State of the program - 1.5 decades of mediocrity

tl;dr - We suck again, regardless of coaching changes, money spent, etc.

Full disclosure: I am a lifelong LSU Tiger. That hasn't always been easy. My earliest memories were listening to games on the radio when the key offensive player was named Bert Jones and the key defender was Warren Capone.

My first game in the stadium was in elementary school when we hosted a Florida team and handed them a 3 TD loss. I earned 2 degrees from LSU.

As a student, I was able to watch games during the Arns/Archer era and then later (grad school) under Hallman/Dinardo.

LSU always seemed to be the underdog (at least pre-2003), regardless of whether we had an elite RB like Dalton Hilliard or QB like Hodson.

Something changed with, frankly, Dinardo. It was palpable. After perfecting losing with Hallman, Dinardo not only believed winning was possible, he convinced the fanbase it was possible. So much so, when he faltered, he was replaced. A guy who actually understood was Saban.

If only he could have been satisfied with LSU and didn't need to go to the NFL and fail before realizing his true calling. Regardless, for that era, LSU was a program with few equals. Resources, "sole" claim to an extremely rich state for high school football recruits. On a raw production scale, really only big states like California, Texas, Florida and, in a good year, maybe Pennsylvania, had anything like the total number of Div-I signees. On a per capita basis, only Mississippi really competed with us during that era.

Think about that - California is not even a particularly football-driven state. And they had Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA all picking through their high schools. Texas and Florida also had multiple elite football programs vying for recruits and even Mississippi had 2 SEC schools fighting for their kids.

Only (to me, inexplicably) QBs and (somewhat more understandably) OL seemed to be in somewhat short supply for us, necessitating a wider recruiting angle. Other than that, it seemed like one could just recruit Louisiana well and compete with the USCs, Texas, Notre Dames, Michigans, etc., of the football world.

LSU has just underperformed with that advantage. Year after year, decade after decade and it does not matter who the coach is (typically). Saban was here 5 years and fielded 1 really good team and 1 great, but flawed 1. Miles was good at what he did, but already obsolete when he came in. Like Dinardo, too dependent on having 2 good coordinators at the same time. O lucked into Joe Burrow. Frankly, that is all that needs to be said about that.

We have almost as many teams who clearly should have competed for/won the title than teams that actually won it (2006, 2011 were, frankly, better top to bottom than 2003 or 2007 - what 2003 and 2007 were better at were intangibles - 2007, in particular, got very lucky).

So, what does that mean for today? We are in a continual cycle now of paying 2 head coaches all the time. The one we fired and the one we're about to fire. How Indiana can get Cignetti, Bama continues to be great (if not dominant) after Saban or Ole Miss can continue to climb without Kiffin should frustrate every LSU fan.

Why does LSU continue to underperform relative to investment? Is there an inherent flaw that we just cannot see?

For 2027 (as 2026 is over, sorry if that's news to you), we will need an entirely new offensive line. We need to find the next Dilin Jones to use 2027 to get him ready and have a backup that fits this scheme. We need to find great linebackers that can actually play an entire season. We're going to need the next DJ Pickett. We need WRs that don't drop easy chunks and TDs. We're going to need the next Ty Benefield.

And even if we do all of these things, we can go 9-3 (easily) in 2027. If the playoffs expand to 24 teams, then that should be enough.

I say that only because of the resources expended. If we're going to spend 100s of millions of dollars (and it is hundreds of millions of dollars - we're obligated to about 9 figures just to the old and new head coaches, although some of that has already been paid out), and it is still just "mediocrity with style", then what are we doing here? LSU used to be historically cheap (Hallman made some pittance and he didn't earn that - Dinardo was probably the first coach we paid anything like market value, but then Saban started the trend of requiring schools to overpay).

That's over. So it isn't that LSU is underpaying for football. It's the opposite. LSU is overpaying and still not getting a reasonable return. How long is that sustainable?

It's at least a billion dollars in the rearview mirror now - easily - for one playoff team in 15 years. It happened to be a championship team. But exactly 1 highly competitive team (and it was a great one, maybe the best ever by anybody).

116 wins (many vacated) 2012 through 2025. 14 seasons. That's slightly over 8 1/4 wins per year, counting 2019. Excluding 2019 and for fairness 2020 that's 96 wins over 12 seasons - exactly 8 wins/year.

And it will be a scrap to get to 8 this year. To be average. To be merely mediocre. And this year's team cost, acutely, $150m on paper (I am counting the roster, the fired coaches buyouts from last year, the current coaching staff contracts, etc.). CONSERVATIVELY, $150m.

:inb4needtimetorebuild:

#NextYearU