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re: Any educated guesses on when interest rates go back down to 3-4% range again?
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:00 pm to FlyingTiger1955
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:00 pm to FlyingTiger1955
Do you not understand that would have already happened probably a year ago if long term rates were going to rise?
1
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:17 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Before the end of 2023
Do tell
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:21 pm to GeismarGeauxer
I'd say at least four or five years from now.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:32 pm to GeismarGeauxer
not any time soon. definitely not until the potato is removed from the White House
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:43 pm to TDsngumbo
My guess is we will see a drop in interest rates at the end of Q4, beginning of Q1 2023 if we do go into a recession.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:00 pm to thegreatboudini
We don’t have the growth potential to get long term treasury rates up higher than 3-4%. Mortgage rates rising is a reaction to short term policy changes and forward guidance. All of which will reverse probably by the end of the year give or take a few months. The purchase notes at 6-6.5% are the same people who were buying properties at 3%, it is not an expansion of the mortgage market to untapped less credit worthy borrowers.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:26 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:There will be a hell of a lot of pressure to bring it back down.
Before the end of 2023
The cost of carry on our $30 Trillion debt is significant enough at low rates.
But at historical norms of 5-6%, "interest on the debt" will sky to $1.4-$1.5 Tn/yr. $1.4Tn is about 2X the Defense Budget, and approaches total US income tax revenue.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:32 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
If rates get pushed back to 3%-4% in the next two years the dollar is done.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 3:06 pm to NC_Tigah
That does not even consider private sector credit deterioration with margin and volume pressures building. The insolvency rates would explode. Non of this is politically digestible and therefore trigger a federal response. Rinse and repeat for 300 years
Forgot to mention the pensions and retirement wealth evaporating
Forgot to mention the pensions and retirement wealth evaporating
This post was edited on 6/30/22 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 4:32 pm to I Love Bama
quote:Interesting. I'd have imagined just the opposite. What's your basis of thought?
If rates get pushed back to 3%-4% in the next two years the dollar is done.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 7:02 am to GeismarGeauxer
I doubt 3% is in the reasonable future.
However, one never wants to say never. The Fed was so slow to react and now they're in panic mode. The possibility exists they could overcorrect and have to come back down sharply.
The current environment is so volatile and unpredictable that I would be hesitant to make any long-term projections on interest rates.
However, one never wants to say never. The Fed was so slow to react and now they're in panic mode. The possibility exists they could overcorrect and have to come back down sharply.
The current environment is so volatile and unpredictable that I would be hesitant to make any long-term projections on interest rates.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 7:19 am to GeismarGeauxer
I miss the days when savers could make a decent percentage on a money market account or CD.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:13 am to Ace Midnight
You high, baw? We’re at 3% right now
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:11 am to wutangfinancial
Man this thread is a shite show in that people are talking about different things lol
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:14 am to GeismarGeauxer
January 20th, 2025
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:28 am to castorinho
It’s because the all encompassing term of “interest rates” is very misunderstood so ask market rates get grouped together broadly.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 1:10 pm to GeismarGeauxer
I’ll put it to you this way. I just bought a house. I purchased the points to get down to 4% because I have absolutely no confidence that I will get the opportunity to refinance in the next 5-10 years.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 1:43 pm to wutangfinancial
I agree with Wutang I just went long TLT this morning. I might be a bit early and may have to close out before the July FED meeting but the economy is in a recession now.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 2:48 pm to GeismarGeauxer
The EARLIEST one may POSSIBLY see 3-4% again is after this cycle shits the bed for real(it hasn’t yet), recovers, pumps, and begins to shite the bed again.
So like one poster said: at least 10 years.
So like one poster said: at least 10 years.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 7/1/22 at 2:51 pm to GeismarGeauxer
I’m going with never. The world and currencies will have changed too drastically by the time we “hit that point” in the cycle.
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