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Quick Breakdown of the Decision Making - Long Story Short: It was Erratic

Posted on 11/8/26 at 1:58 am
Posted by RB10
Member since Nov 2010
54775 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 1:58 am
quote:

1st Q tied 3-3 - 4th and 9 - 56 yard FG attempt.


This is fine. Too much to go for that early and misses happen from there. Move on.

quote:

2nd Q down 10-3 - 4th and 4 at Bama 9 - failed conversion


I’m highlighting the is because it shows how erratic some of the later decisions were. Kiffin was all over the place tonight. I’m also going to have a mini melt, which is really my only one of the night.

I fricking HATE coaches going for it on 4th and 4+ in a condensed field when it isn’t necessary. I say it over and over and over because coaches keep doing this dumb shite. Take the fricking points.

quote:

3rd Q down 10 - 3 - 4th and 4 at Bama 31 - Made FG


I agree with taking the points, but, I mean, what is the logic here? We just went for it on 4th and 4 in a condensed field, which is much more difficult to convert. Why are we now kicking?

If you’re going to go for it on 4th and medium, this is the one to do it on. In a spot you can at least stretch the field and create some space.

The decision making is erratic but this made the score 10-6. LSU got a stop and then took the lead on the following possession. Taking points = good.

quote:

3rd Q down 17-13 - 4th and 3 from Bama 31 - failed conversion


So we’re going for it again instead of making it a 1 point game? Why? Again, this doesn’t make sense. You literally just took points in this very quarter, from the exact same spot, got a stop and then took the lead.

Why are we not taking the points again?

^^^
This is where the game was lost IMO. Because after this failed conversion, LSU’s defense forced a 3 and out, but Bama flipped the field. LSU was pinned, also went 3 and out and the big return happened setting up a short TD drive. 24-13 and the game was essentially over.

I really think the defense immediately giving up a quick TD drive right after LSU took the lead shook Kiffin because this was a bad decision.

quote:

4th Q down 24-13 - 4th and 10 from own 25 - Failed Conversion


Now we’re just in full blown meltdown.
Posted by SuperFanDan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
1775 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 2:09 am to
Well said. Analytics claims another victim
Posted by ForeverEllisHugh
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2016
16902 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 2:20 am to
Great post. Those 6 extra points would have made a huge difference down the stretch.
Posted by LoveThatMoney
Who knows where?
Member since Jan 2008
12908 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 3:10 am to
This is exactly right.

I would even say kicking a 55 yard FG is too damn low percentage wise and they should have tried to draw Bama offside, take the delay of game if that doesn’t work, and try to pin bama in the 5.

Bama likely doesn’t score from there, it’s 3-3, you drive the field again, then kick another FG from the 5 on 4th and 4 to go up 6-3.

Then you don’t have to press for points going into half and hopefully come away with at least another FG instead of asking Leavitt to throw it a bunch and get picked. Go into half either up 6-3 or 9-3.

First possession out of half time you kick another FG to go up 9-3 or 12-3.

Then another stop and lsu scores here to make the game 16-3 or 19-3. Bama answered immediately after the TD and it’s now 16-10 or 19-10 LSU. That TD answer is not nearly as impactful if Bama doesn’t immediately take the lead back. LSU would still be in the lead and in control.

From here, the 3rd Qtr failed 4th and 3 from the Bama 31 down 4 becomes either a failed conversion up by 6 or 9, or we kick another FG to go up 19-10 or 22-10. Prefer trying to get the FG here in that situation. That’s within Starzyk’s range.

We can eat the big return by Bama up 19-10. They score. It’s 19-17. Not 24-13. We don’t do stupid shite like go for it on 4th and 10 from our own fricking 25 and give the game away.

We still might not win, but the basic shite coaching decisions win LSU the game.

In at least 2 games, Kiffin has cost us the win. That’s not a Jimmy and the joes, we have too many injuries, boohoo issue. That’s an “LSU paid how much for this decision making?”

Being aggressive is fine. Being stupid is not.

Kiffin appears to be a Stat Line Coach, not a Big Game Coach in his tenure so far.

I’m not saying LSU should fire him. That’s insane. I know it’s been less than one season.

I am saying LSU could right now, in Kiffin’s first season, be undefeated or have one loss if he coached better, with wins over a top 25 Kentucky and a top 10 Bama.
Posted by saint tiger225
San Diego
Member since Jan 2011
50384 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 3:29 am to
Nice breakdown. Thank you for this.

I have to disagree with you on your first point. Kicking that FG was a terrible decision. Our kicker hasn't ever hit one that long. In that situation, I think you have to punt and try and pin them deep. It's way too early in the game to try and hit career longs with a kicker that hasn't been that good all season.

That said, I agree with the rest of your points. Kiffin was terrible tonight and as you said, very erratic. He didn't read the game well at all and had no clue it was going to be a defensive game while everyone else watching could tell it was
Posted by GeauxGutsy
Member since Jul 2017
6063 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 5:59 am to
Since 2019 Bama has scored on their very next possession after an LSU TD 59% of the time.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
118961 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 6:09 am to
quote:

Analytics


frick that word
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
54402 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 6:16 am to
quote:

but Bama flipped the field

That line drive punt that somehow stuck like glue inside the 5 was when I knew it wasn’t our night
Posted by Tiger Voodoo
Champs 03 07 09 11(fack) 19!!!
Member since Mar 2007
22788 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 6:28 am to
quote:

RB10



My man been doing the lord’s work trying to talk sense into this hell hole of a board (that should be discontinued Chicken, no good comes from this god forsaken place).


You’re right on everything, except maybe the 56 yarder early, pin them deep and let that freshman QB play pinned deep in his own end zone with the crowd fired up.


But yeah I said last night it’s crazy I love Lane but feel like he’s literally made the wrong decision on every 4th down attempt this season except for the Auburn one. Maybe I’m forgetting another but it’s just wild


I really feel like he’s having trouble distinguishing what he had to do at a place like OM vs what he thinks he has to do at a place like LSU. So instead of going by feel he just listens to the analytics and leaves no room for his own judgement.

Wish he could put himself back in his Alabama mindset, but of course he was always coaching massive talent advantages on the OL and at WR so it all came so much easier there.


He will figure it out with an offseason to settle in, I have no doubt about this.

I’ve said over and over that the scrutiny and pressure he’s been under since coming here in the way that he did is just unimaginable and now that all of that hysteria is dying down having a normal offseason is going to be like a completely fresh start and rebirth for this dude to just coach like the leader of LSU. No one talking about Ole Miss and fatass Golding and old sick arse Chambliss now that they are clearly lost without him (THAT was a fricking beat down by an elite team, not like the battle that just got away from us in a 10 minute stretch against another elite team, enjoy the future Rebs )


And speaking of, the other thing I said this week that few bothered to pay attention to was that it was clear three games ago that Bama and UGA were the two best teams in the country the same night that our OL was getting abused by fricking Kentucky.

Anyone that didn’t see Alabama’s front seven outmatching our OL, particularly in the red zone without the space to scheme around them, which we did to absolute perfection between the 10s, is either stupid or unrealistic.


And like you said, the success we had is what actually makes people so much more frustrated when the stalls happened. We dragged one of the best teams in the country up and down the field all fricking night but just don’t have the horses yet to finish on a defense like that. That even led to some desperation plays like going to the reverse pass again because he knew we had to try to punch one in from distance.


Yeah it sucks to feel like we had playoffs within grasp in year 1 and seems like we have pissed it away in multiple games but the bottom line in we are massively OVERACHIEVING in year 1, not underachieving.


The other thing I’ve said over and over is that rebuilding a shite roster two weeks before ESD with no staff and two months before NSD was ALWAYS going to give us the least talented, deep, and cohesive team we will ever see under Kiffin. It’s painfully obvious and just don’t understand how that isn’t the first thought in anyone’s mind when looking at this team.


Unfortunately, Texas and Tennessee present the exact same problem for our OL and offense that Bama did, and might have even better front sevens, so it’s going to be another ugly dogfight the next couple of weeks. Hopefully we learn and adjust and the QBs we will be facing get progressively worse. That fricking freshman is legit and propping up DeBoer so thank shite we don’t have him on the schedule next year lol.


Man that Alabama defensive coordinator is such a fricking chode btw, I fricking hate when TV broadcasts focus in on these fricking nerds, same way they did with Stein (RIP you twat). Makes a game like that so much worse


TLDR Score Board is a hell hole of bleeding vaginas and trolls and Sam Leavitt is easily the best player on this team and all of his haters should eat dicks and go cheer for UGA or Bama or any team that has an OL that wasn’t patched together in a few weeks.
This post was edited on 11/8/26 at 6:35 am
Posted by GeauxPanthers2
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Member since Dec 2024
3575 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 6:39 am to
I agree for the most part. Kicking the 56-yard FG was retarded. Should have punted or gone for it
Posted by bluewatersailor
Member since Oct 2018
670 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 6:58 am to
Pretty good analysis. Go look at the first play after the LSU TD. We rush 3, there's a hole in the middle 10 feet wide where Bama QB has a clear view of the field, bam, 57-yard play. Give any SEC QB that view and time and they look like a Heisman QB. The 2 Bama losses he was harassed every play. That's on Baker. Then series in our Red zone after the 57-yard play. 3rd and 9, we lose contain, QB gets a first down. Where is the defensive end? In high school 60 years ago I was a defensive end, first responsibility is keep contain. Then TD. Both on Baker and his calls.

I remember when we lost to Auburn the year they won the National Championship. Miles says we underestimated #2, Cam Newton. The blueprint to beat Bama was in front of us, that's how they lost both games they lost, get the QB and we failed. Should have blitzed or had a spy on the QB every single play.

And who on the planet does not know we are running up the middle with the direct snap, Stop, stop, stop running that play or at least run outside. Paying our OC millions and he's running plays a high school coach knows not to run.

Final rant, 4th and 10 with 8 minutes left in our own red zone and now you go for it when 4th and 1 against Kentucky you don't??? Please move on. We have talent, we don't have smart coaches.
Posted by jmon
Loisiana
Member since Oct 2010
10466 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 7:09 am to
SUMMARY:

Analytics doesn't take into account the current team makeup, physicality, accuracy, etc.

What do analytics say about a team given a 1st down with 31 yards to score with a defense without three of their starters on the field?
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
50707 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 7:10 am to
quote:

Well said. Analytics claims another victim


I think most of the mistakes were decisions that went against the analytics.
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
292638 posts
Posted on 11/8/26 at 7:45 am to
quote:

4th Q down 24-13 - 4th and 10 from own 25 - Failed Conversion


Don’t think any were egregious except this one. This one came from a spot of desperation.

The others were decisional & meshed with the game flow. You hit on any one of the others & the game is different.
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