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Posted on 1/26/22 at 3:42 pm to The Boat
quote:
-8.5 is a huge line too
Do you know how gambling works? If Vegas thought LSU was going down we’d see some reverse line movement. The line movement is natural for a blowout in the making.
Vegas doesn't aim to have a position on any game, they make money from the juice when both sides of a bet are balanced, which is why the line moves, bc too much $$ was on LSU and the book became unbalanced.
Also, a 8.5 line is pretty typical for ranked team with home court advantage over a even/slightly lesser team. For example, aTm beat Arky 86-81 at home a few ago where they lost to them on Saturday at Arky 73-76, an 8 point swing.
Posted on 1/26/22 at 3:42 pm to LaBR4
Tari can't score 40. Where are we going to get the 24 points that Xavier and Days were giving us every single night?
Posted on 1/26/22 at 3:44 pm to Gings5
quote:And no one posted about it? Where do you see this?
Pinson is NOT playing tonight
Posted on 1/26/22 at 3:46 pm to mmcgrath
quote:
And no one posted about it? Where do you see this?
I would have to think either (or both) Days or Pinson are playing based on the line movement, but I could be wrong
This post was edited on 1/26/22 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 1/26/22 at 3:47 pm to hubertcumberdale
I could see LSU being maybe 3 point favorites on the road at Texas A&M but at home by 10+ is too high.
A&M isn't a bad team.
4 losses include neutral site vs. Wisconsin (11 pt), neutral site vs. TCU (4 pt), vs. Kentucky (6 pt), and at Arky (Ot - 3pt).
A&M isn't a bad team.
4 losses include neutral site vs. Wisconsin (11 pt), neutral site vs. TCU (4 pt), vs. Kentucky (6 pt), and at Arky (Ot - 3pt).
Posted on 1/26/22 at 3:47 pm to mmcgrath
He's missed the last 4 games. Where do you see that he IS playing? Pinson is out and Days is questionable. I have sauces.
Posted on 1/26/22 at 3:49 pm to Gings5
quote:
I could see LSU being maybe 3 point favorites on the road at Texas A&M but at home by 10+ is too high.
A&M isn't a bad team.
4 losses include neutral site vs. Wisconsin (11 pt), neutral site vs. TCU (4 pt), vs. Kentucky (6 pt), and at Arky (Ot - 3pt).
I agree 100%, aTm is not bad at all and prob as good as LSU, if not better, without Days and Pinson
Posted on 1/26/22 at 3:58 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Vegas doesn't aim to have a position on any game, they make money from the juice when both sides of a bet are balanced,
Pretty ignorant take to suggest books dont take stances on games. This is the most over used statement i see on here and its just not true all the time
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:05 pm to josh336
quote:
Pretty ignorant take to suggest books dont take stances on games. This is the most over used statement i see on here and its just not true all the time
You think a corporate run sports book like Caesar's (a $16B company) is standing to lose money on an outcome of a game?
This post was edited on 1/26/22 at 4:09 pm
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:13 pm to Gings5
quote:If 10 is too high at home then 3 is too high on the road.
I could see LSU being maybe 3 point favorites on the road at Texas A&M but at home by 10+ is too high.
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:14 pm to MOT
Disagree but whatever
This post was edited on 1/26/22 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:14 pm to hubertcumberdale
No, i think they have alot of people working for them, models, etc, and if they set lines, they will hold those lines on some occasions because they know in the long run, their guys are right more more than joe public who bets. Otherwise, please explain games with 80/90% of money on one side or the other where the lines dont move
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:21 pm to josh336
quote:
Otherwise, please explain games with 80/90% of money on one side or the other where the lines dont move
Not sure I have ever seen that. I have seen where 90% of the tickets are on one side but the money is closer to 53%/47% with the sharps being on the opposite side of the general public
quote:
he Goal of a Sportsbook
Before you can understand why lines move, you need to understand what is going on behind the scenes. Sportsbooks are not charities. They are companies designed to make a lot of money by offering betting action on sports competitions. You probably already knew this. Here’s something you might not know: even though the sportsbooks are offering bets to you, they don’t like to gamble at all. Their goal is to try to guarantee that they are going to make money on every single bet they offer.
How do they do this? What the sportsbook tries to do is get the exact same amount of money on both sides of a contest. If they get $10 total bet on Team A and $10 total bet on Team B, then no matter who wins, they can use the losing money to pay the winners. If Team A wins, they take the $10 from the Team B losers and pay the Team A winners. If Team B wins, they do the same thing, but in reverse.
So, how does the sportsbook make money? If you’ve ever made a bet before, you may or may not have noticed that the sportsbook is taking a little bit off the top of each bet. This is known as the house rake (the “juice”). Instead of paying back the full $10 to the winners, they take a very small percentage off of the top as their profit for facilitating the bets.
Let’s look at a real bet to make sure you understand this before we move on. Here is a real spread bet on an NFL football game:
Denver Broncos -6 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys +6 (-110)
If you bet $10 on the Denver Broncos and win your bet, you will get $9.09 in profit back. That $0.91 that you aren’t getting back is the sportsbook juice. So, if the sportsbook gets $10 in bets on the Broncos and $10 in bets on the Cowboys, here is what their accounting will look like:
Take in $10 on the Broncos (Casino has $10).
Take in $10 on the Cowboys (Casino has $20).
Broncos win and bettors are owed their original bet back ($10), and their profit ($9.09).
Casino gives back $19.09 to the Broncos bettors (Casino has $0.91).
As you can see, no matter who wins the game, the sportsbook is going to make a profit. They aren’t in the business of gambling. If they could, they would have every single game have the exact same amount of money bet on both sides and take their small profit. So the goal of the sportsbook is to get the same amount of money bet on both sides of every bet.
How do they do this? They achieve their goal by shifting the lines and odds to entice or discourage action on the side of the bet they need. Let’s walk you through the steps of this.
Setting the initial line.
Reacting to bets.
Why Odds and Lines Change
This post was edited on 1/26/22 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:22 pm to Gings5
quote:No one said it is.
Home court isn’t 7 points.
quote:Which would include home court, and would hypothetically make LSU a small favorite on a neutral, and A&M the favorite at home (not LSU -3 at A&M).
I would think a more realistic line for this game would be LSU-6
If you think LSU would be favored at A&M then tonight’s line isn’t way off base. You’re taking away LSU’s home court but not adding one for A&M.
This post was edited on 1/26/22 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:30 pm to MOT
Ok then LSU -1.5 on road and still way too high at home. You’re nitpicking over a very small amount and I don’t see why you feel the need to argue this 
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:32 pm to Gings5
It’s not an argument I’m attempting to explain to you how lines work.
Posted on 1/26/22 at 4:44 pm to ykevin25
I did I took 11pts and A&M lol.I think we prolly find a way to win but not by 12pts
Posted on 1/26/22 at 5:28 pm to LaBR4
Vegas begging people to take A&M. Tigers by 20
Posted on 1/26/22 at 5:43 pm to minvielle
Tigers by 10 I hope lol
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