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Started By
Message
re: Why would a depth limited team like LSU start an ACE against a lower seeded team?
Posted on 5/29/24 at 4:46 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Posted on 5/29/24 at 4:46 pm to MikeTheTiger71
That's my point.
You flip a coin to have a chance of winning your regional is you pitch down to wofford.
Whereas you are exponentially more likely to win 2 games then get curb stomped by UNC if you play your ace in game 1
You flip a coin to have a chance of winning your regional is you pitch down to wofford.
Whereas you are exponentially more likely to win 2 games then get curb stomped by UNC if you play your ace in game 1
2
Posted on 5/29/24 at 5:09 pm to Hurricane2020
Our pitching has been much better the last month of the season. You’re acting like we’re going to give up 20 runs if we don’t pitch one of our top 2 against UNC.
Posted on 5/29/24 at 5:10 pm to Hurricane2020
Why because you suck
Posted on 5/29/24 at 5:13 pm to Yeti_Chaser
quote:that's what I've always been told. Stay out loser's bracket at all costs in double elimination tournaments. Your opponents will be depleting their arms, too.
you play to go 2-0.
Posted on 5/29/24 at 6:14 pm to Hurricane2020
Because you always try to win the first game. It gives you an edge.
Posted on 5/29/24 at 6:35 pm to TigerCub
Our game 3 wholesale pitching has been miserable all year. We have been beaten, blown out, run ruled, or given up 10+ points against every team we didn't start our Friday or staturday starter. UNC is as good as gleorgia offensively and better at pitching. The only game 3 we won was against aTm (it was ACTUALLY ole miss, was a brain fart) that I can think of.
This post was edited on 5/30/24 at 11:34 am
Posted on 5/29/24 at 6:45 pm to Hurricane2020
Because we have little depth. A game 4 would not be good
Posted on 5/29/24 at 6:48 pm to Hurricane2020
quote:
only game 3 we won was against aTm that I can think of.
Makes a lot of sense, you haven’t watched us play much if at all this season
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:06 pm to Hurricane2020
quote:
The only game 3 we won was against aTm that I can think of.
We didn't win game 3 against them. We beat Missouri and Ole Miss in Game 3's. And we did not get run ruled in all the game 3's we lost. We lost 3 of them by 2 runs or less.
This post was edited on 5/29/24 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:15 pm to TigerCub
I actually was thinking of ole miss when I wrote aTm. I wrote the wrong team down.
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:15 pm to Geaux_Fight_Win_20s
I meant ole miss, but my point still stands. We allowed like 10 runs per game in sec game 3s.
This post was edited on 5/29/24 at 7:19 pm
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:22 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Reason 1- you run a much higher risk of depleting your bullpen depth in game 1. You are worried about starting pitching depth, but the bullpen arms will be even more important.
This is wrong. It’s better to use up your bullpen in game one than in game three. In the first case, they would have time to rest and reappear in the Regional.
No, the reason you pitch a good starter in game one is to avoid losing - your reason #2.
This post was edited on 5/29/24 at 7:23 pm
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:26 pm to Hurricane2020
quote:I'm no college baseball expert, but let me give this a try:
you are exponentially more likely to win 2 games then get curb stomped by UNC if you play your ace in game 1
UNC is very good, but I'm not ready to say they're BETTER than Tennessee. We pitched whoever we could in the SEC finals against UT, and held them to 4 runs. Of the guys that pitched, Little is out, the rest are available.
Jump in game 1= likely win
Holman in game 2= probably our best shot to win that game. I think Jump has better stuff, but I think Holman has more experience and may hold up better mentally in that setting.
If we go 2-0, we sit back and let them (including UNC) fight it out to play us again. Those will be elimination games, so they will throw their best remaining arms to stay alive.
That puts us in decent shape against them for our 3rd game, and then (relative to them) in better shape game 4 if necessary.
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:27 pm to Hurricane2020
quote:
We allowed like 10 runs per game in sec game 3s.
Only 8.5 actually. And three of the double digits runs we gave were in the first 4 weeks of the season. Hence the fact that our pitching has been better the second half of the season.
But obviously you're set in your opinion. If we don't pitch off in Game 1 we'll get blown out of the regional.
This post was edited on 5/29/24 at 7:29 pm
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:28 pm to Alt26
quote:
In your scenario of making Friday a "bullpen" game you have made that game basically a must win
It’s actually not a must win because losing game 1 gives you a freebie game 2. So you go into game 3 still with your best two pitchers.
On the other hand if LSU loses game 1 with Jump or game 2 with Holman there’s no coming back from that.
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:31 pm to moneyg
quote:
It’s actually not a must win because losing game 1 gives you a freebie game 2. So you go into game 3 still with your best two pitchers.
Do you really think Jay is going to chance of not pitching either Jump or Holman during the regional? How on earth could anyone spin that?
Posted on 5/29/24 at 7:35 pm to moneyg
I’d rather take my chances going 2-0 and facing UNC’s #4 on Sunday with Ack on the bump.
Posted on 5/29/24 at 8:01 pm to hirematthouse
I stopped reading your post right here
Floyd was undefeated
quote:
We had arguably 1 dominant pitcher going into regional play last year.
Floyd was undefeated
Posted on 5/29/24 at 9:16 pm to Hurricane2020
We shouldn’t, but the risk of going 0-2 without both aces pitching is too much for just about any coach. I don’t like it but self-preservation trumps optimal strategy.
Posted on 5/29/24 at 9:24 pm to Hurricane2020
Come in ‘guns a blazin’ and set the tone.
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