in Apple, so this is not a hedge
In general, 75% or so of option contracts expire worthless.
I sell calls for income and puts to enter a position, but I’ve not bought options yet.
I guess IF I could time things better, I could make a lot of money buying calls if bullish or puts if bearish, but I don’t follow every tick during the week so I stick to the blasé selling of options against positions I own with calls and cash secured puts to enter a position at a lower basis or collect premium.
Posted on 7/23/22 at 6:24 pm to el Gaucho
quote:
I’m sure your dollar cost averaging will provide plenty of needy Israelis missiles and plenty of underprivileged Americans the air jordans they need
Posted on 7/23/22 at 6:32 pm to GhostofJackson
quote:Nearly, but not quite.
We had the pullback to 3600 moment already
At the time, 3600 seemed such a reasonably mean retraction number, that I kept powder dry at 3650.
This post was edited on 7/24/22 at 1:30 am
Posted on 7/23/22 at 7:58 pm to thelawnwranglers
quote:
Going to be choppy next week
Agree, but I think Monday will be green at the close.
I think the rally will continue despite the earnings.
I think I made the right decision too hold through the weekend.
Oh, the crash is coming but the market movers haven’t sucked in enough FOMO people yet.
I agree with a quote I heard on George Nobles show. “When the time comes to sell, you won’t want to.”
Posted on 7/23/22 at 8:18 pm to Guntoter1
quote:
Oh, the crash is coming
Yeah heard this one before
Posted on 7/24/22 at 9:45 am to makersmark1
quote:
In general, 75% or so of option contracts expire worthless.
I get it, you think buy $148 puts on Apple was stupid. You have made that abundantly clear. But, you don’t really believe that 75-80% myth, I hope.
The reason the 75- 80% myth persists is because only 10-20% of option contracts are exercised. From there have to make a huge leap that 80% expire worthless and ignore some very significant data. You have to ignore the fact that 60%-65% of option contracts that are closed out prior to expiration. In my case I plan to close out of my position after Apple reports on the 28th. I recognize it may expire worthless if they beat on earnings, but there is no way you can really say or believe 75% of options contracts expedite worthless.
I’ve tried not to be condescending here, but you continue to dump on me and I am not sure you have a great grasp on facts. Apple does not have to go to zero before the puts expire in order for me to make money, as you stated earlier. My strike price is $148, not $0. And your belief in a myth that 75% of options expire worthless is just wrong. I don’t mind people knocking my positions, it gives me pause to reconsider, but it does not sound like you are well informed and are still slamming them.
ETA:
My July 29 puts were up 12% today. I have not closed the position yet because I think there is further room to go.If I close it out I will make a pretty healthy gain and it may expire worthless because the stock may never get to $148 strike price. That does not mean money was not made on the option, though.
This post was edited on 7/25/22 at 9:01 pm
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