- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Score Board
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- SEC Score Board
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: New betting strategy - for me at least
Posted on 8/21/25 at 2:10 am to TigerBait2008
Posted on 8/21/25 at 2:10 am to TigerBait2008
It’s twenty dollars.
0
Posted on 8/21/25 at 4:59 am to Richleau
Money Line bets on 14+ point favorites yield a -1000 payout. To turn $20 into $2,000 to $3,000 with an ATS LSU, that is -110, in combo with a ton of -1000 moneylines, you'd have to hit on like 50 bets to turn $20 into $2,000. You'd basically have to bet on every single 14+ point favorite game Money Line that exists over Week 0, Week 1, & Week 2 combined. Which I still don't even know if there's enough -1000 to parlay to yield a +10,000.
I don't think you realize how many 14 point favorite games, or -1,000 bets, you have to parlay to yield a +10,000 payout, which +10,000 is 100x like you suggest.
I don't think you realize how many 14 point favorite games, or -1,000 bets, you have to parlay to yield a +10,000 payout, which +10,000 is 100x like you suggest.
This post was edited on 8/21/25 at 5:09 am
Posted on 8/21/25 at 5:04 am to Richleau
I just tested your theory and set up a bet to have LSU ATS, and every single -13.5 or higher spreads in Week 0 and Week 1 combined. There were 17 of them that I could do on Bovada.
LSU ATS, and every single -13.5 or higher spreads in Week 0 and Week 1 combined yielded a +1126 payout, or 11x. That'd turn $20 into $220, but nowhere close to $2,000 to $3,000.
If you take out LSU, and just do a 17 game parlay on Moneylines of -13.5 or higher, it'd yield a +550 payout. Or 5.5x payout. Having to hit on 17 games for a 5.5x payout is not good at all.
In summary, this is a really bad strategy as 1 of those underdogs in the 17 games likely wins which ruins your 5.5x or $20 to $110 payout.
LSU ATS, and every single -13.5 or higher spreads in Week 0 and Week 1 combined yielded a +1126 payout, or 11x. That'd turn $20 into $220, but nowhere close to $2,000 to $3,000.
If you take out LSU, and just do a 17 game parlay on Moneylines of -13.5 or higher, it'd yield a +550 payout. Or 5.5x payout. Having to hit on 17 games for a 5.5x payout is not good at all.
In summary, this is a really bad strategy as 1 of those underdogs in the 17 games likely wins which ruins your 5.5x or $20 to $110 payout.
This post was edited on 8/21/25 at 5:08 am
Posted on 8/21/25 at 5:12 am to Fat Bastard
quote:
football is way harder to win at than MLB or NHL or college basketball.
especially NFL.
I disagree if you mean College Football. I won 58% of my ATS last year in ESPN ATS College Football Pick'em challenge. You get 10 random games a week, I went on a rough average of 6-4. I won 60-62% of my ATS on Bovada last year as those were hand picked and not just 10 random games per week like ESPN ATS challenge does.
There is a significant more talent dispaity in College Football than MLB or NFL, even College Basketball. Loyola Chicago, VCU, or George Mason made the Final 4. FAU played San Diego St in the Final 4. You will never, ever see ULM or La Tech or FAU make the CFP Semifinal. Ever. As the disparity is just higher in college football which makes it easier to predict. When the CFP was 4 teams, there were any given year 8, maybe 9 teams that could make it.
The worst team in the NBA and MLB can beat the best team any week. However, Kennesaw State is never going to beat Bama, UGA, or LSU. If you've followed college football religiously for 2 decades plus in tandem with the talent disparity in college football, you can beat Vegas. It's when you start getting sloppy like doing parlays or just betting random games that you don't have a strong feeling on is when you lose.
To specify, this is College Football and not the NFL.
This post was edited on 8/21/25 at 5:22 am
Posted on 8/21/25 at 6:16 am to Richleau
Lol. This isn't going to work out like you think it will.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 6:21 am to Saunson69
quote:
There is a significant more talent dispaity in College Football than MLB or NFL
Yeah but the spreads reflect that and make it more difficult than those sports. Its not worth betting a moneyline on LSU vs Southeastern. You have to go to the spread to get value. And a 40 point spread is nuts. When does LSU take their foot off the gas? Does SE muster 10 points versus the 3rd string, while the third string offense struggles and they end up getting it within 40.
I find MLB, NFL, and NBA much easier, as long as those teams are playing for something.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 6:22 am to Richleau
I’ve tried this. All goes great until Hawaii loses to McNeese at 3:00 a.m.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 6:28 am to Richleau
Isn't this the strategy that Shohei Ohtani's translator used?
This post was edited on 8/21/25 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 8/21/25 at 6:29 am to Richleau
Posted on 8/21/25 at 6:50 am to Richleau
This reminds me of Kramer and Newmans michigan bottle return scam.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 6:53 am to burreauxsballz
Think the bigger part is everyone thinks they can make it a career and can handicap when in reality the best handicaps lose 40 percent of the time.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 8:01 am to Fat Bastard
quote:
that is not how you make money long term betting sports
Posted on 8/21/25 at 8:08 am to Richleau
Always bet against LSU. Bc if they win, you’re happy and if they lose, at least you made some money.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 8:24 am to Richleau
quote:
get good value
You must not understand math and value very well then. Say you add 10 of those big favorites, well congrats you just created the largest house edge for anything in a casino. Big parlays are the biggest house edge a casino can ask for. So if you like burning money, have at it. But it's certainly not "good value"
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:03 am to Richleau
I don't bet often but 1 season, I always bet against the Tigers. If we won, I didn't care about the bet and enjoyed the win. If we lost, I was pissed but still ok because I won $.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:06 am to JGTiger
That’s actually a worse strategy that the one I posted. Never bet against your team. I did bet against LSU vs. Clemson however.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:16 am to Richleau
yeh those 14+ favorites never lose just take a bunch to win with -500 odds.
just take a bunch to win with -500 odds.Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:19 am to Topwater Trout
It’s twenty bucks and makes week 1 more fun. You guys are morons. Suddenly games like Syracuse-Tennessee become fun.
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:32 am to LSBoosie
quote:
I bet no one has thought of this strategy before. I’m sure it will work out for you
If I was adopting a strategy I would take all the picks from Hanny, Ott, and that casino guy every week and bet the opposite. They were all well under 0.500 last year…
Posted on 8/21/25 at 11:33 am to Richleau
I absolutely LOVE this gambling idea.
If you think about it, its a win-win. You either win the bet or you get to tell everyone you know about this parlay you had that almost won if not for 1 team blowing it for you.
If you think about it, its a win-win. You either win the bet or you get to tell everyone you know about this parlay you had that almost won if not for 1 team blowing it for you.
Page 2 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News