re: Just split next two games, win rest & we are in CG

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Why do people keep pretending this is a possibility? The 2nd place SEC team isn't going to miss the playoffs.

We all know a 10-2 SEC team is very likely going to make the playoff, and a 9-3 team likely isn't.

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Someone posted a scenario where *eight* SEC teams could finish 10-2.

It’s obviously unlikely, but what if there are 5-6 SEC teams at 10-2 or better (regular season)? I wouldn’t want to be the one that catches an extra loss in the conference championship game, in that scenario.

Does it mean you’re definitely getting left out? No. But it leaves enough to chance to be concerning.

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There are currently 8 SEC teams that have 2 losses or less. So I’m going to go out on a limb and say that there is a 0% chance that all 8 of those teams finish the season 10-2…

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It’s obviously unlikely, but what if there are 5-6 SEC teams at 10-2 or better (regular season)?

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If we lose one game and win out and then lose in the SECC, you realize we’d have 3 losses, right?

There will be a lot of arguing about a 3 loss team being included for sure.

You realize that I said a 9-3 SEC team right? Meaning that they wouldn’t make the SEC championship game.

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You're not understanding the situation. A 10-2 SEC title game team that loses the SEC title is now 10-3. This is really simple to understand and can't understand why you don't get it. So yes a 10-2 that doesn't make SEC title is better off than a 10-3 that makes SEC title and loses. There's not much benefit to making the SEC title.

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I believe the committee has already stated that no teams will get knocked in the rankings for losing a conference championship

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I don't think they have stated that. But it is assumed, because otherwise that would be the downfall of conference championship games, which are very profitable for the conferences and the networks.

The thought is that they will want to protect the championship games, so they won't penalize for a loss. Now if you were to get blown out or something, maybe.

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I don't think they have stated that. But it is assumed, because otherwise that would be the downfall of conference championship games, which are very profitable for the conferences and the networks.

The thought is that they will want to protect the championship games, so they won't penalize for a loss. Now if you were to get blown out or something, maybe.

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If they really wanted to protect the conference championship games, they would finalize the CFP rankings at the end of the regular season. The top 4 champs are going to get a 1st round bye anyway.

So if you really aren’t going to penalize teams for championship game losses, then the championship games would only affect:
- Seeding (1-4) among the top 4 champions.
- Seeding (5-12) for the 5th ranked conference champion.

At that point, just finalize the rankings after the last regular season weekend. Then you don’t have to worry about protecting anything in the committee room. Teams playing in championships would know exactly what’s on the line. If you’re a playoff lock, you’re playing for a first-round bye. If you’re on the bubble or outside looking in, you’re playing for a playoff bid. Either way, the conference championship game can only help you.

There is a massive difference between 5 SEC teams finishing 10-2 and 8 SEC teams finishing 10-2. And to be clear, I 100% believe that if 5 SEC teams were to finish 10-2, the 2nd place team would get in over the 5th place team.

The point was just to illustrate that we could have a bunch of 10-2+ SEC teams.

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And to be clear, I 100% believe that if 5 SEC teams were to finish 10-2, the 2nd place team would get in over the 5th place team.

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OK, and what about the 4th place team?

Here’s a scenario for SEC standings:
1. LSU 7-1 (Loss to Bama)
2. Texas 7-1 (Wins out)
3. Tennessee 7-1 (Wins out)
4. Alabama 6-2 (Wins out)
5. Georgia 6-2 (Loss to Tennessee)
6. Texas A&M 6-2 (Losses to LSU and Texas)

LSU loses SECCG. That leaves you with:
1. Texas (11-1)
2. LSU (10-3)
3. Tennessee (11-1)
4. Alabama (10-2)
5. Georgia (10-2)
6. Texas A&M (9-3)

You think there’s no chance the committee ranks Georgia (who beat the SEC champ) and/or Alabama (who would have beaten us head-to-head) above LSU?

Now say you’ve got the following non-champions competing for 7 at-large spots:
12-1 Miami
11-1 Penn State
12-1 Oregon
12-1 BYU
11-1 Notre Dame
11-1 Indiana
11-1 Kansas State
11-1 Pitt
10-2 Illinois
… Plus Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, and UGA.

The list of non-SEC teams is mostly based on chalk for remaining schedules, outside of Clemson beating Miami and Ohio State beating Oregon in their respective championship games. It obviously won’t work out exactly like that, but the point is it doesn’t take that much crazy shite to end up with 8+ non-champions sitting at 11-1 or 12-1.

I think it’s a stretch to assume the SEC gets 4 spots at this point. And I think it’s silly to act like there’s absolutely no way a 10-3 SECCG loser gets left out.

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It’s sucks that the loser of the championship game will be punished while teams who sat at home get the benefit of not playing and getting healthy and not having to error about a L against a tough team.

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They have to figure this out. Maybe auto selection for teams that make the championship game, then seeding can be adjusted based on results of the game.

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Well, we are really only talking about the SEC and the Big 10. The odds are the ACC championship game loser will not be guaranteed a birth in the game, although they probably will this year. The Big 12 looks like a 1-bid league.

So your plan doesn't really work for all conferences.

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I’m not suggesting a conference championship game loser should be guaranteed a spot. I’m saying a conference championship game loser with a legitimate top 10 resume going into that game shouldn’t drop.

Legitimate is the key word there. The committee is going to have to start being harder on teams that haven’t played/beaten anyone. This is the case regardless of how conference championship games are viewed. The variability in SOS is crazy now, even within a given conference.

If a 1-loss team doesn’t actually have a top 10 resume, they shouldn’t be ranked in the committee’s top 10. And there’s no reason to play the game of ranking them high then seeing how they play in the conference championship, because the conference champ gets an auto bid anyway whether they’re #8 or #15.

Let me phrase it differently - if 11-1 Clemson has a better resume than 10-2 Ole Miss prior to the ACCCG, why should Clemson be dinged for losing to a playoff team while Ole Miss sat at home? And if Clemson doesn’t have a better resume than Ole Miss prior to the ACCCG, shouldn’t Clemson be ranked lower anyway?

How do you figure? Texas and UGA are both 1 loss teams and we will have 2 total losses. People need to realize that divisional play is over.