LSU 76 @ Florida State 79 Final - ESPN2

Game 2:
In a huge matchup and a right to play in the Advocare Championship your undefeated and nationally ranked Fighting Tigers play their toughest opponent yet in #14 Florida State. Both teams coming in looking for a resume defining win that will speak volumes to the committee down the road. This is likely the toughest opponent either team will face before conference play and will tell both fanbases a lot about the two teams. This game will be played in Orlando, so there will be a large contingent of FSU fans, but purple and gold always travel!

About FSU: The Seminoles are undefeated and already have impressive wins as they beat instate rival Florida by 21 at home, and went on the road and defeated an okay Tulane team, while controlling their game from start to finish beating a solid mid major program in UAB 81-63, to set the stage for this pivotal semifinal game. The Noles’ are coached by Leonard Hamilton who is now in his 17th year at the helm at FSU. Last year they broke through and made it all the way to the Elite Eight. This team returned virtually everyone and has no signs of slowing down. They are extremely athletic and a defensive minded team. As opposed to teams like Virginia that plays pack-line defense, FSU plays an aggressive high handed rim to rim pressure man to man. Where it varies than most is they more than do not mind dribble drive penetration if they can funnel into their bigs and helpside suffocating defense. Last year they were bigger than most NBA teams and this year is no different, the only differences that I see from an established 17 year program is this years team seems already more confident in offense. They do like to leak out in transition when the ball is shot so that is something to be careful about.

FSU
T. Mann (SR) 6’7 215
P.J. Savoy (SR) 6’4 210
T. Forrest (JR) 6’4 210
C. Koumadje (SR) 7’4 268
M.J. Walker (SO) 6’5 213

Bench
Vassell (FR) 6’6 180
Kabengele (SO) 6’10 250
Polite (FR) 6’6 215
Gray (FR) 6’8 260
Nichols (SR) 6’1 185
Wilkes (SO) 6’8 220

On any given night up to 13 guys could play for FSU, they are deep, and their regular rotation is a whopping 11 guys which for college basketball is not that common anymore. Even though they have an inside-out focus and attack the rim relentlessly, they are a very strong 3pt shooting team at 40% clip. Not surprisingly they get fouled more than they foul other teams 92 forced/80 given. However their assist/turnover ratio as a team is 55:63. While Koumadje gets all the attention standing at 7’4, the real inside offensive presence is Kabengele. Savoy and Walker are the guys you have to account for shooting the 3 ball and catching fire, both can shoot it quick and have the length and height to shoot over anybody. While LSU did not push the ball much against CoC as the game was disjointed by the officiating, they will need to run and do it efficiently against FSU. FSU is much more experienced and while LSU can compete with anyone, trying to beat FSU at their own game is never a safe bet. I will say this about FSU, with the way they sub, and the way they play defense at times they can go cold offensively and almost to a standstill.

Keys to the game:
Offensive rebounding: This is even more important for LSU, they have to keep FSU off the offensive glass because they are deeper and send subs in waves. Naz Reid looked like himself in LSU’s first game so he should help LSU again crash the offensive glass. One thing that LSU can exploit, even UAB against FSU got 6 offensive rebounds from their guards. At times as previously mentioned when shots go up FSU guards will leak out to try and get easy baskets in transition because there huge bigs are expected to gobble everything up. Javonte Smart and Marlon Taylor for LSU are two of the best guard rebounders when asked.

Free Throw Shooting: No easy way to put it, to win championships, whether it be conference, national, or in season tourney titles, the team that converts from the free throw line gives themselves a better chance to win than their opponent. Both teams are good to great FT shooting teams, I give the slight edge to LSU. However against FSU if you do not make your FT’s it is even worse because nothing slows an offensive pace down more so than free throws, even dead ball turnovers are not as bad. FSU will wear you down if you begin to let their size and length wear on a team and commit early fouls in a half.

Intense-Pressure Defense/Pressing: Through 5 games LSU has been very selective about when they have pressed, even token pressure, and they have two zone defenses that are in but have seldom been used outside of our Tech game. FSU will use their length and are very disruptive whether it be in their press when they use it or in the half court. Sometimes FSU guards alone will pick up opposing guards in full court just to send a message and it wears opponents down. Whichever team can more consistently find a way to attack on offense and handle various forms of pressure will win this game.

Prediction

Half
LSU 29 FSU 36
I could see LSU getting down by as much as double digits in the first half, FSU likes to come out and attack in their own way how LSU handles that being their first ranked versus ranked matchup in a long time will be crucial.

Final
LSU 73 FSU 71
I do not think this game will have many runs in it, each team will probably only get 2 maybe max 3 chances to get those. In settings like these LSU has 3 and half hours extra rest it may not mean as much but in the second half players know. FSU is a deep deep team so that will be negated a bit, I will never ever pick against LSU to lose, especially against such an inferior program in FSU. Tigers win in a squeaker because of Tremont Waters, he played lights out last night and had a career high in assists. It has not shown up scoring wise because he has given up some shots to lead this team, but he is much improved from last year. FSU likes to go super big, love when “little” guys like Tremont show them up. LSU gave up 27 to Brantley last night, Terrance Mann from FSU is every bit as good if not better than Brantley and has no holes and is a very cerebral player.

Hope everybody had a Happy Thanksgiving, enjoy this crazy weekend of football, and when LSU wins understand after Saturday basketball will be front and center.