LSU is -235 to go over 7.5 games

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this is an absurd odd to offer.

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Lay 100K and post it, I see three layups on the schedule. Where are the other 5????

The math is based on preseason models. My models show the same thing, but these same models show every team in CFB having at least 3 losses this year.

In other words, its a conservative model until the first 4 games of the season are played, of course Vegas will update their odds as soon as Week 1 is complete.

I've attached my current season outlook (preseason is only ever so accurate) and then, the Clemson game, for instance is the roster matchup alone... which, statistically, we show only a 60% chance of winning that game, but are double digit favorites.

So.. my point is, im not arguing the math, but I am saying that there's a huge difference in Vegas odds and what likely outcomes actually are if you understand what you're betting on.

For example, there's a difference between taking a +850 straight bet vs a +850 carefully calculated parlay when you look at historical outcomes.

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and I did bet on it.

Schedule could easily lead to 4 losses. We shall see.

Typically when you lock up money for a few months, you want a better return.

There's no such thing as free money.

I say that as someone who has successfully pounced on that type of bet in the past.

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Phil Steele

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Quit taking him seriously years ago..,

What did your model say about last year’s LSU team? And how much money did you lose?

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My app has it listed at 8.5 wins

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What are the odds? Probably better than -235

-118

Terrible value on a bet like that but go for it