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Started By
Message
re: Is LSU -3 Free Money?
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:08 pm to JudgeHolden
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:08 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
But the main profit is in having even money on both sides because they get the juice risk free.
If money is 50/50 on both sides on every game with spread and total bets (standard odds of -110) the margins would be awful for them. They make a lot of their money off of setting lines where the house leans a side and the public leans the other.
2
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:09 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
This means that Vegas believes that half the people will take each side of the bet
It means that Vegas thinks that each side will get half of the money, not half of the bets. Huge difference.
I imagine Arkansas will get half the money, but a low percentage of the bets. That’s something you never want to bet against.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:09 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
A lot of people thought Tenn +8.5 was free money
Ole Miss +3 vs LSU was free money too.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:11 pm to JudgeHolden
Don’t be surprised that we’ll win the game 31-30 on the last second FG.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:13 pm to NolaTiger52
quote:
It means that Vegas thinks that each side will get half of the money, not half of the bets. Huge difference.
I imagine Arkansas will get half the money, but a low percentage of the bets. That’s something you never want to bet against.
Gotcha.
Is there somewhere you can see that?
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:14 pm to Paddyshack
quote:
Pretty much every time you see a line from Vegas that appears to be "free money"..... it's not.
This. I occasionally bet, and look for lines that seem too easy, and go the other way. Would be surprised how often that free money doesn't materialize. That said, wouldn't touch this one.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:16 pm to JudgeHolden
I just put down a huge bet on Arkansas ML with my betting luck to secure Victory Saturday.
You're welcome.
You're welcome.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:16 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
I would have it closer to 7.
a 3pt line on the road would be probably 6-7 at a neutral site and 10 pts in TS.
quote:
But just give me 1 point wins the rest of the way
hell yes...well except UAB
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:17 pm to Tigah
Take it now if you are going to play on LSU. It should shift. Are we sure KJ is playing?
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:20 pm to Paddyshack
Uh call me last week -13 1/2 = free money
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:24 pm to Tigah
[quote]Don’t be surprised that we’ll win the game 31-30 on the last second Field goal
or last second meaningless td by arkansas when LSU was up by 9.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:42 pm to burreauxsballz
quote:
If money is 50/50 on both sides on every game with spread and total bets (standard odds of -110) the margins would be awful for them. They make a lot of their money off of setting lines where the house leans a side and the public leans the other.
You think a 9.1% rake on a huge game every week is a bad ROR?
Seriously?
Posted on 11/7/22 at 4:50 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
Is there somewhere you can see that?
Several sites can estimate based off of what users on their sites take, but no sportsbook is going to give it out.
FanDuel sometimes lists percentages under each game, but no telling how accurate it is, and if they update the data
Posted on 11/7/22 at 5:37 pm to burreauxsballz
quote:
the margins would be awful for them
The margins are low for the house on most games in Vegas. Smart players at craps, blackjack, and roulette should win 45-49% of the time. Hell, even slot machines pay back over 90%. Casinos make their money on huge volume (and dining, and drinks, and shows, and shops), not lopsided margins.
Posted on 11/7/22 at 5:48 pm to Topwater Trout
Vegas has whiffed big on lsus last three games
LSU vs Uf opening line was Florida -2.5. Lsu won by 10. Best the spread by 12.5
LSU vs ole miss opening line was LsU -2.5. Lsu won by 25 Beating the spread by 22.5
LSU vs Bama opening line was Bama -13.5. LSU won by 3. Beating the spread by 16.5
Vegas and bettors are usually painfully slow to adjust on teams.
LSU vs Uf opening line was Florida -2.5. Lsu won by 10. Best the spread by 12.5
LSU vs ole miss opening line was LsU -2.5. Lsu won by 25 Beating the spread by 22.5
LSU vs Bama opening line was Bama -13.5. LSU won by 3. Beating the spread by 16.5
Vegas and bettors are usually painfully slow to adjust on teams.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 11/7/22 at 6:16 pm to JudgeHolden
I could see it going up to -5
Posted on 11/7/22 at 6:17 pm to LNCHBOX
me included 
Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:29 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
Sports betting is a booming business for the oddsmakers...agree or disagree?
Because of vig.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:45 am to JudgeHolden
Bump because it is STILL at -3.
I really thought the line would move up.
I'm down on -3. I may prove to be an idiot. I know the history. But I just don't see the Hawgs holding this LSU back, and I don't see them running up much on our defense.
I really thought the line would move up.
I'm down on -3. I may prove to be an idiot. I know the history. But I just don't see the Hawgs holding this LSU back, and I don't see them running up much on our defense.
Posted on 11/8/22 at 9:46 am to Topwater Trout
quote:
yeh Vegas sucks at this kind of thing
they sucked at determining LSU last two lines
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