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Message
re: Posters saying LSU doesn't DESERVE to be in a regional.....
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:19 pm to GoneFishing21
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:19 pm to GoneFishing21
If they had, they wouldn’t be on the bubble 
We have to wonder whether the team in its current state has done enough to deserve a bid because they haven’t done enough to make their resume speak for itself beyond doubt. These doubts exist because they haven’t shown a big turnaround from their early struggles.
In the NCAA tournament seeding process, there are so many teams to evaluate that never play each other and have no common opponents who must be ranked and weighed against one another for a limited number of seats. The committee responsible for seeding is made up of humans. Even the metrics like RPI are influenced by somewhat arbitrary human eyeball tests. Committee humans like teams that show vast improvements and are playing their best ball at the end of the year. They tend to allow that to be the benefit of the doubt over a team that his been consistently decent, but not outstanding, all year. If LSU had the same number lf wins, but entered the selection weekend with a substantial winning stream, it would have made them more attractive to the selection committee. Instead, they are just having to hope that other teams in front of them fall (or don’t fall) to give them a shot. They lost their chance against Georgia to control their own destiny.
We have to wonder whether the team in its current state has done enough to deserve a bid because they haven’t done enough to make their resume speak for itself beyond doubt. These doubts exist because they haven’t shown a big turnaround from their early struggles.
In the NCAA tournament seeding process, there are so many teams to evaluate that never play each other and have no common opponents who must be ranked and weighed against one another for a limited number of seats. The committee responsible for seeding is made up of humans. Even the metrics like RPI are influenced by somewhat arbitrary human eyeball tests. Committee humans like teams that show vast improvements and are playing their best ball at the end of the year. They tend to allow that to be the benefit of the doubt over a team that his been consistently decent, but not outstanding, all year. If LSU had the same number lf wins, but entered the selection weekend with a substantial winning stream, it would have made them more attractive to the selection committee. Instead, they are just having to hope that other teams in front of them fall (or don’t fall) to give them a shot. They lost their chance against Georgia to control their own destiny.
3
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:21 pm to lsutiger2
I am really sad. I went to a heck of a lot of home games this year and only saw them actually win 3 of them. One was the opening weekend, one was a midweek game, and one was the wacky game against Alabama where they got 13 hits and couldn’t score another run.
That’s after a season of basketball that I couldn’t attend, and a season of football where I only got to see them win one home game in person against South Carolina. That’s a whole calendar year of sports where I can count the wins I saw in person on one hand!
So, yeah, I’m pretty damn sad. I hope they get in and win it all, but I’m not holding my breath.
That’s after a season of basketball that I couldn’t attend, and a season of football where I only got to see them win one home game in person against South Carolina. That’s a whole calendar year of sports where I can count the wins I saw in person on one hand!
So, yeah, I’m pretty damn sad. I hope they get in and win it all, but I’m not holding my breath.
This post was edited on 5/27/21 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:25 pm to kingbob
quote:
kingbob
I think you really struggle with understanding what a bubble team is. You keep creating rebuttals to arguments that aren't even being made
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:26 pm to kingbob
quote:Maybe a fringe tournament team, but when the 1 seeds look at the 3 and 4 seeds in their brackets, I doubt many would be excited to see LSU there.
Hence why I keep saying they’re a fringe tournament team...
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:28 pm to lsufball19
A bubble team is a team in doubt that has lost its ability to determine for itself its post season destiny. They lost too many games to be able to play their way in, instead reliant on how other teams perform or how the committee values certain attributes this year relative to other years. They’re good enough to be in the conversation, but not good enough for their record to speak for themselves. They have to hope that they pass the “eye test”.
This post was edited on 5/27/21 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:33 pm to kingbob
Right, so why not discuss LSU's resume in comparison to the other bubble teams and make an argument whether LSU, with its resume, deserves a bid over other teams on the bubble by comparing resumes...you know what this thread is kind of about. I don't really see the relevance or point in telling us something we already know that the team hasn't lived up to expecations and/or locked up a bid. If that was the case, this thread wouldn't exist, right?
This post was edited on 5/27/21 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:36 pm to lsutiger2
The standard for getting chosen to play in the NCAA Baseball tournament has been basically the same for a while now.
LSU would be lucky to get in this year based on what they have done. You rant doesn't hold water or a rope.
LSU would be lucky to get in this year based on what they have done. You rant doesn't hold water or a rope.
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:36 pm to kingbob
quote:
If they had, they wouldn’t be on the bubble
It happens. Get over being embarrassed about it.
quote:
We have to wonder whether the team in its current state has done enough to deserve a bid because they haven’t done enough to make their resume speak for itself beyond doubt.
Isn’t that part of what the discussion has been, how our resume relates to other teams and how our SOS schedule comes into play when making that comparison?
quote:
These doubts exist because they haven’t shown a big turnaround from their early struggles.
According to you. That’s actually not true, though. We get it. The last four SEC wins weren’t against the absolute best teams. Ole miss is good and that should have been a sweep but it wasn’t. The committee will still take into consideration that we won five out of our last 7 conference series. Thats a turnaround when you start 1-8 against teams who were ranked in the top 5 in the nation at different points in the season. We were swept by Tennessee by a combined 4 runs in three games. Vandy, MSU, Tenn, Arkansas are all teams that were not beaten by many others this year.
quote:
there are so many teams to evaluate that never play each other and have no common opponents who must be ranked and weighed against one another for a limited number of seats.
Which you haven’t done. You’ve just described how we haven’t been up to LSU’s standards, not how our resume compares with other teams who are trying to get in.
quote:
Committee humans like teams that show vast improvements and are playing their best ball at the end of the year.
Well the committee will see winning 5 or your last 7 series as an improvement.
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:40 pm to kingbob
quote:what the frick do you think going 12-9 after starting 1-8 was?
If LSU had the same number lf wins, but entered the selection weekend with a substantial winning stream, it would have made them more attractive to the selection committee.
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:41 pm to lsufball19
Okay, I believe that LSU’s win/loss record (especially in conference) is inferior to most other bubble teams. The strength of the SEC, however, gives them a really solid RPI that hard to discount. Thus, whether LSU will be in or out will mostly be determined by three factors:
1. The extent to which the committee weighs rpi/strength of schedule vs wins and losses;
2. The extent to which the committee values traditional baseball powers and allows factors such as ticket sales, tv ratings, and merchandising to factor i to their decision making;
3. How many underdog teams that aren’t already in the field of 64 win conference tournaments against teams that are already getting into the tourny whether they win or not
It is my best guess that LSU’s strength of schedule, marketability, and series win/loss record will make them a strong competitor among the bubble teams. I think they get in unless there are a significant number of underdog conference tournament champs.
12-9 isn’t much of a winning streak. That’s not even .600 ball. 1-8 is absolutely atrocious.
1. The extent to which the committee weighs rpi/strength of schedule vs wins and losses;
2. The extent to which the committee values traditional baseball powers and allows factors such as ticket sales, tv ratings, and merchandising to factor i to their decision making;
3. How many underdog teams that aren’t already in the field of 64 win conference tournaments against teams that are already getting into the tourny whether they win or not
It is my best guess that LSU’s strength of schedule, marketability, and series win/loss record will make them a strong competitor among the bubble teams. I think they get in unless there are a significant number of underdog conference tournament champs.
12-9 isn’t much of a winning streak. That’s not even .600 ball. 1-8 is absolutely atrocious.
This post was edited on 5/27/21 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:46 pm to kingbob
So you think LSU deserves to be in is what I’m reading
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:47 pm to kingbob
quote:
12-9 isn’t much of a winning streak. That’s not even .600 ball. 1-8 is absolutely atrocious.
I thought the committee would see no improvement?
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:49 pm to kingbob
quote:
I believe that LSU’s record is inferior to most other bubble teams except for rpi and strength of schedule
which teams and how?
We have basically identical resumes with Alabama and Georgia. We beat Alabama H2H and lost 1 game to UGA.
Louisville has been swept in 3 of its last 4 ACC series.
UNC has a 26-25 record. If they lose tongiht, they'll be making a 2&Q exit from the ACC tournament.
Long Beach St only played 39 games and have the #150 SOS
Oklahoma is 27-27, they won't t even be eligible if they lose to TYexas today (they're down 4-1 in the 9th)
Baylor is 11-13 in the Big 12 and just went 2Q in the Big 12 tournament
Indiana didn't play any OOC games and finished 4th in the Big 10
Cal went 14-13 in the Pac 12 and has a 28-24 overall record. If they lose their series to Oregon, they would be either 15-15 or 14-16 in the Pac 12
San Diego is 30-11 but boast an 89 RPI, the #251 SOS, and have zero Q1 wins and only 2 Q2 wins (2-2 in Q2 games)
Those are 10 teams that are on the "last 5 in" and "first 5 out) lists. Tell me, specifically, how LSU is inferior to more than 5 of those teams
LSU is 18-18 in Q1 and Q2 games, have the #3 SOS, a top 25 RPI, won 5 of 10 series in the most difficult conference, by far, in America. They have ranked wins over La Tech (2), Ole Miss (2), Arkansas, State, and South Carolina and finished the season strong. They also went 10-7 on the road and 21-4 in OOC games.
If we're comparing their resume to other teams on the bubble, I'm not sure how you can say that it's inferior.
This post was edited on 5/27/21 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:54 pm to lsutiger2
Most of those making noise about it think not getting in will be the final straw to CPM’s tenure so they hope we don’t get in.
frick that... I want it for the players,
frick that... I want it for the players,
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:55 pm to lsufball19
I’ll answer for him. It’s because the committee will see no improvement from LSU and they will look unfavorably upon us because we did not play how LSU is supposed to play. They will see that ticket sales were down as well.
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:56 pm to lsutiger2
Exactly. Plus in most rankings and circles, LSU has one of the Top 3 toughest SOSs, if not the toughest in the nation. Had they played Bama's schedule, who knows what our record would be...
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:57 pm to lsufball19
quote:This is actual quality discussion. All the sad sacks crying because LSU isn't a locked down host team. They should be, but this post is to discuss whether they deserve to be in the tournament. They DO, and your post gives the reasons.
Those are 10 teams that are on the "last 5 in" and "first 5 out) lists. Tell me, specifically, how LSU is inferior to more than 5 of those teams
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:57 pm to GoneFishing21
quote:
It’s because the committee will see no improvement from LSU
ni imporvement from the beginning of the season to the end? because that isn't true
quote:
they will look unfavorably upon us because we did not play how LSU is supposed to play
that very well could be the case. I do feel like the committee expects more out of our program
quote:
They will see that ticket sales were down as well.
well, we're not hosting and COVID had everything to do with that.
Posted on 5/27/21 at 3:58 pm to GoneFishing21
quote:I’m sure if they could have packed the stadium they would have...
They will see that ticket sales were down as well.
Posted on 5/27/21 at 4:00 pm to lsutiger2
Finished 9th in a 14-team conference and lost more than half their conference games.
There should be a rule that if you aren’t seeded in the top half of your conference tournament and/or above .500 in conference play, you should have to win your conference tournament to get in.
There should be a rule that if you aren’t seeded in the top half of your conference tournament and/or above .500 in conference play, you should have to win your conference tournament to get in.
This post was edited on 5/27/21 at 4:01 pm
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