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A break down of what’s going on with brokerages and how the short squeeze started

Posted on 1/29/21 at 4:44 pm
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18315 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 4:44 pm
Stole from Reddit
quote:

GameStop short float is currently around 250%.
For a second, let’s just imagine there are only 100 shares total of GameStop.
This means that person A owns 100 shares. Person B is a short seller and borrows them, sells them to person C who buys them. At this point the stock is 100% short.
Person C then lends those shares to Person D who is a short seller who then sells them to person E who buys them. The stock is now 200% short.

Person E lends 50 of them to person F who is a short seller who sells them to person G who buys 50. The stock is now 250% short. So now person A, C, and E all own the same 100. The brokerage sights are limiting buying because they are attempting to unwind that! If everybody right now demanded their shares. The brokerage sites should be on the hook for $34.5 Bil worth of stock that doesn’t exist.

That’s fricked up but here’s where it gets crazy. There were never any controls on monitoring if somebody’s shares had been sold short twice.

When a short seller sells shares. They are immediately paid. So cash is in their accounts. When a person buys shares they pay money out and theoretically own shares. But because the short selling wasn’t tracked brokers do not possess the shares they were putting into the market. If everyone were to request their shares they would default on their obligations and fold. Meaning they only have 100 shares and person A, C, and E all have a claim to those shares. Meaning the buyers are left fighting over who has shares. And the short sellers are left holding the cash they collected. It gets super messy.

If Robinhood were to default. Short sellers win. Then most likely the fed has to come in and save the buyers spending tax dollars. That’s why the fed is getting involved.
By limiting shares and removing the ability to continue to short, they are trying to unwind this mess without it causing a panick.

That is why the broader market is down. Not because of shorts covering... but because of the potential for brokerages to collapse. I’m guessing Robinhood, TD, IB, and E-Trade are on the hook for a vast majority of the shares that don’t actually exist but multiple people own.

Imagine if person A says he doesn’t want to lend his shares. The broker and clearing house has to figure out how to balance person B-G sourcing shares from somewhere else.

If the brokerages don’t go under. Short sellers, the hedge funds, are on the hook. If they do go under... economic recession. Retail investors once again left holding the bag.
Institutions don’t use these little guys. They use IB to trade and then they have the physical shares transferred into accounts at 5/3rd. If IB were to go under their fund would be fine. But most brokerage accounts are only insured up to up to $250k.

This is a failure of the system as a whole. This is a problem created by the top .001% and they are trying to call it a Reddit rebellion. frick that.
This is totally a short selling fault. I think the outcome of this is that short selling gets banned.


Stay safe ouchea
Posted by Nguyener
Kame House
Member since Mar 2013
20603 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 4:50 pm to
quote:

If the brokerages don’t go under. Short sellers, the hedge funds, are on the hook. If they do go under... economic recession


Ok.

frick bailouts and fed gov stepping in. You have to let people feel the consequences of their action.

This post was edited on 1/29/21 at 4:52 pm
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
35145 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 4:50 pm to
Who will play oklahogjr in the movie?
Posted by Shamoan
Member since Feb 2019
9206 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 4:58 pm to
the fed isnt bailing me out. two tiered system baws.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80779 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 5:00 pm to
There is no way this ends where the markets don't take a hit. Best case is a short term correction. Worst case is economic recession.

However, as much as that will suck, it needs to happen WITHOUT bailouts of WallSt.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38804 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 5:35 pm to
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
95633 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 5:41 pm to
Some of this happened in the panic of 1869.

People were selling more shares of gold than existed and there was such a demand that the price spiked and it was impossible to buy shares to cover. Things corrected after the government flooded the market with gold to try and break the control of Jay Gould and Jim Fisk, who had tried to corner the market but come up short.
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
14530 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:27 pm to
quote:

 I think the outcome of this is that short selling gets banned.
No more short selling. Stonks only go up.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84893 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:39 pm to
I’m not sure if I agree with his doom and gloom conclusions other than regulations coming for shorts.

Even if GME triples from here and everything had to be made whole, we’re talking about less than $100B to fix. In 2021 that’s just a rounding error.
Posted by Captain Crackysack
Member since Oct 2017
2231 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:48 pm to
quote:

think the outcome of this is that short selling gets banned.

So then a couple years down the road, what kind of mess do we find ourselves in when there is no short interest to keep stock prices honest? The shorts weren’t technically wrong on the GME short. They just got too greedy with it. Banning short selling doesn’t help the overall market
Posted by Stiles
Member since Sep 2017
3404 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 7:27 pm to
So it’s essentially fractional reserve banking and a bank run applied to stocks.
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18315 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 7:32 pm to
quote:

Even if GME triples from here and everything had to be made whole, we’re talking about less than $100B to fix.


I think it’d cost more than 100B. It took 10B to help Melvin get out of their hole and things are still bad. But even if we use that number, making everything whole would have some second and third order effects. If there wasn’t even a smidgen of truth to the doom and gloom, I don’t think we’d be where we are today.

quote:

In 2021 that’s just a rounding error


True
This post was edited on 1/29/21 at 7:33 pm
Posted by Muthsera
Member since Jun 2017
7319 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

mess do we find ourselves in when there is no short interest to keep stock prices honest? The shorts weren’t technically wrong on the GME short.


Believe it or not, we can follow things like earnings, innovation, and leadership and use that to value stock prices.

What were the shorts "right" about? That they could aggressively attack GameStop attempting to put them out of business and there wasn't enough capital in the market willing to bet against them? Is that how we value solvency and the economic worth of industry?

"Bill Gates could open a Michelin starred bakery right across the street from yours and sell cupcakes for $0.01/dozen and you'd go out of business...sucks to be you, you aren't allowed to exist."

Hell, even in that example Bill Gates is at least creating something and competing, however massively predatory that competition is, in the market. These frickers take $1000 out of the till and pay your customers to go away with your own money.

Do we really want Small Cap companies employing thousands of American workers to exist only at the whims of cokehead 0.001%ers?
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
56306 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

People were selling more shares of gold than existed
we got over that little problem
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84893 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 7:56 pm to
quote:

If there wasn’t even a smidgen of truth to the doom and gloom, I don’t think we’d be where we are today.


I just don’t buy the argument GME volatility is infiltrating the entire market.
quote:

think it’d cost more than 100B. It took 10B to help Melvin get out of their hole and things are still bad. But even if we use that number, making everything whole would have some second and third order effects.


Melvin may have been short other positions too, but the big short names this week simply aren’t enough of the market to move AAPL $85B today alone. I can assure you that if there was a brokerage firm or firms at risk of toppling the broader market, the SEC would step in and facilitate a sale/takeover. Think LTCM.

RH may make life difficult to buy a basket of securities, but it’s not like your 11.367 shares of TSLA are at risk of going away or anything.
Posted by James11111
Walnut Creek
Member since Jul 2020
4659 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 7:57 pm to
quote:

I’m not sure if I agree with his doom and gloom conclusions other than regulations coming for shorts.

Even if GME triples from here and everything had to be made whole, we’re talking about less than $100B to fix. In 2021 that’s just a rounding error.


Doom and Gloom is based on the typical market overreaction ( chain-reaction ) which is feasible.

This post was edited on 1/29/21 at 8:00 pm
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 8:03 pm to
Nothing needs to change. People got greedy, legally. People saw they could potentially screw them, legally. Just make sure no one gets bailed out.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84893 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

Doom and Gloom is based on the typical market overreaction ( chain-reaction ) which is feasible.



Always possible this could be the event that triggers some type of ripple, but putting it out into the universe is usually how these things are allowed to ripple in the first place. Your assets at RH are your assets. They’re not at risk of going away just because RH might (in this unlikely scenario).
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16179 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 8:05 pm to
quote:

not sure if I agree with his doom and gloom conclusions other than regulations coming for shorts.

Even if GME triples from here and everything had to be made whole, we’re talking about less than $100B to fix. In 2021 that’s just a rounding error. ?






Cool

Then why has this caused such a tizzy in the financial world, with billion dollar brokerages doing unprecedented things to curtail it?

Sure it's just a "blip" in the overall scheme of things, but it obviously scared the right people to cause some serious provisions.

We just saw how fragile the system is.
This post was edited on 1/29/21 at 8:07 pm
Posted by Captain Crackysack
Member since Oct 2017
2231 posts
Posted on 1/29/21 at 8:05 pm to
The shorts were right that, before the retail squeeze, GME was most likely inflated. The shorts just didn’t account for retail. They are used to people taking what they publish as gospel and following along. And, overall, it’s a good thing for the market. Every short position creates a necessity for buying which provides liquidity to the market. That liquidity is absolutely vital to the whole system working. Stocks can rise, on paper, all they want; but at they end of the day, there has to be a buyer willing to purchase. That’s where shorts rebalance the market to proper pricing levels.

In this specific situation, hedge funds just got too greedy assuming that no one would notice the sheer amount of shares they shorted. They got caught with their dick in the cookie jar and we should applaud retail for paying attention. It doesn’t make short selling a bad thing though
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