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re: Any educated guesses on when interest rates go back down to 3-4% range again?Posted by wutangfinancial 
on 6/30/22 at 1:00 pm to FlyingTiger1955
on 6/30/22 at 1:00 pm to FlyingTiger1955Do you not understand that would have already happened probably a year ago if long term rates were going to rise?
Posted by thegreatboudini 
on 6/30/22 at 1:17 pm to wutangfinancial
on 6/30/22 at 1:17 pm to wutangfinancialquote:
Before the end of 2023
Do tell
Posted by TDsngumbo on 6/30/22 at 1:21 pm to GeismarGeauxer
on 6/30/22 at 1:21 pm to GeismarGeauxerI'd say at least four or five years from now.
Posted by Jimmy2shoes on 6/30/22 at 1:32 pm to GeismarGeauxer
on 6/30/22 at 1:32 pm to GeismarGeauxernot any time soon. definitely not until the potato is removed from the White House
Posted by wutangfinancial on 6/30/22 at 2:00 pm to thegreatboudini
on 6/30/22 at 2:00 pm to thegreatboudiniWe don’t have the growth potential to get long term treasury rates up higher than 3-4%. Mortgage rates rising is a reaction to short term policy changes and forward guidance. All of which will reverse probably by the end of the year give or take a few months. The purchase notes at 6-6.5% are the same people who were buying properties at 3%, it is not an expansion of the mortgage market to untapped less credit worthy borrowers.
Posted by NC_Tigah on 6/30/22 at 2:26 pm to wutangfinancial
on 6/30/22 at 2:26 pm to wutangfinancialquote:There will be a hell of a lot of pressure to bring it back down.
Before the end of 2023
The cost of carry on our $30 Trillion debt is significant enough at low rates.
But at historical norms of 5-6%, "interest on the debt" will sky to $1.4-$1.5 Tn/yr. $1.4Tn is about 2X the Defense Budget, and approaches total US income tax revenue.
Posted by MusclesofBrussels on 6/30/22 at 2:32 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
If rates get pushed back to 3%-4% in the next two years the dollar is done.
Posted by wutangfinancial on 6/30/22 at 3:06 pm to NC_Tigah
on 6/30/22 at 3:06 pm to NC_TigahThat does not even consider private sector credit deterioration with margin and volume pressures building. The insolvency rates would explode. Non of this is politically digestible and therefore trigger a federal response. Rinse and repeat for 300 years
Forgot to mention the pensions and retirement wealth evaporating
Forgot to mention the pensions and retirement wealth evaporating
This post was edited on 6/30 at 3:08 pm
Posted by NC_Tigah on 6/30/22 at 4:32 pm to I Love Bama
on 6/30/22 at 4:32 pm to I Love Bamaquote:Interesting. I'd have imagined just the opposite. What's your basis of thought?
If rates get pushed back to 3%-4% in the next two years the dollar is done.
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Posted by Ace Midnight on 7/1/22 at 7:02 am to GeismarGeauxer
I doubt 3% is in the reasonable future.
However, one never wants to say never. The Fed was so slow to react and now they're in panic mode. The possibility exists they could overcorrect and have to come back down sharply.
The current environment is so volatile and unpredictable that I would be hesitant to make any long-term projections on interest rates.
However, one never wants to say never. The Fed was so slow to react and now they're in panic mode. The possibility exists they could overcorrect and have to come back down sharply.
The current environment is so volatile and unpredictable that I would be hesitant to make any long-term projections on interest rates.
Posted by leeman101 
on 7/1/22 at 7:19 am to GeismarGeauxer
on 7/1/22 at 7:19 am to GeismarGeauxerI miss the days when savers could make a decent percentage on a money market account or CD.
Posted by castorinho 
on 7/1/22 at 11:11 am to wutangfinancial
on 7/1/22 at 11:11 am to wutangfinancialMan this thread is a shite show in that people are talking about different things lol
Posted by wutangfinancial on 7/1/22 at 11:28 am to castorinho
on 7/1/22 at 11:28 am to castorinhoIt’s because the all encompassing term of “interest rates” is very misunderstood so ask market rates get grouped together broadly.
Posted by fjlee90 on 7/1/22 at 1:10 pm to GeismarGeauxer
on 7/1/22 at 1:10 pm to GeismarGeauxerI’ll put it to you this way. I just bought a house. I purchased the points to get down to 4% because I have absolutely no confidence that I will get the opportunity to refinance in the next 5-10 years.
Posted by CorkRockingham on 7/1/22 at 1:43 pm to wutangfinancial
on 7/1/22 at 1:43 pm to wutangfinancialI agree with Wutang I just went long TLT this morning. I might be a bit early and may have to close out before the July FED meeting but the economy is in a recession now.
Posted by Warfox on 7/1/22 at 2:48 pm to GeismarGeauxer
on 7/1/22 at 2:48 pm to GeismarGeauxerThe EARLIEST one may POSSIBLY see 3-4% again is after this cycle shits the bed for real(it hasn’t yet), recovers, pumps, and begins to shite the bed again.
So like one poster said: at least 10 years.
So like one poster said: at least 10 years.
This post was edited on 7/1 at 2:49 pm
Posted by METAL on 7/1/22 at 2:51 pm to GeismarGeauxer
I’m going with never. The world and currencies will have changed too drastically by the time we “hit that point” in the cycle.
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