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re: To defer or not to defer? LSU Coin Toss Results (Kelly Era)
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:08 am to Adam Banks
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:08 am to Adam Banks
quote:
Nick saban disagrees
well........I guess this is something Nick and I disagree on
0
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:29 am to Nutriaitch
quote:
the decision is based off what you believe gives your team the best results for the entire game, not just any one particular drive.
But the decision doesn’t influence the rest of the game outside of the first drive of each half in a manner that I or the OP or anyone here can quantify and analyze. It’s too speculative beyond that.
The example people commonly point to is “doubling up” the end of the first half / start of the second half, but if you scored to start the game that’s the same thing as scoring to start the second half. Being the last time to score in the second half is the goal no matter who starts with the ball.
The question to me is whether you’re a fast-starting team or a team that gets better with adjustments, and on which side of the ball. I suspect Kelly knows his teams adjust better defensively at halftime and feels confident in his ability to script a good opening drive. (The issue is mainly that his scripted drives haven’t worked out well lol.)
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:30 am to TFS4E
It's the dumbest shite he does and it's not close. Defer the fricking kick and take the ball to start the 2nd half
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:38 am to Solo Cam
quote:
It's the dumbest shite he does and it's not close. Defer the fricking kick and take the ball to start the 2nd half
What in all the data presented in this thread supports your position? It’s pretty clear that it’s basically a wash. It’s certainly not so obviously a disadvantage that nothing else he does is even close to being as dumb. If that were really the case, you should be able to easily demonstrate how it has harmed LSU.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:39 am to OKBoomerSooner
quote:
The example people commonly point to is “doubling up” the end of the first half / start of the second half
This was my primary focus because of this talking point.
As noted, it happened 4 times in 33 games. Once by LSU, in a game where we didn't win the toss anyway. Once each by Tenn, Bama, and A&M. LSU is 2-1 in those games. The most interesting part is that LSU won the toss and chose to receive against Tenn, so that becomes the one major negative stat. (LSU also fumbled the opening kickoff...)
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 9:44 am
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:42 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:this board is FAR too worked up about this issue.
What in all the data presented in this thread supports your position? It’s pretty clear that it’s basically a wash
It doesn't matter.
Some coaches want the ball to start the game, some coaches want the ball to start the second half. And the stats that some posters have provided show that there's no real benefit for one vs. the other.
It's a wash.
I saw put your best unit on the field to start the game. This year (and last year) it's our offense.
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 9:43 am
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:43 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:Bill Belechick and Nick Saban defer
What in all the data presented in this thread supports your position? It’s pretty clear that it’s basically a wash. It’s certainly not so obviously a disadvantage that nothing else he does is even close to being as dumb. If that were really the case, you should be able to easily demonstrate how it has harmed LSU.
Do trust them more or the analytics?
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:44 am to OKBoomerSooner
quote:
The example people commonly point to is “doubling up” the end of the first half / start of the second half, but if you scored to start the game that’s the same thing as scoring to start the second half. Being the last time to score in the second half is the goal no matter who starts with the ball.
Yeah that’s why I find the whole thing pretty funny.
People go on and on about the opportunity to “double up” at the end of the first half/beginning of second half. But if that’s the logic, how is that any better than scoring at the start and the end of the game? (Spoiler alert: it’s not.)
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:47 am to Solo Cam
quote:
Nick Saban defer
Albeit an older article but AL.com disagrees. Bama chose to receive in 4 of their 7 games in 2014. I did not have the time or interest to see whether he changed his strategy after, but at one point it was not so cut and dry for him.
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 9:48 am
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:50 am to OKBoomerSooner
quote:
But the decision doesn’t influence the rest of the game outside of the first drive of each half in a manner that I or the OP or anyone here can quantify and analyze
which is why I keep posting stats that show there is absolutely no "analytics" that points to the coin toss decision as a key factor in winning %. The difference (in NFL studies) in literally .007. I even posted LSU's (and all team's on LSU"s overall schedule the past 2-1/2 seasons) and just Power 5 games based on who got ball to start which half.
so people belly-aching over it as being a stupid or stubborn decision one way or the other is just comical.
it gives no clear cut advantage, so you make your choice based off of your team (and their matchup that game) and what you feel is best for them.
There is no blanket answer, despite what a ton of posters are trying to argue.
They are so dug in on it that they are literally admitting to disagreeing with Nick Saban on it and saying HE is wrong.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:51 am to Solo Cam
quote:
Nick Saban defer
No, he didn’t.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 9:58 am to TFS4E
quote:
Albeit an older article but AL.com disagrees. Bama chose to receive in 4 of their 7 games in 2014
read Nick's quotes in that same article
quote:
"We always have a staff meeting early in the morning on Saturday before a game, and that's when the decision gets made," Saban said. "It gets thought a lot about before, you know that. Last year we took the ball almost every chance we got. This year, we've probably deferred more often than we've taken the ball when we've won the toss. Early on when we took the ball early we didn't start out very well."
literally says they have meetings and discuss it based off that game and the matchup, weather, etc.
his decision was based off his team and how his team tends to perform, not some analytics that says one is better than the other.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 10:19 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:Do you have any proof to support this?
No, he didn’t.
You disagree with Bill Belichick on game strategy?
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:08 am to Solo Cam
quote:
Do you have any proof to support this?
read the articles posted and direct quotes from Nick Saban
quote:
You disagree with Bill Belichick on game strategy?
the NFL and college games are different enough in style, strategy, and even rues that what is good for the NFL is not necessarily what is good for college.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:41 am to TFS4E
quote:
To defer or not to defer? LSU Coin Toss Results (Kelly Era)
Great analysis, but completely unnecessary as we know from much larger data sets and game theory, you defer. Always.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 11:59 am to TFS4E
quote:
TL;DR: LSU should just hope to lose the toss because we win 88.2% of our games when we do
I think your TLDR reveals the fallacy in your post that the validity and reliability of the data. You put a lot of effort in to the post and that is laudable.
It also ignores the idea that, a positive result does not validate a poor decision.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 12:05 pm to barry
quote:
we know from much larger data sets and game theory, you defer. Always.
people keep parroting this line, but nobody has yet to provide any actual data to back it up besides "well, the NFL defers at a 90% rate".
literally every single piece of actual data shows thee is virtually no advantage gained one direction or the other. If anything there is an extremely negligible lean toward receiving.
Nick Saban's quotes on the topic back that up.
They make their decision on what to do if they win the toss in the coaches' meeting the morning of the game based on several factors.
His team's strength/ weakness
his opponents strength/weakness
weather conditions
etc.
there is no blanket answer.
and there is zero data anywhere to back up there being a blanket answer.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 12:06 pm to barry
quote:
Great analysis, but completely unnecessary as we know from much larger data sets and game theory, you defer. Always.
Please point us in the direction of these much larger datasets that confirm your position.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 12:06 pm to lsusa
quote:
It also ignores the idea that, a positive result does not validate a poor decision
and not a single person has been able to provide any data to show that it was a poor decision.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 12:48 pm to Solo Cam
quote:For one thing, they don't always. Someone posted an example with Saban, going back to 2014 (when the games were more defensive oriented), and Saban chose to receive 4 out of 7 times.
Bill Belechick and Nick Saban defer
Do trust them more or the analytics?
Second thing, both Saban and Belichick are both defensive coaches. Tom Brady aura aside, Belichick built the Patriots with a stout defense and a functional offense. That's why when you look at notable players from the Pats when they became good, it's defenders, like Teddy Bruschi, Willie McGinest, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Asante Samuel, Rodney Harrison. That's why adding Randy Moss was such a huge deal, because prior to that they weren't considered elite on offense- it was the defense carrying them, and Brady making plays and not screwing things up.
So you expect a defensive coach to trust his defense more. That plays into the field position game.
Third point, "great coachs vs analytics"... ever heard of Sabermetrics, Moneyball? Sometimes, analytics picks things up that coaches don't notice. It's literally one of the main reasons teams have 10+ fulltime analysts on staff. They don't coach players, they look for shite that provides an edge. Something caused Saban to flip his program from a defense first, running attack, to a wide open game where the offense pushes 40 pts.
Football is getting more like basketball nowadays. Rules make it tough to stop the offense, you're hoping to force the opponent to punt maybe 3 times in a good, tight matchup. Ole Miss punted 3 times, LSU 4.
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