re: Why would a depth limited team like LSU start an ACE against a lower seeded team?

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I’d rather take my chances going 2-0 and facing UNC’s #4 on Sunday with Ack on the bump.

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I think that's what JJ is going to do.

Of course, if LSU starts Jump and we score 8 runs in 4 innings you'll immediately regret that decision.

But, I think you've got it right. Ack vs. UNC and their #4 starter (or #3 if they pitch off in game 1) or Ack vs. Wofford.

I prefer Wofford.

It would be nice if we pitched Jump vs Wofford and we're able to get 9 innings out of him, or 7 and use a garbage arm to close it out.

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So in your mind it's better to go Ack -3, Herring -3 some combination of Guidry, Ullola, Little the remaining 3 in game 1, over Jump giving you 6-7 and maybe having a big enough lead to save some arms going into Saturday and Sunday?

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No, that combination isn’t necessarily better. They need to ration their arms such that they have at least 3 innings of availability out of Herring, Guidry, and Ulloa on both Saturday and Sunday. If you play it out the other way, how are you getting through until Sunday with the same set of pitchers available to go anyway. If your argument is that we’ll still need innings from those guys in Jump/Holman starts, that’ll limit who can go on Sunday. And if you need 9 innings from the rest of the staff on Sunday, you’re even more depleted come Monday than you would be if they gave you 9 innings on Friday and 2-3 on Sunday. You could potentially have Ack available again on Monday depending on how much he were to pitch on Friday.

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I thinking going 2-0 is a must. But i like our chances in the championship if somebody has to beat us twice.

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UNC was 9-1 in conference Game 3s (and undefeated non-conference), averaging 11.2 R/G, and scoring less than 9 runs only twice. LSU was 2-8 in conference Game 3s giving up 8.5 R/G and quite often being shutdown offensively. The turnaround of the last two weeks has to continue for LSU to have any shot at winning the regional, but even at that higher level, I’m not at all confident they can outscore UNC using the pen. UNC was the worst possible draw for LSU with the way they consistently hammer “Sunday” pitching. That’s why I think they are better off trying to get by Wofford with the rest of the staff even if it does risk losing Game 1.

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Of course, if LSU starts Jump and we score 8 runs in 4 innings you'll immediately regret that decision.

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I mean if it’s 8-1 or something you can pull him and have him available for a possible final final game.

I still say the rational thing to do is start your #3 Friday, but not many coaches have that kind of balls. Although out of everyone, the coach of the reigning champs should theoretically have the most leeway.

Don’t take the chance of burning through a few bullpen arms on game one, pitch jump!! Simple
And if he has a bad outing, oh well, it’s the smart thing to do, wofford can hit pretty well.

You suck as a poster. Just talk baseball without being the turd you are.

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That's where your thread is flawed. This is the post season, we aren't rationing out shite. You use what's necessary to win the game you are playing.

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That’s not at all what I was suggesting. They have enough arms they can trust not to have to burn multiple pitchers in Game 1. If guys struggle and they have to do that, chances are they aren’t making it out of the Regional anyway. It’s just not a foregone conclusion that they leave themselves with limited options out of the pen on Saturday and Sunday. Sure it’s a risk, but you’re acting like throwing Jump and Holman doesn’t also carry with it the risk that guys won’t be available on Saturday and Sunday.

LSU is going to need things to go right to win the Regional one way or the other. I just think they have more margin for error against Wofford than they do against UNC. I’d rather they risk flaming out early to maximize their chances of surviving. UNC was a terrible draw for LSU as a Regional opponent. They are one team that has shown more than anyone they can feast on Sunday pitching. That’s why LSU’s best chance is to try to avoid using their “Sunday” pitchers against them.

You have made several good counter points in the thread. I am generally on the side of pitching Jump in game1, but think we do not match up well with UNC. Their record shows they can hit, and that they have been pretty good on Sundays. What they do with their pitching rotation and the quality/depth of their starting pitchers should be part of the thinking. Looking at their season, they have won most of their Sunday games and have kept the opponent scoring fairly low. They seem to have pitching depth to go along with their consistent bats. Do they throw one of their best pitchers in game1? Would that affect who we start game1? Probably not, but it is a consideration.

I am in the camp of deciding our rotation each year based on our makeup and the matchup. Our inconsistency on the year puts me in the camp of pitching Jump, and Holman in first 2 games.

It is baseball. Anybody can win if their pitching is on that day and the opposing teams hitting is off.

I don’t feel the depth is bad at all compared to the other teams. If your depth really is limited you especially cannot afford to lose the first game. Coming out the losers bracket with limited depth is even tougher.

Winning the first two games are incredibly important. The losers will have to play an extra game and then try to beat you twice after that. Their depth will be really hurting.