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Message
re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Posted on 2/18/22 at 12:35 pm to oklahogjr
Posted on 2/18/22 at 12:35 pm to oklahogjr
Some of the anecdotal stuff is alarming as well ..
People lurking on LN message boards are saying that by and large not many have even heard or Lupkynis, and the ones who have have branded it as "the really expensive treatment"
People lurking on LN message boards are saying that by and large not many have even heard or Lupkynis, and the ones who have have branded it as "the really expensive treatment"
2
Posted on 2/18/22 at 12:54 pm to jmcwhrter
quote:
lurking on LN message boards are saying that by and large not many have even heard or Lupkynis, and the ones who have have branded it as "the really expensive treatment"
Which is either accurate and a big outreach failure or inaccurate and being used to sow FUD
Posted on 2/18/22 at 1:55 pm to molsusports
Have a good friend who moved his entire retirement into this. Was considering nibbling on it because he seems really confident but you guys are scaring me off.
This post was edited on 2/18/22 at 5:54 pm
Posted on 2/18/22 at 2:21 pm to Saint5446
quote:
Have a good friend who moved his entire retirement into this.
I don't care how much of a "sure thing" you think a stock is...this is a horrifying decision.
Posted on 2/18/22 at 2:28 pm to jmcwhrter
quote:
not many have even heard or Lupkynis
This could be good because once everyone does hear about it...ZOOOM! haha
Posted on 2/18/22 at 2:38 pm to ShootingsBricks4Life
quote:
not many have even heard or Lupkynis
This does not surprise me because pharma promotional plans are usually focused on HCP first for a certain amount of time after approval before they begin their direct to patient promotions. Reason being they don't want physicians being asked about a treatment by patients and not knowing anything about it.
Posted on 2/18/22 at 4:45 pm to Saint5446
quote:
Have a good friend who moved his entire retirement into this. Was considering nibbling on it but you guys are scaring me off. I think the technicals also set up for a continued decline until there is more news.
I'd be a fricking mess if my retirement was riding on this roller coaster. With that said it spends so much time treading water that you can makeup some ground selling options if you look at the channel and want to add a little more risk and reward
Posted on 2/18/22 at 4:56 pm to oklahogjr
quote:
I'd be a fricking mess if my retirement was riding on this roller coaster.
Based on your posts in the last couple hours, I'm thinking you're internalizing his mess already.
Guessing you won't sleep tonight.
Posted on 2/22/22 at 11:52 am to Grassy1
Anyone looking to enter this? Eyeing the $14 level.
Posted on 2/22/22 at 12:11 pm to Saint5446
wtf is going on with this thing.. surely this isn't from some bot-written Zacks article?
Posted on 2/25/22 at 7:58 am to jmcwhrter
Anyone have any insight into earnings? How we feeling about this?
Posted on 2/25/22 at 8:32 am to Saint5446
quote:
How we feeling about this?
Given that they show pre market on a Monday I feel pretty good about it. You'd think that would be a time to showcase a nice beat.
What will guidance be though? Guidance is liklier to move th needle. 160 million, 200 million?
Revenue totalled 22.5 million in quarters 1-3 last year. Q3 was 15 million alone. Q4 revenue of 20 million would mean 42.5 million for 2021, which is in line with Peter's 40-50 million guidance.
Posted on 2/25/22 at 10:55 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
which is in line with Peter's 40-50 million guidance.
because of his asinine comments a couple weeks ago, anything that isn't top end of guidance or a beat is going to drive the price lower
Posted on 2/25/22 at 6:32 pm to jmcwhrter
Could be right. He better deliver.
Pretty crazy since he’s literally never hyped numbers.
Pretty crazy since he’s literally never hyped numbers.
Posted on 2/25/22 at 6:35 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
What will guidance be though? Guidance is liklier to move th needle. 160 million, 200 million?
4x to 5x growth seems high. I'm thinking like 100 to 120 million I'd more reasonable. That's as or more aggressive than bcrx for cast even at half the high side forecast numbers.
Posted on 2/25/22 at 6:39 pm to oklahogjr
What were the original projections from the firms? The ones from early 2020…
Posted on 2/26/22 at 7:15 am to oklahogjr
quote:
I'm thinking like 100 to 120 million I'd more reasonable
And these "analysts" and rumor mills keep throwing numbers around that are twice that
So a reasonable protection means big red plummetsville
Posted on 2/26/22 at 10:50 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
What were the original projections from the firms? The ones from early 2020…
honestly year over year i don't remember. i'm just trying to envision that growth graph. 4-5x would be a really big change. i'd like to know what is different that is going to make sales go up that much if they forecast it. That would be averaging ~50m per quarter instead of maybe getting there over the year. just seems way high.
Posted on 2/26/22 at 10:50 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
And these "analysts" and rumor mills keep throwing numbers around that are twice that
So a reasonable protection means big red plummetsville
that's my best guess as to what we see monday. However AUPH never ceases to amaze me...so could go either way.
Posted on 2/28/22 at 5:17 am to oklahogjr
Pretty conservative guidance.. but I like this:
quote:
Further stabilized balance sheet through the utilization of an at the market offering (ATM), raising net proceeds of $196.7 million through December 31, 2021, at an average price of $19.91 and at an average discount of 2.63%. The Company has terminated the ATM sales agreement with no further sales to occur under the ATM.
Financial Liquidity at December 31, 2021
As of December 31, 2021, Aurinia had cash and cash equivalents and investments of $466.1 million compared to $422.7 million at December 31, 2020.
This post was edited on 2/28/22 at 5:18 am
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