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Started By
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6.6 million jobless claims, market shrugs
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:35 am
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:35 am
and goes up.
Welcome to the jungle baby
Welcome to the jungle baby
9
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:37 am to Lgrnwd
Macy's just got demoted from the S&P 500, furloughed thousands of employees, and is have its worst month ever... but the stock is up 17% today...WTF
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:41 am to Lgrnwd
This is Narnia
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:42 am to Delacroix
quote:
Welcome to the jungle baby
quote:
but the stock is up 17% today...WTF
It's more than a clever quip - the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:43 am to Lgrnwd
quote:Oil cut deal says Trump.
market shrugs
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:44 am to Delacroix
There was near record level short positions in the market this week. If the market doesn’t turn back down soon you will see some serious short covering. That will provide rocket fuel for the next rally.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:51 am to LSURussian
Trump is claiming Russia and Saudi are agreeing to cut production by 10MM barrels.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 9:57 am to Lgrnwd
Oil and gas industry getting its feet back 
Posted on 4/2/20 at 10:01 am to Lgrnwd
If the market just did the obvious everyday, we would all be rich.
Classic sell good news, buy bad news.
Classic sell good news, buy bad news.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 10:03 am to Lgrnwd
Largely priced in, now. A lot of that early panic selling was anticipating this. Good news about "flattening" the curve, a begin of a return to normalcy in May and we could V-shape the heck out of this thing.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 10:22 am to Lgrnwd
quote:
6.6 million
Seriously why would the market react to this?
1). The real number is much much higher
2). It is a known quantity when 100 plus million are under shelter in place orders for a month - market should already have consumed this info
Posted on 4/2/20 at 10:26 am to igoringa
quote:
Seriously why would the market react to this?
Agreed plus there is a built in safety net for these people. Most will come out in equal standing or making just enough to float the next 2 months until things reopen.
Now if payments don't start going out before 5/1 it will be very bad news.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 10:32 am to Lgrnwd
Posted on 4/2/20 at 11:17 am to DVinBR
These memes, I dont get it; should we just let the whole system collapse and go into a depression?
I've commented on a couple of these going around FB and asked that same question to see what they are trying to push, and people just don't know what to say back.
It's all pretty much hipsters from my highschool days that didn't go anywhere, that want Bernie to rescue us all.
I've commented on a couple of these going around FB and asked that same question to see what they are trying to push, and people just don't know what to say back.
It's all pretty much hipsters from my highschool days that didn't go anywhere, that want Bernie to rescue us all.
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 11:18 am
Posted on 4/2/20 at 11:27 am to Pendulum
Most are reddit turds that thought their ticket to fortune was to buy SPY puts.
And I say that as someone who has a more tempered short position....
Shorting the market is like betting against the casino. While right now the odds have lined as good as they possibly can, you’re still playing against a stacked deck.
And I say that as someone who has a more tempered short position....
Shorting the market is like betting against the casino. While right now the odds have lined as good as they possibly can, you’re still playing against a stacked deck.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 11:32 am to tigerfan4120
i mean... what happens when we get to the multi month mark of lockdown (which seems likely at this point) and millions of people are multiple months delinquent on mortgages or unable to pay their rent? We do know that over half of america lives paycheck to paycheck
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 11:33 am
Posted on 4/2/20 at 11:55 am to DVinBR
There are certainly multiple scenarios that could potentially lead to further depression in the stock market. I think that will be the case and we haven’t bottomed out, but that’s just one man’s prediction.
There will also be a growing sentiment that we simply are unable to control this, and a prolonged economic lockdown will cause more harm than good, where that may gain enough political capital to gain traction.
Point is...you can’t predict the market, even when all the news is bad, and when shorting you gotta recognize you are playing against the house, which right now has the full backing of the fed and treasury.
There will also be a growing sentiment that we simply are unable to control this, and a prolonged economic lockdown will cause more harm than good, where that may gain enough political capital to gain traction.
Point is...you can’t predict the market, even when all the news is bad, and when shorting you gotta recognize you are playing against the house, which right now has the full backing of the fed and treasury.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:12 pm to Lgrnwd
quote:
6.6 million jobless claims, market shrugs
If this doesn't send markets tumbling, not sure what will. I'm starting to lean that the bottom is near (unless there's a significant number of unexpected deaths).
I'm hoping it retest the lows but if it doesn't do it between now and next couple of wks, I believe the lows are in due to better sentiment of folks receiving their checks, virus peaking and talks of fed stim 4.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 12:21 pm to DVinBR
quote:
i mean... what happens when we get to the multi month mark of lockdown (which seems likely at this point) and millions of people are multiple months delinquent on mortgages or unable to pay their rent? We do know that over half of america lives paycheck to paycheck
Most mortgage companies are offering mortgage relief through forbearances during this crisis. And the stimulus bill just passed is making unemployment payments very generous. A lot of people will basically be getting full paychecks and some may end up making more not working.
The government is throwing the kitchen sink at this thing to keep the markets afloat. Betting against it is risky.
At some point I think the whole house of cards comes crashing down. But how long will that take?
The market will really turn into a grinder, chewing up shorts and longs. You better be shrewd and nimble to make money trading right now.
Posted on 4/2/20 at 7:20 pm to DVinBR
quote:People have no idea, it just sank in about an hour ago for me and I managed to shite my pants.
what happens when we get to the multi month mark of lockdown (which seems likely at this point) and millions of people are multiple months delinquent on mortgages or unable to pay their rent? We do know that over half of america lives paycheck to paycheck
This post was edited on 4/2/20 at 7:23 pm
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