LSU Baseball Roster building and talent evaluations?

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How does Jay rebuild this in such a Wild West environment?

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It would be one thing if Jay and the staff had not had success in this environment, but that’s not the case. To this point, the 26 portal class is an outlier.

They pretty much hit on 100% of the portal targets in 25 and also did well in recruiting last year. They did well in 24, especially in recruiting. This year’s freshman class looks very strong in the field. None of the pitchers was quite ready, but a couple of them have real potential.

More of our top end talent has come from out of state rather than in state under Jay. At the same time, there have not been many LA kids that have gone elsewhere that have produced at an LSU level.

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Look at teams like Southern Miss. Lots of LA guys on the roster. Probably 85% HS guys they grow within their system.

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Well those guys put up better numbers because they are generally playing lower competition. They are also going to Southern Miss to sit for a year or two because they weren't good enough in high school to get a free ride + NIL to go to LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas, etc.

It's not like USM is poaching top end LA talent who plays for them day 1. They HAVE to develop guys. They have time to develop guys. LSU isn't afforded the same luxury given the schedule and expectations.

The CA kids like Curiel mostly play in the best league in the country. We're not just using video to scout these guys. Jay (and the staff) have significantly more connections around the country than any staff we've had here previously.

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There’s something to be said for a 4 year guy that’s team first vs a 2 year guy that’s me first.

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That'd be great if any of the 4 year guys actually decided to be 4 year guys. I mean Mikey Ryan was a Catholic League kid who jumped at the first sign of playing time elsewhere.

Conversely, our portal guys have been elite. Berry, White, Skenes, Holman, Jump, Dickinson and Eyanson.

Then we've had 2 year guys who are about as team first as it gets in Stanfield and Braswell.

This year was the first year where our "top end" guys were bad, and there's a variety of reasons for that (timing, money, injuries).

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How does Jay rebuild this in such a Wild West environment?

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The same way he has the last few years.

You have a good core of guys in Braun, Serna, Bide, Ruckert, Evans, Moore and Schmidt. If not a single one of those guys gets any better, you're still not in trouble at all. They likely will, but you get my point.

He will use this time off (and increased funds - back to the level they were at prior to this past offseason) to go out and fill the gaps in the portal and the draft.

There are probably 200 HS kids nationwide that can be top tier talent. 100 of those will never play in college. There are a lot of kids who can develop, but few who have the mindset to do so

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His preference is to have ~6 HS signees on the field with ~3 transfers.

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Did Jay say this or is that your understanding?

Apart from injuries down the stretch, our entire lineup would've been our HS recruits save Stanfield.

Agree with the OP that building an SEC baseball roster is like the wild West. A HC has to find the sweet spot among HS candidates even years in advance. Some will use LSU as leverage with MLB. If you only recruit low-end candidates, they may never develop to be successful in the SEC.

Just madness.

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Did Jay say this or is that your understanding?

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My understanding. He's repeatedly said he wants a team full of home grown talent that has portal supplements.

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If we can’t get better starting pitching than what we had this year, we won’t be good.

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For SEC pitchers, Schmidt was 29th in IP this year and 15th in ERA out of this group. Of these 15, 9 were juniors/seniors and only 6 were sophomores (no freshman) including Schmidt. If his progression continues he will be a top level upperclassman next year.

Evans had much better statistics across the board than his ERA indicates. This anomaly will likely not happen two years in a row. He also will be an upperclassman.

Moore was hurt before much SEC play but throws strikes and should be a reliable upperclassman next year.

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For SEC pitchers, Schmidt was 29th in IP this year and 15th in ERA out of this group. Of these 15, 9 were juniors/seniors and only 6 were sophomores (no freshman) including Schmidt. If his progression continues he will be a top level upperclassman next year. Evans had much better statistics across the board than his ERA indicates. This anomaly will likely not happen two years in a row. He also will be an upperclassman. Moore was hurt before much SEC play but throws strikes and should be a reliable upperclassman next year.

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The three have the potential to be good. Two will be juniors and they both should improve, but they must improve to boost our rotation. The other was injured anc we really don’t know how good he is yet.

He said in multiple interviews he wants to develop more from within. Felt burned by their portal evils this year and wants to now use the portal as a supplement not for the whole roster.

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I mean these aren't what you used to call 3-4 year guys. That's usually a Gavin Dugas/Travinski/Beloso type guy. Those guys don't hang around.

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I agree with this 100% and I think to an extent this is what was missing this year. The guys that were supposed to stick around didn’t and left a void. I’m not sure how you fix that. Also, the 4 year guys are typically Louisiana guys. They buy into the dream of playing for LSU more than the dream of going pro. I’m sure YOY the state doesn’t have 3-4+ LSU caliber guys but for YOY success we have to have the guys that are developing within the program. I think that’s what Jay was eluding to “developing the power within our system like Jake”. Finding them is the hard part though. I just don’t think turning over the roster 15-20 guys a year is sustainable. He has to get it right every time.