re: A Can’t miss SPAC??! Agility Robotics CCXI/AGLT

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Won’t this likely drop like a rock once the merger is complete? Like buying now at $17 and holding is not a good idea, right? Buying now and selling on hype pre merger at like $25 is good though? Is that how these usually work?

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It’s impossible to say. Some have ran north of $50.
I think BRUN got near $10 (WLAC), but popped to $30 weeks after.

This theme is HOT, and it’s why I’m still holding.

You are looking at several milestones after the merger announcement: S-4 filing, the SEC declaring it effective, declaring the shareholder voting date, reported redemptions, voting result, and closure of the deal are key milestones. Each SPAC reacts differently.

Look at BCAR, their S-4 was declared effective on 6/24, but for some reason they filed an amendment to late Friday afternoon (6/26) and it has traded down after it was declared effective. It isn't down a lot, but you would think it would've traded higher on 6/24 or the next day.

If you look at WLAC which brought BRUN to market, it ran over 70% into the shareholder vote (starting from $10.64 in early April to the April 30 vote) and kept on running. Just prior to the vote, a 0% redemption rate was declared which is very favorable. They didn't announce the results of the vote for 3 or 4 business days which seemed like a long time. I think it was to certify the vote tally and then a few more days before the deal closed. In this case WLAC / BRUN ran 258% from the 2nd week of April to end of the 2nd quarter today. It ran into the deal closing and kept on going. It has more than doubled from the last trading day when the deal was announced as closed on May 8 at $18.83 and today it closed at $38.81. It has reached intraday highs in the $40s several times.

Then you have another version of Churchill with CCIV and it ran to $65 or so and this was before the merger deal with LCID was announced. I think CCXI is special since the sector is hot, Agility has major customers, and has major backing. Softbank Group and Amazon are two backers.

Take Amazon, they make their own robots and yet they are also using Agility Robots. Agility also reported that their robots have been used for over 65,000 hours of operation total. It would be great if this were for just last month, but it is still impressive.

You have people talking about a privately held competitor Figure AI that base on its most recent funding round has a value of $35Billion, but some of the demos have been questionable. There is a YouTube video noting that Figure AI's bots are being manipulated by a teleoperator. The Figure AI CEO was invited to participate in a Bloomberg sponsored demonstration where other competitors were and he decided not to bring the bot. WTF? The host asked him, where is your robot and he said it would be a waste of time, but then why did he bring his sorry butt to the exhibition?

You also have to consider Tesla.

When you consider Agility has multiple robots in warehouses working along with multi-year contracts, it seems that they have a lot of momentum.

Excellent insights!

Excellent info, thank you for this

Thanks!

The Roundhill news that they added CCXI to their HUMN ETF is great news. While it is a small ETF, it does bring credibility to the name and is a vote of confidence that they don't want to wait until the CCXI/AGLT deal closes.

This reminded me that prior to the WLAC/BRUN deal closing there were two filings in the April/ early May timeframe by two separate investors that each took over a 5% stake in WLAC. Those buys assisted with the momentum as they reduced the tradeable supply.

I think with them being added to that ETF someone smarter than me still thinks it’s a buy

I wish I had the money to put in at 12 but I guess I’ll be missing this roller coaster unless it drops

DGAF about my cost basis.
Traded it hard this morning.

Started with 500
Sold 200 at 18.92
Bought 200 at 18.78 (was scared after seeing 19.30 pm)

Back to 500

Bought 567 from 18.15 down to 17.25

Sold 267 at 18.70
Sold 75 at 19.20

725 remain.

Warrants remain untouched
5.01 buy price
Approaching 100% gains

Yeah well no one likes a braggart Baw

Getting in again 17.7 to 17.90