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Posted on 7/8/26 at 11:06 pm to Shiftyplus1
That’s one thing, but it’s another when your fastball Velo goes from 99-102 to 94-96
Posted on 7/9/26 at 4:53 am to Tigerbait8
If he's not already hurt, he will be soon.. I've watched his last few starts and his delivery just looks lazy. Then when he needs a big pitch he overthrows the shite out of it
Posted on 7/9/26 at 6:24 am to jmcwhrter
I definitely think him pitching in the World Baseball Tournament before the season affected him. They played some really good teams and he was bringing it during the tournament. I think he has arm fatigue and its showing.
Posted on 7/9/26 at 6:37 am to lsufball19
quote:
His velocity and spin rate are down significantly and have continued to dip
This is a legit reason for concern. The Pirates were very careful with him, and he has avoided injury, but when you jump to the majors you just pitch more. you pitch more than you do in college and more than you do in the minors. How much of that has an effect on your arm in the form of fatigue and other things of that nature over the long term, it's still somewhat of a mystery.
Folks think they have some idea but basically it's just that - an idea.
Skenes velocity is down and his swing and miss is down - it's been a pretty noticeable difference from his first two years IMHO. I think it was even noticeable in the WBC so I disagree with the notion that pitching in that is the reason. The signs were there then.
He's still so uber talented that even with that he's managed respectable results, but not best pitcher in baseball results which he was getting.
Is his arm fatigued? Is he pitching through an undiagnosed injury? We just don't know.
This post was edited on 7/9/26 at 6:39 am
Posted on 7/9/26 at 8:05 am to Tiger Ugly
Skenes and the Pirates both say there is no injury, but we see the velocity and spin rates. Also the side by side you can see the changes in his delivery, so something is off.
Posted on 7/9/26 at 8:52 am to Falco
So I dug into his stats on savant yesterday. On the year his sitting velocity is down over 1mph (which is considerable) on his fastball and sinker. Likewise his spin rate is down which is to be expected with a drop in velo. However his change up and sweeper spin rate are up, however slightly. Velocity is about the same for those pitches as well.
I understand that doesn’t tell the whole story for the last several games. I didn’t break out stats that in depth and compare them. So these stats may have dropped considerably in the last several games. So, he may just be in a slump. It’s happens to pitchers too. Or there may be a deliberate approach change to his delivery based on analytics. Or they could be protecting him from oncoming or existing injury. Nobody knows anything for sure.
My opinion is he’s being overly scrutinized on here because of his tie to this place and all of us seeing how overwhelmingly dominant he can be. Which is a little unfair but understandable.
Paul Skenes stats on Savant
I understand that doesn’t tell the whole story for the last several games. I didn’t break out stats that in depth and compare them. So these stats may have dropped considerably in the last several games. So, he may just be in a slump. It’s happens to pitchers too. Or there may be a deliberate approach change to his delivery based on analytics. Or they could be protecting him from oncoming or existing injury. Nobody knows anything for sure.
My opinion is he’s being overly scrutinized on here because of his tie to this place and all of us seeing how overwhelmingly dominant he can be. Which is a little unfair but understandable.
Paul Skenes stats on Savant
Posted on 7/9/26 at 9:19 am to pgaddxn
I mean over his last 10 his era is 5.09, the videos show there is a difference in his delivery, he is wasting more pitches trying to nibble the corners rather than attacking hitters now. So there are noticable differences compared to his first two seasons.
Posted on 7/9/26 at 12:25 pm to Rougarou12
quote:
Everyone is ignoring that the pirates arent bad anymore lmao
Not ignoring, just most here are LSU fans and not necessarily MLB fans so outside of LSU players in MLB many don't know alot about MLB.
Pirates offense is one of the best in baseball this year and they have very good, promising up and coming talent in the field and especially with pitching. The future is bright so the Skenes needs to get out of there stuff is largely based on perception and being uninformed.
Posted on 7/9/26 at 3:26 pm to weadjust
quote:
ea, it's really tough as a pitcher when every game you're desperately trying to keep the score below 2 runs.
The pirates are 3rd in runs scored per game at 5.29
1 Washington 5.38
2 LA Dodgers 5.31
3 Pittsburgh 5.29
Lazy narrative - anyway - we're not judging him on wins and losses. That stat has very little value in evaluating pitching.
Posted on 7/10/26 at 2:20 pm to Tiger Ugly
I totally agree. Skenes pitch mix is totally different this year and that could be for longevity purposes this will take some time to adjust to for him. That being said spin rates are down which could point to injury. Wish Skenes the best.
Posted on 7/10/26 at 7:50 pm to Jim bean xxx
There has been lots of speculation that he has an injury. I guess that always is rumored when a high velocity guy drops off. Wish the best for him.
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