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re: Possibility of a 10-2 LSU missing the playoffs?
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:08 pm to JimTiger72
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:08 pm to JimTiger72
Zero, next.
0
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:17 pm to JimTiger72
Let's discuss the possibility of a 10-2 record this year. It's has next to 0 chance of happening.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:18 pm to LSUStar
quote:
It's has next to 0 chance of happening.
This is not true with the way the schedule lines up. Unless you're for some reason assuming no growth at all for the team each week.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:37 pm to Epic Cajun
quote:
ust go back through the years and look at rankings prior to the bowl season. Find a season where a 10-2 SEC team was not in the top 12.
Well, they would have to be a top 10-11 team, as there could be two non-top 12 teams who qualify (the G5 team and possibly one of the conference champs). Regardless, your point is valid. Any SEC team that finishes 10-2 will be in the CFP. The only SEC team in the CFP era with two losses that would've missed the playoff was 2019 Alabama. They lost 2 of their last 3 games and Tua for the season. And they still finished 13th behind 3 loss Auburn.
If history is any indicator, it is more likely a 3 loss SEC team would be in than it would be for a 2 loss SEC team to miss out.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:43 pm to JimTiger72
We are not going 10-2 with this defense.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:53 pm to JimTiger72
This is why winning all of your OOC games is so important. Not only would USC be a quality win, it's extremely difficult to go 7-1 in the SEC. LSU pretty much has to go 8-0 to guarantee a playoff spot. 7-1 and you're 10-2 and hoping. You might even make the SECCG at 7-1 then a loss would knock you out of the playoff.
If you beat USC you might make the playoff at 6-2 in the SEC.
If you beat USC you might make the playoff at 6-2 in the SEC.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:55 pm to The Boat
quote:
This is why winning all of your OOC games is so important.
Also why it's stupid and pointless to keep scheduling ultra tough OOC games and damn sure not the first game of the season.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 3:55 pm to The Boat
Ole Miss could be a good example of the opposite. Weak non-conference schedule & we might get in over them with a H2H win if they go 6-2 in SEC
This post was edited on 9/19/24 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 9/19/24 at 4:00 pm to Pikes Peak Tiger
quote:
It might be better for our playoff hopes to finish 10-2 but not make the SECG.
I hate that it be that way but it do.
Posted on 9/19/24 at 4:01 pm to JimTiger72
quote:
Really? I’d predict there will be a few 10-2 teams left out of the playoffs
Yes but no SEC 10-2 team will be left out
Posted on 9/19/24 at 4:48 pm to Lithium
quote:
Yes but no SEC 10-2 team will be left out
If there are 5 or 6 of them, probably. Let’s let the season play out though. There might be more 9-3, 8-4s than we expect
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:54 am to TigerKnights
Well losing the opener again builds in that “opportunity” for growth. lol
Name the game breakers on the team. I think 8-4 is most likely. Just another season.
Name the game breakers on the team. I think 8-4 is most likely. Just another season.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:25 am to JimTiger72
quote:
Ole Miss could be a good example of the opposite. Weak non-conference schedule & we might get in over them with a H2H win if they go 6-2 in SEC
A 10-2 Ole Miss is the most likely one out. Other than UGA and LSU, they don't play anyone. If they lose those two games then they would definitely be the odd man out.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 5:29 pm to JimTiger72
We aren’t going 10-2. Sorry.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 5:40 pm to JimTiger72
Only possibility would be a 2012 scenario where 6 SEC teams have 2 or fewer losses (Bama, LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida A/M).
Posted on 9/20/24 at 5:45 pm to JimTiger72
Low, but orders of magnitude higher than LSU’s chance of going 10-2.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 5:49 pm to JimTiger72
quote:
Really? I’d predict there will be a few 10-2 teams left out of the playoffs. Probably some teams sitting around #14-15
And then ESPN will fan the flames of outrage and demand expansion to 16 team playoff
Posted on 9/20/24 at 6:14 pm to Epic Cajun
quote:
Just go back through the years and look at rankings prior to the bowl season. Find a season where a 10-2 SEC team was not in the top 12.
They weren’t in the SEC yet, but Oklahoma would have been left out last year at #12. Alabama would have been left out in 2019. Florida would have been left out in 2015 (they went 10-2 then lost in SEC championship). Missouri would have been left out in 2014 (also went 10-2 and lost in SEC championship).
The bigger question is how the expanded conferences are going to affect things. Someone posted a while back (pre-season) that it was mathematically possible to have something like 6-7 SEC teams finish 10-2 or better. I dismissed it at first. But then when I actually dove in, I realized there actually was a decent chance to get something like 5 SEC teams with records of 10-2 or better without a lot of crazy upsets. If that happens, there’s a good chance at least one team gets left out.
The other wildcards are the Big 12 and ACC championship games. If you get a champion from either of those conferences who is ranked at or below #12, an SEC team would actually need to be top 10 to get an at-large CFP birth.
This scenario isn’t all that crazy - the highest-ranked team from the “new Big 12” last year would have been Arizona at #14. It’s a conference that doesn’t really have any dominant, blue-blood programs but does have a lot of teams that can beat each other any given weekend.
Same can be said for the ACC, who currently only has two teams ranked in the AP poll.
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 6:15 pm
Posted on 9/20/24 at 6:36 pm to JimTiger72
10-2 means a very real chance at being in the SEC championship so you’re completely overlooking that.
I’d still be high on a 10-2, non-champ participant from the SEC making the playoff. I’d expect 3 SEC teams in the playoff more often than not.
I’d still be high on a 10-2, non-champ participant from the SEC making the playoff. I’d expect 3 SEC teams in the playoff more often than not.
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