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What are some takes on why the spread opened at LSU by 9 and is now LSU by 1.5?
Posted on 10/17/24 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 10/17/24 at 1:55 pm
(no message)
20
Posted on 10/17/24 at 1:56 pm to Tiger2022
Vegas leveling the table.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 1:56 pm to Tiger2022
I don’t know how many times LSU has covered in Fayetteville but it seems like never.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 1:56 pm to Tiger2022
There QB is gonna play
Posted on 10/17/24 at 1:58 pm to Tiger2022
I may go ahead and drop $100 on Arky straight up to win then. Either have a money or the satisfaction of LSU victory.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:03 pm to Tiger2022
it was likely -9 in pre-season
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:06 pm to The Egg
It was -9 preseason but was -4.5 on Sunday and -3.5 on Monday. Tells me Vegas expects us to lose
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:07 pm to Tiger2022
Arkansas was expected to be a 3 or 4 win team preseason and has performed much better. They could easily be undefeated.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:08 pm to Draco Malfoy
quote:
but was -4.5 on Sunday and -3.5 on Monday. Tells me Vegas expects us to lose
Vegas don’t give 2 shits who W’s or L’s
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:10 pm to lsusteve1
Of course they do. There are a lot of games where the betting is heavily one sided. The “even money on both sides” thing is a myth.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:11 pm to Tiger2022
it was at 9 in the preseason when no one knew arkansas could beat a team like Tenn
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:11 pm to lsusteve1
quote:correct.
Vegas don’t give 2 shits who W’s or L’s
So many on this board have zero idea about how sports books work
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:12 pm to Tiger2022
It’s a road game and Arkansas starting QB is not on the injury report
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:15 pm to TheWalrus
No, no they don’t
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:17 pm to Draco Malfoy
quote:Or win by 3.5 points.
It was -9 preseason but was -4.5 on Sunday and -3.5 on Monday. Tells me Vegas expects us to lose
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:18 pm to Tiger2022
The 9 was a lookahead line from July. Lot has changed since then. It (re)opened at 3.5 on Sunday.
If it has moved to 1.5 that is due to Green's "full-go" status as he does not appear on the injury report released by CSP yesterday.
If it has moved to 1.5 that is due to Green's "full-go" status as he does not appear on the injury report released by CSP yesterday.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:19 pm to Tiger2022
It opened this week much lower than LSU -9.
That aside, the reason the line is moving down is because the majority of the money/public bet is coming in on Arkansas getting 3 - 4.5 points at home. That doesn't necessarily mean those people are betting Arkansas to win. Just covering the spread in a close game.
It's tough to win on the road. So anytime as a bettor you get a home underdog it's a bet that is at least worth considering. LSU was in that position last week as a home underdog...which is why the line moved in their favor throughout the week.
That aside, the reason the line is moving down is because the majority of the money/public bet is coming in on Arkansas getting 3 - 4.5 points at home. That doesn't necessarily mean those people are betting Arkansas to win. Just covering the spread in a close game.
It's tough to win on the road. So anytime as a bettor you get a home underdog it's a bet that is at least worth considering. LSU was in that position last week as a home underdog...which is why the line moved in their favor throughout the week.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:22 pm to lsusteve1
I didn’t say want. I said expect
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:23 pm to Purple Spoon
quote:
I don’t know how many times LSU has covered in Fayetteville but it seems like never.
2016 38-10, and before that probably 2004 43-14. Pretty sure the spread was not that wide in either of those.
Possibly also 2006 when LSU was ranked #9 to Arkansas' #5 but won 31-26
Posted on 10/17/24 at 2:24 pm to Alt26
Rarely do you see a spread move past a key # like 3 and QB's status are only of the only injury related factors that will move a line that much.
Books also open up their betting limits later in the week so this could also be a syndicate or whale putting big $$$ on the hogs.. Joe public $$$ isn't enough to move it past 3
Books also open up their betting limits later in the week so this could also be a syndicate or whale putting big $$$ on the hogs.. Joe public $$$ isn't enough to move it past 3
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 2:25 pm
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