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wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
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re: Any educated guesses on when interest rates go back down to 3-4% range again?
Do you not understand that would have already happened probably a year ago if long term rates were going to rise?


thegreatboudini
USA Fan
Member since Oct 2008
5599 posts

quote:

Before the end of 2023


Do tell


TDsngumbo
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Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
36191 posts
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I'd say at least four or five years from now.


Jimmy2shoes
LSU Fan
The South
Member since Mar 2014
11004 posts

not any time soon. definitely not until the potato is removed from the White House


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12
TMFBB21
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2021
174 posts

My guess is we will see a drop in interest rates at the end of Q4, beginning of Q1 2023 if we do go into a recession.


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22
wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
9275 posts
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We don’t have the growth potential to get long term treasury rates up higher than 3-4%. Mortgage rates rising is a reaction to short term policy changes and forward guidance. All of which will reverse probably by the end of the year give or take a few months. The purchase notes at 6-6.5% are the same people who were buying properties at 3%, it is not an expansion of the mortgage market to untapped less credit worthy borrowers.


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20
NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
111139 posts

quote:

Before the end of 2023
There will be a hell of a lot of pressure to bring it back down.

The cost of carry on our $30 Trillion debt is significant enough at low rates.
But at historical norms of 5-6%, "interest on the debt" will sky to $1.4-$1.5 Tn/yr. $1.4Tn is about 2X the Defense Budget, and approaches total US income tax revenue.


MusclesofBrussels
Member since Dec 2015
3973 posts

quote:

If rates get pushed back to 3%-4% in the next two years the dollar is done.




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31
wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
9275 posts
 Online 

That does not even consider private sector credit deterioration with margin and volume pressures building. The insolvency rates would explode. Non of this is politically digestible and therefore trigger a federal response. Rinse and repeat for 300 years

Forgot to mention the pensions and retirement wealth evaporating
This post was edited on 6/30 at 3:08 pm


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20
NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
111139 posts

quote:

If rates get pushed back to 3%-4% in the next two years the dollar is done.
Interesting. I'd have imagined just the opposite. What's your basis of thought?


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21
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Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
84648 posts

I doubt 3% is in the reasonable future.

However, one never wants to say never. The Fed was so slow to react and now they're in panic mode. The possibility exists they could overcorrect and have to come back down sharply.

The current environment is so volatile and unpredictable that I would be hesitant to make any long-term projections on interest rates.


leeman101
Auburn Fan
Huntsville, AL
Member since Aug 2020
891 posts

I miss the days when savers could make a decent percentage on a money market account or CD.


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30
wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
9275 posts
 Online 

You high, baw? We’re at 3% right now


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
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Man this thread is a shite show in that people are talking about different things lol


kywildcatfanone
Kentucky Fan
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
100279 posts

January 20th, 2025


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04
wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
9275 posts
 Online 

It’s because the all encompassing term of “interest rates” is very misunderstood so ask market rates get grouped together broadly.


fjlee90
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2016
6860 posts

I’ll put it to you this way. I just bought a house. I purchased the points to get down to 4% because I have absolutely no confidence that I will get the opportunity to refinance in the next 5-10 years.


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31
CorkRockingham
Member since Jun 2017
465 posts
 Online 

I agree with Wutang I just went long TLT this morning. I might be a bit early and may have to close out before the July FED meeting but the economy is in a recession now.


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10
Warfox
LSU Fan
B.R. Native (now in MA)
Member since Apr 2017
2072 posts

The EARLIEST one may POSSIBLY see 3-4% again is after this cycle shits the bed for real(it hasn’t yet), recovers, pumps, and begins to shite the bed again.

So like one poster said: at least 10 years.
This post was edited on 7/1 at 2:49 pm


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METAL
Member since Nov 2020
698 posts

I’m going with never. The world and currencies will have changed too drastically by the time we “hit that point” in the cycle.


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