re: Some Perspective on the QB Situation

Solid post op. Too bad most posters are either trolls or too stupid to understand how good the kid is.

There’s just as many irrational people on both sides of this argument, if you can’t admit that, then you’re part of the problem.

quote:

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Fact, if JD5 improves his pocket passing skills and effectiveness….no one will beat him out and no one will be unhappy.

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oh, we'll still have unhappy fans, no matter what

I think there's a couple things that factor into this decision for Kelly:
Daniels has ball security, you want him to open up a bit.
Nuss is WAY too wide-open, you want him to reel it in.
If the goal is, say, 3k yds and 30 total TDs, and no more than 10 turnovers, you have to decide whether Daniels can push his production just a bit more (for practical purposes, eliminate the 2 sub-100 yd games, make them 200 yd games... and then hit 1-2 more passes a game in the other ones);
vs
start Nuss (an unknown factor) and hope plays well, while SERIOUSLY reducing the number of INTS he has each game.
Add in Daniels' rushing totals (which some seem to hold against him), vs Nussmeier's lack thereof.

Other factor is, who do you want to be QB in 2024 and going forward? It's been touched on earlier, but is relevant to note: Howard seems to be the true prized QB in the discussion. At that point, 3 seasons into Kelly's tenure, we hope to see runs at SEC and national titles beginning to happen. His roster should be his recruits, his system should be firmly in place, etc.
Nussmeier, if he wins out next year, would probably be looking at a final season in 2024, assuming he tries to make the jump to NFL ball as soon as he's eligible. Best case for the program, he stays for 2025. If he has a big year, that likely doesn't happen.
More importantly, does Howard wait that long on the bench?
vs
Daniels plays next year, his last possible year of eligibility, then hands off to Howard for 2024. Howard takes over as a redshirt soph, 3 yrs elegibility (so plenty of time to play), but nothing on the resume to suggest he's leaving after that year.

My guess, which is worth what you pay for it, is that Kelly will go with Daniels next year for continuity, and then go with Howard the next few after he's been groomed for a solid amount of time. I don't see Nussmeier being such a "can't miss" prospect, that Kelly will change things up and risk losing Howard.
If he didn't already have Howard in the pipeline, then Nussmeier might already have taken over, as he'd be the guy to look at in 3 yrs.

I think Howard is going to be expected to make several runs here.

QB in today’s game dictates offensive effectiveness. I like to look at our QB situation as a barometer for overall offensive potential to compete for a national championship. Depending on which stat line you want to reference, our total offense ranking in all FBS was #29 (NCAA) or #38 (sport reference). By comparison, all teams in the CFP have top 10 offenses by sports reference ranking; by NCAA ranking, all teams are top 13 except Michigan comes in at #27.

Most categories we came in ranked what I’d described as “average” by Power 5 big school expectations (mid 40’s to 60s) -passing efficiency, passing yds, yds per attempt, passing offense, red zone offense, rushing offense, etc..

Where we excelled: completion %, QB rushing yds, 1st downs, 3rd down conversion %, # passes intercepted.

Where we were sub-par: passing TDS, passing yds per completion, rushing yds per carry, sacks allowed (122 out of 131).

I won’t go into the details on JDs weaknesses/shortfalls, those have been discussed ad nauseam here. With JD as QB, which should be the going in assumption for next year, stats show we have the POTENTIAL to be a top tier offense if we were able to improve on those sub-par and average categories. I think it’s a reasonable assumption that a QB in his 2nd year in a system has the POTENTIAL to improve in those areas. If we want to be in the hunt to win the SEC and compete for the natty, we will have to because a similar offensive performance next year won’t be good enough unfortunately.