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Started By
Message
re: 100 basis points tomorrow, or not?
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:03 am to tokenBoiler
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:03 am to tokenBoiler
What time is the announcment?
1
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:05 am to Lsut81
(all of the following is my opinion):
so ... the biggest weapon the Federal Reserve/Powell has right now is the narrative / jawboning / press conferences
the amazing thing about our current central banking system is what he says carries a SHITload of weight (right, ridiculous or not) SO
when he SAID 75 was basically off the table at the last meeting, people placed enormous bets on just that ... meaning 50 points is priced in
75 would be a surprise
100 would be a shock
and ... there are major issues with surprising raises in base rates like that such as municipal bond payments, bond funds, leveraged bets all over the system, mortgage rates, etc, etc, etc
AND
the real kicker is this doesn't actually do shite to curb inflation - tightening into a recession is basically unheard of - so - any surprises will mean REAL PAIN in every corner of the market
EDIT: one more thing, as an example, the ECB (Eurobank) just had an emergency meeting to either cut rates or do QE -- that's right - they are EASING because the economy is so fricking bad
so imagine 100 basis points here while Japan, Euro, China banks are all crashing
IT. WONT. HAPPEN.
so ... the biggest weapon the Federal Reserve/Powell has right now is the narrative / jawboning / press conferences
the amazing thing about our current central banking system is what he says carries a SHITload of weight (right, ridiculous or not) SO
when he SAID 75 was basically off the table at the last meeting, people placed enormous bets on just that ... meaning 50 points is priced in
75 would be a surprise
100 would be a shock
and ... there are major issues with surprising raises in base rates like that such as municipal bond payments, bond funds, leveraged bets all over the system, mortgage rates, etc, etc, etc
AND
the real kicker is this doesn't actually do shite to curb inflation - tightening into a recession is basically unheard of - so - any surprises will mean REAL PAIN in every corner of the market
EDIT: one more thing, as an example, the ECB (Eurobank) just had an emergency meeting to either cut rates or do QE -- that's right - they are EASING because the economy is so fricking bad
so imagine 100 basis points here while Japan, Euro, China banks are all crashing
IT. WONT. HAPPEN.
This post was edited on 6/15/22 at 11:08 am
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:07 am to Lsut81
quote:
What time is the announcment?
You could have hit search quicker than typing and posting that question. But it's 2pm Eastern.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:09 am to skewbs
quote:
You could have hit search quicker than typing and posting that question. But it's 2pm Eastern.
Why google, thats what this board is for
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:14 am to Lsut81
1pm CT - but watch the markets around 12:30ish because insiders will already know and you'll see the front-run
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:14 am to Grinder
If its 50bp the market tanks. Hell if its 75bp it may tank 
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:17 am to Lsut81
It could blow somebody out of a position where they have to liquidate other positions to cover or force a dealer into hedging which creates a tail wag dog liquidation across all markets. It happens in both directions all the time. I am not saying that is even probable with a 100 bps hike today. But that is basics of a market crash for about 20 years.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:19 am to Shankopotomus
quote:
1pm CT - but watch the markets around 12:30ish because insiders will already know and you'll see the front-run
I'm not making any individual moves nor retiring for years upon years, but was just curious when we will see reactions.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:21 am to wutangfinancial
margin calls are a bitch
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:22 am to Lsut81
even better - then just watch and learn. stow it away in case you ever need to make a move in the future 
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:28 am to Lsut81
quote:
1pm CT - but watch the markets around 12:30ish because insiders will already know and you'll see the front-run
I think we either end up 300 or more or down 300 or more by end of session today.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:34 am to FLObserver
Yeah I dunno ... I am keeping an eye on rates and the spillover to real estate markets and MBS etc.
That's my focus .. and uh .. it's been interesting as of late
That's my focus .. and uh .. it's been interesting as of late
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:54 am to Shankopotomus
Right. The more I think about it the more shocked I would be if they did more than the previous discussed 50pts.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:57 am to Lsut81
quote:More favorably. IMO 50 would signify a lack of economic confidence and would tank the market. 75 appears priced in.
So if it’s 75/100, does the market react less favorably than if it’s 50?
Posted on 6/15/22 at 11:58 am to Shankopotomus
quote:
I am keeping an eye on rates and the spillover to real estate
Only reason I'm really paying attention. Want to buy a bigger place and have held off due to velocity of market the past few months and now uncertainty.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 12:02 pm to Civildawg
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. It’s not *just* rising prices, it’s rising prices because of a devaluing of the currency. For instance, if an oil tanker sinks, oil prices go up marginally, but that isn’t inflation. In order to fight inflation, you must fight the monetary side.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 12:28 pm to AllbyMyRelf
Ya 100 bps should dry up all of that lending going on right now right?
Posted on 6/15/22 at 12:34 pm to NC_Tigah
So we either can’t afford anything because it costs too much or we can’t afford anything because we don’t have jobs?
Is that where we’re at?
Is that where we’re at?
Posted on 6/15/22 at 12:38 pm to Grinder
50 just got to get transistory down
Posted on 6/15/22 at 12:47 pm to thelawnwranglers
quote:
just got to get transistory down
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