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re: OFFICIAL BCS/ NATIONAL TITLE DISCUSSION
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:20 pm to lsumatt
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:20 pm to lsumatt
There really isn't any reason to even worry about this stuff. We will be by ourselves at #3 or better in the computers if we win out.
The problem is we are not going to get any more respect by the voters this year.
The same thing goes for AU if they win out. They have a top SOS and are undefeated in the best conference, but aren't even close to taking #1 in the human polls.
The problem is we are not going to get any more respect by the voters this year.
The same thing goes for AU if they win out. They have a top SOS and are undefeated in the best conference, but aren't even close to taking #1 in the human polls.
This post was edited on 11/14/10 at 8:21 pm
1
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:22 pm to lsumatt
gotcha thanks
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:25 pm to Colonel Flagg
I've yet to understand how people are voting for Oregon over Auburn. I got my SEC bias is written in my genetic code. They have played tougher opponents. I guess it is the still points instead of quality of wins.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:29 pm to lsumatt
lsumatt,
If Boise loses to Nevada....does TCU get more votes? creating a larger wedge?
If Boise loses to Nevada....does TCU get more votes? creating a larger wedge?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:29 pm to Lil Br Tiga
Wow the Richard Billingsley poll is horrid right now..
AU is #3 and TCU is #1 while Utah remained #13??
While Ark is #17?
AU is #3 and TCU is #1 while Utah remained #13??
While Ark is #17?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:48 pm to Roux-Roux
quote:
f Boise loses to Nevada....does TCU get more votes? creating a larger wedge?
TCU and Boise are splitting votes but both are ahead of LSU. So if Boise lost, TCU would move up about a half a spot in the polls and LSU would move up about a full spot. So that is definitely a good thing for LSU.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:50 pm to Catman88
quote:
Wow the Richard Billingsley poll is horrid right now..
Billinglsly almost always sucks and usually thrown out as the outlier.
It is a different poll. It actually uses a preseason ranking (the final Billingsly ranking of the previous year). It also uses an average of teams ranking when you beat them and their final ranking. So LSU actually gets some credit for beating UNC because they started off high.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 8:55 pm to Lil Br Tiga
LSU is as far away from TCU as TCU is as far from AU and almost Oregon.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 9:18 pm to LSUTANGERINE
That is correct but I am saying TCU will continue their decline due to their SOS. Boise St. and TCU should be damn near equal in 2 weeks. They both lost points in the BCS after this week. Boise St will move ahead of TCU if they beat Nevada. LSU will get a bigger pop if they beat Arkansas on the road.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 9:22 pm to LSUTANGERINE
IMO, the easiest route to the BCSCG for LSU is for Oregon and AU to be eliminated from consideration. Stranger things have happened. AU could be eliminated by controversy without even actually losing a game. Oregon's QB could sprain his ankle this week leading to a loss. If both of them are eliminated I KNOW the human voters will not set up a TCU vs BSU CG. Then it will just come down to the bias we will have for not winning the SEC, balanced by the perceived SEC "benefit of the doubt" that will kick in giving us a leg up against all the other one loss teams.
After careful scientific calculation I believe there is a greater chance of all these things happening than there was of LSU beating Tenn, in the moments just preceding T-Bob's ill fated snap!
After careful scientific calculation I believe there is a greater chance of all these things happening than there was of LSU beating Tenn, in the moments just preceding T-Bob's ill fated snap!
Posted on 11/14/10 at 9:27 pm to lsuexpert57
I completely agree with you.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 9:44 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Billinglsly almost always sucks and usually thrown out as the outlier. It is a different poll. It actually uses a preseason ranking (the final Billingsly ranking of the previous year). It also uses an average of teams ranking when you beat them and their final ranking. So LSU actually gets some credit for beating UNC because they started off high.
Isn't he the one that says he drops preseason rankings by week 5? or is that someone else?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 9:46 pm to castorinho
quote:
Human polls are a "what have you done for me lately".
That is Sagarin. Pre-season polls are a big part of Billingsly
Posted on 11/14/10 at 10:04 pm to lsumatt
Lsumatt... there is a rule against 3 same conference teams being chosen for the BCS bowls, but also there is a rule that says top 4 are AQ for the BCS bowls. Is it actually stated in the rules that the top 4/AQ rule is voided if it causes 3 same conference teams to be selected, ie SC wins SECCG, LSU and Aub in top 4?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 10:06 pm to Kenneth
Yes, the top 4 rule only applies if there aren't already two teams in.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 10:32 pm to lsumatt
Followup question LSUMatt =) Does that rule actually read so that when the top 4 rule is voided, the higher ranked team gets the bid? Or does it just not say that, and perhaps the bowls get to choose between LSU and Aub since they are both AQs? =)
Posted on 11/14/10 at 10:39 pm to Kenneth
Does anyone know why a team would be the top rated 1 loss team when it has no shot of winning the conference?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 10:42 pm to Kenneth
quote:
Does that rule actually read so that when the top 4 rule is voided, the higher ranked team gets the bid?
Yes, it explicitly states that the #3 team goes and the #4 team does not get an auto bid.
Posted on 11/14/10 at 10:55 pm to lsumatt
Matt, if Auburn loses their remaining two and Oregon loses just 1, but still wins the Pac-10, would they get the benefit of the doubt as the "best 1 loss team" because they won their conference and we just finished second in the west?
Posted on 11/14/10 at 11:04 pm to Bread Orgeron
I think their computer score would awful, ruining any chance they had. Also, my guess is most voters put LSU over Oregon...but not all.
That is another reason I don't like our chances of passing TCU...we probably need Oregon to lose but when they do, they probably steal some votes from us.
I came up with this analogy that I will use the next few weeks: Imagine a Democrat (TCU) running in a open election against 8 Republicans (LSU and a bunch of other 1 loss BCS schools). The Democrat could only get 40% of the votes, but if all the Republicans are fighting over the same 60%, they are screwed. Now if you can get 7 of the Republicans to drop out, maybe the 1 left has a shot.
That is another reason I don't like our chances of passing TCU...we probably need Oregon to lose but when they do, they probably steal some votes from us.
I came up with this analogy that I will use the next few weeks: Imagine a Democrat (TCU) running in a open election against 8 Republicans (LSU and a bunch of other 1 loss BCS schools). The Democrat could only get 40% of the votes, but if all the Republicans are fighting over the same 60%, they are screwed. Now if you can get 7 of the Republicans to drop out, maybe the 1 left has a shot.
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