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re: Oh look crews up with nobody on again
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:43 am to KamaCausey_LSU
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:43 am to KamaCausey_LSU
quote:
Is this even statistically true over the course of 60 games? I don't think it is
It is statistically true. The numbers you are throwing out though don't take into account the number of games played, and the number of times a particular player was subbed for during a game. If the same 9 played every game, all game, then yeah the lead off would get a decent amount more ABs.
1
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:44 am to ell_13
quote:
We need to find a better solution NOW because he won't be available at the start of SEC
Yeah, I've said the better solution for now but Mainieri won't listen to me.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:46 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:We have discussed this. 20 PAs for every 3 spots is about average. Ben was using the 4th spot for his example. I haven't seen a single argument for that position. Ben used a strawman so he could argue against something that doesn't make sense. Crews in the 2 spot is where many want him and 3 at lowest. One drop is only worth about 6 ABs over the course of a season. That's not a "decent amount."
then yeah the lead off would get a decent amount more ABs.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:46 am to Hold That Tiger 10
One thing to consider is that with every game played, the closer the spread in PAs gets, so the "over a whole season" justification gets less and less relevant.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:49 am to tigerforever7
quote:
Crews batting lead off instead of 3 hole did get him an extra at bat this game. I am not saying I agree with him at lead off, just throwing this out there.
This is one of the many reasons why "at bats" is not as meaningful as at bats with runners on base. 3 hole is where that is maximized. 3 hole didn't get a meaningless at bat in this game because the 2 hole won the game. If 2 hole didn't win the game 3 hole would have batted. But what you definitedly did was bat Crews with no rbi opportunity in the 1st. Then batted him behind your worst hitters the entire game. You have a few guys with .500 on base averages. Crews should have an rbi opportunity just evey time he get up to the plate, and definitely in the 1st inning. Crews also pressures pitchers to throw good pitches to the guy in front of him, which is wasted on your worst hitter with him in the 1 hole and doesn't happen in the 1st inning at all. All this was figured out in 1910 and why just about every championship teams does it this way. 3 for 4 with 4 rbi is way better than 4 for 5 with 1 rbi.
This post was edited on 3/4/21 at 10:51 am
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:51 am to ell_13
Bregman did great when we moved him down to 7th, so Crews should be fine batting 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:51 am to tigerballs
quote:
tigerballs
post more
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:55 am to ProjectP2294
quote:Another good point. We are 1/7 through the season already and he's lead off every game. For the rest of the season, moving him to 2nd will only cost 4 ABs per the average.
One thing to consider is that with every game played, the closer the spread in PAs gets, so the "over a whole season" justification gets less and less relevant.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 10:59 am to TigerLunatik
quote:
Ben McDonald said it during the game if Crews batted 4th vs leadoff. I think he said 20 ABs.
4th is old school stupid think.
2nd is where he needs to be. Especially with Morgan ahead of him and the options we have behind him.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:02 am to TigerLunatik
quote:
I think he just put what he thought was his best hitter at leadoff coming into the season and now doesn't wanna mess with him. He said he didn't wanna even move him to CF
Oh great, he’s puckered up 9 games in...
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:10 am to Meauxjeaux
quote:
Oh great, he’s puckered up 9 games in...
You are very quickly approaching the most terrible baseball poster this board has. In quantity you are certainly there, but the quality is also dropping to Pirate King and TexasFulsher levels.
Crews should absolutely not move from RF, and yesterday provided the perfect example why. You can debate the lineup, but moving him from RF isn't up for discussion.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:17 am to ell_13
quote:
Ben used a strawman so he could argue against something that doesn't make sense. Crews in the 2 spot is where many want him and 3 at lowest
Yeah. I was just pointing out to that poster that you can't just look at total ABs throughout a season without paying attention to the other factors, and use that as undeniable proof.
I want him batting 3rd (2nd is fine if Drost keeps smashing). If Mainieri will refuse to do it, then I want him to at least help Crews with the bottom of the order.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:23 am to ell_13
quote:
We have discussed this. 20 PAs for every 3 spots is about average. Ben was using the 4th spot for his example. I haven't seen a single argument for that position. Ben used a strawman so he could argue against something that doesn't make sense. Crews in the 2 spot is where many want him and 3 at lowest. One drop is only worth about 6 ABs over the course of a season. That's not a "decent amount."
MLB numbers:
Third hole guy had about 35 fewer PLATE APPEARANCES than the lead off gut. Cleanup had about 56 fewer.
That’s over 162 games. Using 56 games as a college season and the MLB figures, that equates to about 12 fewer PAs for the third batter and 17 or 18 for the cleanup hitter.
ETA: two hole does equate to about 6 PAs
This post was edited on 3/4/21 at 11:26 am
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:34 am to doubleb
The only way the leadoff has more at bats in a game than the two hole is if they leadoff guy gets out to end the game, or the last out of his team’s last bat, or the leadoff ends the game with a walkoff.
It hasn’t happened this season.
It hasn’t happened this season.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:35 am to Choupique19
quote:
The only way the leadoff has more at bats in a game than the two hole is if they leadoff guy gets out to end the game, or the last out of his team’s last bat, or the leadoff ends the game with a walkoff.
It hasn’t happened this season.
Statistically it should happen six times in 56 games if MLB stats run true.
To date, the last plate appearances were as follows:
3 for the two hole
2 for the three hole
1 for the six hole
1 for the eight hole
2 for the nine hole
This post was edited on 3/4/21 at 11:49 am
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:40 am to doubleb
And statistically the leadoff will have far less opportunities to drive in runs than the 2 and 3 positions.
Gotta love solo homers.
Gotta love solo homers.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:45 am to Meauxjeaux
quote:
2nd is where he needs to be. Especially with Morgan ahead of him and the options we have behind him.
I think he shakes out to 2 or 3 by SEC play. Paul's lineups during the early season are very experimental.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:49 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
You are very quickly approaching the most terrible baseball poster this board has. In quantity you are certainly there, but the quality is also dropping to Pirate King and TexasFulsher levels.
Crews should absolutely not move from RF, and yesterday provided the perfect example why. You can debate the lineup, but moving him from RF isn't up for discussion.
Hammer me yet you have the shitiest reading comprehension on the site.
Where did *I* say move Crews from RF?
Posted on 3/4/21 at 11:54 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
I think he shakes out to 2 or 3 by SEC play. Paul's lineups during the early season are very experimental.
PM usually won’t make wholesales changes unless we see the team struggling.
I’ve seen hot hitters move ftom 6 or 7 to 3 or 4 and go in the crapper. Guys will feel a need to do more and start pressing to do more if they get moved up.
Some guys have a phobia about leading off and they don’t like that role.
I don’t see any issues with Crews, but you never know about some of the others. Would Morgan like batting lead off and would he be comfortable there? I don’t know. What about Gio there? I don’t know. I suspect in time we may find out.
Posted on 3/4/21 at 12:01 pm to Meauxjeaux
I think when someone on this board wins almost 1500 games they can tell Coach what he should do.
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