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re: Predictability of LSU on Offense since 2008 - Why the box is stacked

Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:41 pm to
Posted by Bleeding purple
Athens, Texas
Member since Sep 2007
25343 posts
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:41 pm to
quote:

no spider policy



quote:

every game for every season...enjoy collating that


Well that is what you are presenting the data as.

Why don't you go back to the OP and put a disclaimer about what games the data came from and what the source of collection was?

Oh and answer my question about the Y axis earlier please.
This post was edited on 9/23/14 at 11:42 pm
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:44 pm to
A spider is a bot that crawls the webpage and extracts the information.


quote:

Well that is what you are presenting the data as.


No it isnt. That is the rush pass ratio for each down for each season..IN TOTAL.

quote:

Why don't you go back to the OP and put a disclaimer about what games the data came from


ALl games. That is the season ttoal. I would love to have access to the actual data, however, you have to pay for play by play data is a usable format.

quote:

the source of collection was?


LINK


ETA: Your question doesnt even make sense. It's the rush:pass ratio. All plays, all games. It's a sum total....why would it need a disclaimer? Actually doing game by game is a completely different structure. You wouldnt even use this analysis
This post was edited on 9/23/14 at 11:50 pm
Posted by Dick Macho
New Iberia
Member since Jun 2013
920 posts
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:46 pm to
Although your stats are rock solid, I propose that simply altering the mix or throwing a wrinkle or two in the mix from time to time will not stop the box stacking fest vs LSU.

For example, with a RS senior gunslinger and the best receiving duo in the nation, the Tigers still had to throw completions over and over for the first half of the season before their opponents finally started to alter their box stacking strategy.

My point is really simple here... the Tigers are not only going to have to throw the ball much more often to back off the defenses but they are going to have to COMPLETE most of them or nothing will change.

It is very aggra vating indeed to watch these defenses with weak secondaries never get exposed or even tested when we face them but Les' strategy is much more multidimensional than most of us think. Personally, the fact that they've replaced all of the skill players allows me to chalk this up to growing pains but there is that part of me that knows that passing the ball is not that difficult when enough effort is put into practicing both during the fall and even more importantly, throughout the summer without staff supervision. Once that kind of work ethic is established and allowed to produce results, then Cam can draw up a playbook that will look more like last year's route trees and timing passes based on reads, etc.

I wish that it was as simple as playing the other QB and calling more passes.
Posted by Leonard
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2014
4254 posts
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:48 pm to
My favorite is when we line up in the I, run the sweep, and Neighbors pats one side of his arse before the snap, telling the ENTIRE LIVING WORLD which side of the field we plan on running towards.

Works like a charm, IMO
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
30397 posts
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:49 pm to
quote:

Oh and answer my question about the Y axis earlier please.

I think the way it originally appeared had 0.57 set as the axis minimum, since it was near the lowest data point, and not 0.

Anyway, the argument can probably be made that LSU's least effective offenses during that time were the two who threw more frequently on first down. Not that there is a correlation, but just to show more data is needed.


Posted by Bleeding purple
Athens, Texas
Member since Sep 2007
25343 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 12:00 am to
quote:

Your question doesnt even make sense


well when you said
quote:

Sadly I dont have access to every data point (i.e., every game)



I read that to mean this was a data set that did not include every game from 2008 forward.
Posted by Bleeding purple
Athens, Texas
Member since Sep 2007
25343 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 12:01 am to
that is what I thought too but that does not explain the variance at the top of the y axis I mentioned.
Posted by TheDrunkenTigah
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2011
18137 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 12:02 am to
quote:

It does. Sadly I dont have access to every data point (i.e., every game) or I could make the model alot better.


I applaud the use of actual statistical analysis on the rant since it's typically just mindless opinions hurled around, so don't take this as a flame, but no trends can be drawn from that first chart, at least not at that high of a confidence interval. As a general rule, if I can draw a straight line anywhere in the shaded area, then I can assert it's just as likely to be the trend, and both positive and negative slopes will fit in there.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 12:09 am to
I do statistics all the time. The problem is you have an outlier year for each down in either 2011 or 2010. Because it is near the centroid it greatly effects the CI. Plus five data points sucks
Posted by USMCTiger03
Member since Sep 2007
71176 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 12:18 am to
quote:

Also, the second chart can be wildly skewed by the long ball. Really should just remove passing and show the trend of ypc.


Was thinking the same thing.

But looks good overall at first glance.
Posted by USMCTiger03
Member since Sep 2007
71176 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 12:28 am to
LSU maintains some pretty decent stats:
LINK

Posted by Yewkindewit
Near Birmingham, Alabama
Member since Apr 2012
21582 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 6:59 am to
Thanks Professor! The decline is obvious once graphically displayed. But,
Posted by Folsom
Folsom
Member since Mar 2006
3558 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 7:05 am to
quote:

Strong analytical work.


Really glad you interpreted for me. Thought I was looking at somebody's blood work. Like someone posted, it's truly maddening.
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
88759 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 7:12 am to
we are paying him 400k a game for that.
Posted by The Mick
Member since Oct 2010
44869 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 7:16 am to
quote:

Play by play would literally be a record for every play for every game. Gotta pay to get that.
lsusports.net has play by play summary for every game.

ps - pull up any game from any season in the schedule section, press and scroll to bottom.

pss - not trying to volunteer you for extra work, just letting you know.
This post was edited on 9/24/14 at 7:20 am
Posted by Jthomley
Arkansas
Member since Oct 2013
380 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 7:20 am to
Hill had 1400 yds rushing last year bc we had a passing qb. This year seems to be back to the same old dive play over and over . What is reason behind this ? No confidence in qb passing ? If so put 1 in that can pass .
Posted by catholictigerfan
Member since Oct 2009
59574 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 8:02 am to
you could have made this crap up, how do I know these are accurate.
Posted by HuRRiCaNe MiLeS
Bossier City
Member since Jan 2010
8153 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 8:12 am to
Miles just needs to stfu and just recruit. He doesn't know shite about defense. His only specialty and experience before taking the LSU job was o-line coach and OC. He sucks at both. If you frequently fail at what you specialize in, then you are full of bullshite when you say "Best o line ever" twice and fail both times.

Stfu, take clock management classes, become ceo type coach, and recruit. Give cam and chavis the players they want.
Posted by LSUnKaty
Katy, TX
Member since Dec 2008
4765 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 8:15 am to
Not sure how valid your stats for 2nd and 3rd downs are since they don't take distance into account.

I did notice that in 2013 our run:pass ratios was 2 on both 1st and 2nd down. Then it went down significantly on 3rd down. I'm fine with that balance.

2013 was also the only year we had a competent and consistent passed at QB.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
7076 posts
Posted on 9/24/14 at 8:18 am to
You're [spewing crap. Your] analysis, and thus your conclusion, sucks for multiple reasons.

First, you don't understand the flaws in your data set. (Or maybe you do understand the flaws, and you prefer to present misinformation to advance your agenda.)

Second, you misanalyse the data set to present misinformation to advance your agenda.

Third, you chose presentations that misrepresent the facts to provide misinformation to advance your agenda.

Fourth, you include incomplete facts to provide misinformation to advance your agenda.

You present pretty graphs in the hope that your dog and pony show won't be critically analyzed. You hope that no one will be willing to do the work to disprove your "analysis" and show it up for the smoke and mirrors that it actually is.


edited
This post was edited on 9/24/14 at 10:06 am
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