re: 401k Struggles

Posted by meansonny

ATL

Member since Sep 2012

26045 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 4:31 pm to Big Scrub TX

No bonds.
I'm 45. There is nothing that I would lose that I couldn't gain back with my timeline.

I think some have been looking at recent 12 month returns and see this huge runup in the spring/summer 2023... but they don't register how bad things got the first half of 2022.

Otherwise, I don't understand why the short term memory hits home.

Posted by dgnx6

Member since Feb 2006

86294 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 4:33 pm to meansonny

quote:
But you seemed to experience a very knee jerk reaction to the claims of economic struggles the past 2 years.

These are gaslighters who vote democrat.

Posted by Big Scrub TX

Member since Dec 2013

38521 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 4:56 pm to dgnx6

quote:

These are gaslighters who vote democrat.

You've already been dispatched with data in the other thread. Move on, son.

Posted by Big Scrub TX

Member since Dec 2013

38521 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 4:57 pm to LSUFanHouston

quote:
YTD I'm down just under 4%. Our investment options are not great.

Yeah, that sucks. They force you to choose from limited set of proprietary funds or something? They don't just have straight up equity ETF?

Posted by Big Scrub TX

Member since Dec 2013

38521 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 4:59 pm to LSUSports247

quote:
Ok I had my timeline wrong. Nov 2021 was my highest balance in my 401k. As of today I’m about 8% down from that point.

That still seems lagging to me. Divs would have been at least, what 3-4% clawback of the down 8%? And all your new monies added at (sometimes sharply) lower entry points and experiencing gains since then? Seems off.

Posted by Big Scrub TX

Member since Dec 2013

38521 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 5:06 pm to meansonny

quote:
I think some have been looking at recent 12 month returns and see this huge runup in the spring/summer 2023... but they don't register how bad things got the first half of 2022.

Otherwise, I don't understand why the short term memory hits home.

I know the exact path of the markets the past 2 years (and beyond). My reaction is only to the net result. People keep saying "look how bad it is since 2021" - which just isn't true. Yes, we had a (in my opinion GOOD) correction from an absurd alltime high, which has now filled back in a lot. It's very concentrated in the 10 biggest names - to a historical level. Of course, AI/ChatGPT happened during the same period and that is not an irrelevant bit of news.

Your situation (as you've described) still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. All the new dollars you've put in over 2 years would have been at lower prices than where you started and where you are now.

Posted by Drizzt

Cimmeria

Member since Aug 2013

14881 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 5:19 pm to Pauvetibete

Who cares what your account is now compared to 2 years ago. You only care what your account is 20 years from now. I bet it will be considerably higher then.

This post was edited on 11/7/23 at 7:00 pm

Posted by LSURussian

Member since Feb 2005

133660 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 6:02 pm to Pauvetibete

quote:
Started with a new company around 2 years ago. Since that date I'm DOWN 7.2%.

I realize it's difficult to believe it but you're likely better off in the long run if the market is lower now.

It means you're buying more shares in the funds you're investing in now with your contributions and also with the dividends you're reinvesting.

2 ...

Posted by TDTOM

Member since Jan 2021

24807 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 6:09 pm to LSURussian

(no message)

This post was edited on 11/7/23 at 6:10 pm

Posted by Gorilla Ball

Member since Feb 2006

12866 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 6:25 pm to LSUSports247

I’m only up about 6%, after last year I guess that’s ok

Posted by meansonny

ATL

Member since Sep 2012

26045 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 6:32 pm to Big Scrub TX

quote:
Your situation (as you've described) still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. All the new dollars you've put in over 2 years would have been at lower prices than where you started and where you are now.

Yeah.
Fidelity is lying to me.

Or you don't

quote:
know the exact path of the markets the past 2 years (and beyond)

I don't seem to be alone in this thread with regards to the 4Q 2021 high.

Posted by meansonny

ATL

Member since Sep 2012

26045 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 6:35 pm to LSURussian

quote:
I realize it's difficult to believe it but you're likely better off in the long run if the market is lower now.

It means you're buying more shares in the funds you're investing in now with your contributions and also with the dividends you're reinvesting.

Agreed.
I switch from traditional payroll contributions to Roth contributions on every large dip.
The tax benefit for traditional makes sense... but I have a hard time ignoring the roth upside when I'm buying on a 12% or larger market downswing.

Posted by member12

Bob's Country Bunker

Member since May 2008

33063 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 6:51 pm to Pauvetibete

I am still down big from 2021.

Market has been shite for me the past couple of years. I don’t look at it. I am nowhere near retirement. Maxing my contributions and holding.

This post was edited on 11/7/23 at 6:54 pm

Posted by Big Scrub TX

Member since Dec 2013

38521 posts

Posted on 11/7/23 at 9:05 pm to meansonny

quote:

I don't seem to be alone in this thread with regards to the 4Q 2021 high.

Not sure what you mean. It's obvious, common knowledge that Q42021 was the peak sugar high of the Covid "stimulus". Is that being presented as some kind of supposedly new info?

What I'm saying is the market is barely lower than that now (before including dividends, which should fill in most of the gap). And if you were not only adding to your 401K every paycheck between now and then BUT ALSO using those additions to buy more equities at prices that were almost all LOWER than where we are now, yes, it's weird to me you are up less than 1%. Something doesn't add up.

I'm quoting the S&P for my remarks - perhaps you were in another index? Or under-invested? IDK.

Posted by Vols&Shaft83

Throbbing Member

Member since Dec 2012

70096 posts

Posted on 11/8/23 at 7:11 am to Pauvetibete

quote:
Started with a new company around 2 years ago. Since that date I'm DOWN 7.2%. Hell, YTD I'm down 3.6%.

Currently holding VTSAX, VFIAX, and VITAX.

Using the S&P year by year performance as a benchmark

2021 +26.89%
2022 -19.64%
2023 YTD +14.04%

I'd say it all depends on the time of and the amount of your initial contribution.

But unless you're planning to retire tomorrow, I'd say relax. Mutual fund investing is for the long term, 2-3 years is short term.

Look at average annualized returns over a 5 and 10 year period. Historically, 100% of the time, the S&P has outpaced inflation in any 10 year period and roughly 85% of the time in any 5 year period.

Stay the course, you'll be fine.