Below is each team's NET ranking and quadrant resumes. This is a quadrant 1 game for us at Alabama at as they are inside the Top 75 (vs. 1-75 away game is Quadrant 1). These results below are as of 2/14/20.

#27 (18-6, 9-2 SEC) LSU
Quad 1 = 3-4
Quad 2 = 6-1
Quad 3 = 5-1
Quad 4 = 4-0

#39 (13-11, 5-6 SEC) Alabama
Quad 1 = 1-6
Quad 2 = 4-4
Quad 3 = 5-1
Quad 4 = 3-0

LSU as of recent
Following up a rough 2 loss week last week in the mid-week this week LSU took down Missouri at home in a close 82-78 victory. The LSU Tigers trailed most of the game after a first half onslaught of 3’s from Missouri (7 for 13) and lost the rebounding battle to a taller Mizzou team but overcame this in the final few minutes took the lead and never gave it back. Skylar Mays and Darius Days led LSU with 23 and 20 points respectively as Days also grabbed 10 rebounds (5 offensive), went 9 for 9 from the line and had 2 blocks, possibly playing his most complete game in an LSU uniform yet. Smart was an efficient 15 points on 9 shots and only had 1 turnover all game. LSU as a team went 29 for 34 at the line which is an incredible 85.3% on very high volume.

Alabama as of recent
Alabama, while considered still on the bubble, was more comfortably in the tournament just a few weeks ago after beating Kansas State and improving to 12-7 on the season, 4-2 in conference play. Since then, the Tide have lost 4 of their last 5 games including a heartbreaking overtime loss at Auburn where they put up 59 threes in 1 game. Alabama’s biggest issue right now is adding quality wins to their resume as they only have 1 Q1 win and a total of 5 Q1/Q2 wins, and this is a perfect opportunity to pickup a Q1 win against us and I’m sure their arena will be rockin.

Alabama projected starters
C (6'9, 242) rFR. Javian Davis
PF (6'9, 245) JR. Alex Reese
SG (6'5, 184) JR. John Petty Jr.
SG (6'3, 195) FR. Jaden Shackelford
PG (6'3, 165) SO. Kira Lewis Jr.

Javian Davis has been starting now that Herb Jones has been banged up with a wrist injury. Neither are 3 point threats and in 14 conference minutes per game Davis is averaging 4.5 points, 3.5 boards (1.3 offensive), 0.9 blocks on 64% from the floor. Davis’s conference PER is 14.7 on the season. Davis logged 5 points, a rebound and block against us in game 1 in 7 minutes of time.

Alex Reese is a big stretch 4 who takes a lot more 3’s than 2’s. In 25.2 conference minutes per game is averaging 10.2 points, 4.3 boards (0.7 offensive) on 43% from the floor and 30% from 3. He’s taken 64 threes to 27 twos in conference play as a reference to how this big man plays. His conference PER on the season is 13.4 and in game 1 against us in 29 minutes had 17 points, 3 boards, 2 assists and 2 blocks on 14 shots (10 3’s).

John Petty Jr. came off the bench against us first game as a disciplinary action but still logged 33 minutes but only 4 points on 7 shots, 7 boards (4 offensive) an assists, 3 TOs, block and 2 steals (whew, stat sheet stuffer there). He is Bama’s huge 3 point threat as in 36.5 conference minutes per game is averaging 14.9 points, 7.3 boards (1.4 offensive), 2.6 assists on 45% from the floor and 39% from 3 (takes 7 a game). His conference PER is 17.9 on the season.

Jaden Shackelford is Alabama’s super freshman of sorts as in 31.3 conference minutes per game is averaging 14.8 points, 4.9 boards (1.1 offensive) 1.4 assists on 405 from the floor and 38% from 3 (takes 7.4 a game). In game 1 against us Shackelford in 38 minutes had 21 points, 3 boards on 19 shots (14 3’s). His conference PER on the season is 16.5.

Kira Lewis Jr. is Bama’s very good PG that in an amazing 38.5 conference minutes per game is averaging 16.9 points, 5.2 boards (0.9 offense), 5.5 assists, 1.9 steals and 3.7 turnovers on 42% from the floor and just 28% from 3 (shoots 4 a game). In game 1 against us he played 35 minutes and had 13 points, 8 assists, 2 boards, 2 turnovers on 12 shots. His conference PER is 17.8 on the season.

Alabama top bench players
CG (6'0, 160) GR. James “Beetle” Bolden
C (6’9, 240) JR. Galin Smith
SG (6’4, 186) FR. Jaylen Forbes
PF (6'7, 205) JR. Herbert Jones

Alabama will play some guys off the bench and not be afraid to. It’s a pretty solid bench but nothing spectacular. Bolden leads the Bama bench playing 23.1 SEC minutes per game and throws in 9 points but is just 31% from the floor. Smith relieves the big guys and in 14 SEC minutes per game is averaging under 4 points, 2.3 rebounds on 64% from the floor and does not shoot 3’s. Forbes is a guy who will come in to shoot some 3’s (35% in conference play) and plays about 12 minutes per SEC contest. I listed out Jones here because typically he’s a starter but broke his wrist against LSU back at the end of January. After sitting out some games Nate Oates kind of inexplicability played him in a cast against Auburn this past week where in 7 minutes didn’t take a shot and fouled out…not sure the plan to use him against us.

Alabama as a team
Spray and pray is kind of what I’d call Alabama offensively. They like to shoot 3’s, a lot of them, and very early in possessions. They have a lot of guys who want to shoot 3’s and in our first game shot up nearly 40 of them. They play very fast and with Jones mostly out offensively, the only guy who really wants to get to the rim often is Lewis, so expect a ton of 3’s in the game. They shot almost 60 against Auburn. In SEC play they are only shooting 33% from 3, which is ok, but maybe not worth shooting nearly 50% of your shots from 3. According to efficiencies Bama is about mid-pack in the conference in defense but because of pace give up a lot of points. Despite being very good from 2 point range (52.8% in SEC play), they just don’t take many 2’s.

The Matchup
The really good news here is Charles Manning is expected back for his first game action in over a month. Now he probably will be limited to maybe 10 minutes or so, but it will be good to have him back and help give the bench a much needed boost, I would imagine he replaces Marshall Graves’ minutes (plus more) moving forward. Alabama shoots a lot of 3’s, we defend the 3’s very poorly (worst in conference) so that’s what’s most concerning about this game and why kenpom has us losing this game on the road. With Herb Jones mostly hobbled/out though I think it could swing things in our favor because he’s really 1 of 2 guys that likes to even get to the rim really for Alabama which means Bama could be relying on the 3 a lot more than last time. When you rely on the 3 a lot, it can sometimes look amazing but also really ugly, so there’s no telling what happens there. Expect some runs though and no lead to really feel comfortable as they could get hot from 3 at any moment and several times in the game. We need to be patient and play our game driving in, getting fouled and making FTs plus grabbing offensive glass. We have GOT to try and put hands in face of everyone out in the 3 point line as well. We cant just watch them shoot 50 3’s this game or else we could find ourselves with a 3rd loss in 4 games. Bama is way too good to miss that many 3’s that are open.

Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1

Main rotational players
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15
SG (6’5, 200) JR. Charles Manning Jr. - #11

Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 84 Alabama 86