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thunderbird1100
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Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
Below is each team's NET ranking and quadrant resumes. This is a quadrant 1 game for us at Alabama at as they are inside the Top 75 (vs. 1-75 away game is Quadrant 1). These results below are as of 2/14/20.

#27 (18-6, 9-2 SEC) LSU
Quad 1 = 3-4
Quad 2 = 6-1
Quad 3 = 5-1
Quad 4 = 4-0


#39 (13-11, 5-6 SEC) Alabama
Quad 1 = 1-6
Quad 2 = 4-4
Quad 3 = 5-1
Quad 4 = 3-0


LSU as of recent
Following up a rough 2 loss week last week in the mid-week this week LSU took down Missouri at home in a close 82-78 victory. The LSU Tigers trailed most of the game after a first half onslaught of 3’s from Missouri (7 for 13) and lost the rebounding battle to a taller Mizzou team but overcame this in the final few minutes took the lead and never gave it back. Skylar Mays and Darius Days led LSU with 23 and 20 points respectively as Days also grabbed 10 rebounds (5 offensive), went 9 for 9 from the line and had 2 blocks, possibly playing his most complete game in an LSU uniform yet. Smart was an efficient 15 points on 9 shots and only had 1 turnover all game. LSU as a team went 29 for 34 at the line which is an incredible 85.3% on very high volume.

Alabama as of recent
Alabama, while considered still on the bubble, was more comfortably in the tournament just a few weeks ago after beating Kansas State and improving to 12-7 on the season, 4-2 in conference play. Since then, the Tide have lost 4 of their last 5 games including a heartbreaking overtime loss at Auburn where they put up 59 threes in 1 game. Alabama’s biggest issue right now is adding quality wins to their resume as they only have 1 Q1 win and a total of 5 Q1/Q2 wins, and this is a perfect opportunity to pickup a Q1 win against us and I’m sure their arena will be rockin.

Alabama projected starters
C (6'9, 242) rFR. Javian Davis
PF (6'9, 245) JR. Alex Reese
SG (6'5, 184) JR. John Petty Jr.
SG (6'3, 195) FR. Jaden Shackelford
PG (6'3, 165) SO. Kira Lewis Jr.

Javian Davis has been starting now that Herb Jones has been banged up with a wrist injury. Neither are 3 point threats and in 14 conference minutes per game Davis is averaging 4.5 points, 3.5 boards (1.3 offensive), 0.9 blocks on 64% from the floor. Davis’s conference PER is 14.7 on the season. Davis logged 5 points, a rebound and block against us in game 1 in 7 minutes of time.

Alex Reese is a big stretch 4 who takes a lot more 3’s than 2’s. In 25.2 conference minutes per game is averaging 10.2 points, 4.3 boards (0.7 offensive) on 43% from the floor and 30% from 3. He’s taken 64 threes to 27 twos in conference play as a reference to how this big man plays. His conference PER on the season is 13.4 and in game 1 against us in 29 minutes had 17 points, 3 boards, 2 assists and 2 blocks on 14 shots (10 3’s).

John Petty Jr. came off the bench against us first game as a disciplinary action but still logged 33 minutes but only 4 points on 7 shots, 7 boards (4 offensive) an assists, 3 TOs, block and 2 steals (whew, stat sheet stuffer there). He is Bama’s huge 3 point threat as in 36.5 conference minutes per game is averaging 14.9 points, 7.3 boards (1.4 offensive), 2.6 assists on 45% from the floor and 39% from 3 (takes 7 a game). His conference PER is 17.9 on the season.

Jaden Shackelford is Alabama’s super freshman of sorts as in 31.3 conference minutes per game is averaging 14.8 points, 4.9 boards (1.1 offensive) 1.4 assists on 405 from the floor and 38% from 3 (takes 7.4 a game). In game 1 against us Shackelford in 38 minutes had 21 points, 3 boards on 19 shots (14 3’s). His conference PER on the season is 16.5.

Kira Lewis Jr. is Bama’s very good PG that in an amazing 38.5 conference minutes per game is averaging 16.9 points, 5.2 boards (0.9 offense), 5.5 assists, 1.9 steals and 3.7 turnovers on 42% from the floor and just 28% from 3 (shoots 4 a game). In game 1 against us he played 35 minutes and had 13 points, 8 assists, 2 boards, 2 turnovers on 12 shots. His conference PER is 17.8 on the season.

Alabama top bench players
CG (6'0, 160) GR. James “Beetle” Bolden
C (6’9, 240) JR. Galin Smith
SG (6’4, 186) FR. Jaylen Forbes
PF (6'7, 205) JR. Herbert Jones

Alabama will play some guys off the bench and not be afraid to. It’s a pretty solid bench but nothing spectacular. Bolden leads the Bama bench playing 23.1 SEC minutes per game and throws in 9 points but is just 31% from the floor. Smith relieves the big guys and in 14 SEC minutes per game is averaging under 4 points, 2.3 rebounds on 64% from the floor and does not shoot 3’s. Forbes is a guy who will come in to shoot some 3’s (35% in conference play) and plays about 12 minutes per SEC contest. I listed out Jones here because typically he’s a starter but broke his wrist against LSU back at the end of January. After sitting out some games Nate Oates kind of inexplicability played him in a cast against Auburn this past week where in 7 minutes didn’t take a shot and fouled out…not sure the plan to use him against us.

Alabama as a team
Spray and pray is kind of what I’d call Alabama offensively. They like to shoot 3’s, a lot of them, and very early in possessions. They have a lot of guys who want to shoot 3’s and in our first game shot up nearly 40 of them. They play very fast and with Jones mostly out offensively, the only guy who really wants to get to the rim often is Lewis, so expect a ton of 3’s in the game. They shot almost 60 against Auburn. In SEC play they are only shooting 33% from 3, which is ok, but maybe not worth shooting nearly 50% of your shots from 3. According to efficiencies Bama is about mid-pack in the conference in defense but because of pace give up a lot of points. Despite being very good from 2 point range (52.8% in SEC play), they just don’t take many 2’s.

The Matchup
The really good news here is Charles Manning is expected back for his first game action in over a month. Now he probably will be limited to maybe 10 minutes or so, but it will be good to have him back and help give the bench a much needed boost, I would imagine he replaces Marshall Graves’ minutes (plus more) moving forward. Alabama shoots a lot of 3’s, we defend the 3’s very poorly (worst in conference) so that’s what’s most concerning about this game and why kenpom has us losing this game on the road. With Herb Jones mostly hobbled/out though I think it could swing things in our favor because he’s really 1 of 2 guys that likes to even get to the rim really for Alabama which means Bama could be relying on the 3 a lot more than last time. When you rely on the 3 a lot, it can sometimes look amazing but also really ugly, so there’s no telling what happens there. Expect some runs though and no lead to really feel comfortable as they could get hot from 3 at any moment and several times in the game. We need to be patient and play our game driving in, getting fouled and making FTs plus grabbing offensive glass. We have GOT to try and put hands in face of everyone out in the 3 point line as well. We cant just watch them shoot 50 3’s this game or else we could find ourselves with a 3rd loss in 4 games. Bama is way too good to miss that many 3’s that are open.

Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1

Main rotational players
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15
SG (6’5, 200) JR. Charles Manning Jr. - #11

Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 84 Alabama 86


The Pirate King
Texas Tech Fan
Pangu
Member since May 2014
37371 posts
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re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
Hate to use the term “must win”, but with Kentucky coming next week and having blown the games to auburn and vandy, we need this win. Already a 7 seed.


alessic7
LSU Fan
Franklin, TN
Member since Aug 2018
1282 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
quote:

"must win"
it is.. For both teams, going to get interesting.


TIGRLEE
LSU Fan
Northeast Louisiana
Member since Nov 2009
30165 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
No way LSU loses to these nappy headed hoes


RTWFU
This post was edited on 2/14 at 9:07 am


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Alt26
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
16680 posts
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re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
Good write up as usual.

We all know that LSU has been pretty bad defensively. But if there is one game (maybe two if you include the 2nd game vs. Ole Miss) LSU played pretty well defensively it was against Bama. Not surprisingly, it was tied for their largest margin of victory in SEC play (funny how that works).

Taylor really smothered Petty. I wonder if Wade will consider starting Taylor this game for that reason alone (of course, Days has been playing great over the last two games so it might be hard to leave him on the bench). If there was ever a team LSU just needs to flat out try to bully inside, this is it.

One big key from the 1st game is that Bama attempted only 10 FT's while LSU went 19/20 from the line. If Bama is scoring, it is either from the FT line or the 3 point line. I think the refs are going to be big here. If Bama is getting to the line a lot this game, then I don't love LSU's chances. If not, I think LSU's energy on the glass could be the difference again (20 to 5 advantage in 2nd chance points the first go round)


ellessuuuu
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2004
6312 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
So you call it a “must win” so you can hammer Wade if we lose a self proclaimed “must win”.

Nice try.


jimbeam
USA Fan
University of LSU
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re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
I want LSU to win.


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The Pirate King
Texas Tech Fan
Pangu
Member since May 2014
37371 posts
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re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
quote:

So you call it a “must win” so you can hammer Wade if we lose a self proclaimed “must win”. Nice try.


Team over coach. Has nothing to do with Wade.

It’s a must win for the team to get where it wants to go.
This post was edited on 2/14 at 10:39 am


TigerLaw40
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2017
1493 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
quote:

it is.. For both teams, going to get interesting.

The Mizzou game was a "must win" game. This is more of a "crucial win" type of game, meaning, the win helps more than a loss hurts. If they win, it is another Q1 win to help the resume for seeding; but even more importantly, it helps get the momentum rolling again and should help to energize the fan base for a big showdown game with KY on Tuesday night.

While a loss would suck, it is not one that is a killer or anything.


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thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
60243 posts
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re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
quote:

Hate to use the term “must win”, but with Kentucky coming next week and having blown the games to auburn and vandy, we need this win. Already a 7 seed.



Definitely not a must win but would be a nice one still being Quad 1.
This post was edited on 2/14 at 11:52 am


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30
TigerLaw40
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2017
1493 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
quote:

If there was ever a team LSU just needs to flat out try to bully inside, this is it.

This! Similar to a football game where you can just impose your will, playing the bully in basketball and getting to the goal and rebounding at will, wears down opponents physically and mentally. If they can wear down bama then that effects their shooting consistency. Also, if LSU can get early fouls on them by driving to the basket, then you can take their shooters out of rhythm by having to spend more time spurts on the bench than what they typically would.


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oOoLsUtIgErSoOo
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2006
25632 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
quote:

Team over coach. Has nothing to do with Wade


Image: https://i.imgur.com/INUrxEz.gif


GeorgeWest
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2013
8319 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
It's hard to call a game where you are an official underdog as a "must" win.

The next 4 games will tell the tale for LSU. 3-1 over that stretch would be very good. 2-2 is more likely. We COULD win all 4 or we COULD lose all 4.


VL Lsutiger
LSU Fan
Gonzales
Member since Sep 2006
663 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
LSU down to a 7 seed today in lunardi’s bracketology


WaydownSouth
LSU Fan
Stratton Oakmont
Member since Nov 2018
4720 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
Group of 3 headed there tomorrow morning . RTWFU


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Pnels08
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Jul 2014
6832 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
Kinda funny,

in the first matchup Alabama came in winning 4 of the previous 5 games while this one they have lost 4 of their previous 5.


I think what worked well in the first matchup is we knew Bama was gonna take a bunch of 3's so we actually defended it without fear of them driving. I wonder if Bama is gonna switch up the game plan some and try to attack us more, or if they just say screw it we were cold last time around keep firing them up.


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Tigercowboy
New Orleans Saints Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
2399 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
quote:

LSU down to a 7 seed today in lunardi’s bracketology


Who cares right now? Seeding is great and all but come tourney time it’s all about the matchups. Also, a lot of basketball left to be played to move the needle one way or the other. Just get to dance and let things happen.


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Woobie
Member since Jan 2017
1793 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2


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HarrisonTown
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2019
128 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
Thanks thunderbird, as always.
Welcome back Mr. Manning.
We've missed you and hope you pick up right where you left off.
Bully basketball is this teams game, all the way.
The high offensive efficiency is the bully paint game.
The rebounding margins are the result of the bully paint game.
The free throw attempts are the result of the bully paint game.
Keep up the fantastic free throw shooting Tigers!
Pound the paint Tigers!
Looking forward to the home stretch;
this would be a great time to go on a run.
Geaux Tigers!


Bjorn Cyborg
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2016
13778 posts

re: Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Alabama; Sat 2/15; 3:00 CST; ESPN2
I hope Manning is able to play extended minutes. We need him on both ends of the floor.


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