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re: Interesting Defensive stats
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:18 pm to TchPowDog
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:18 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
Severely??
Yes, severely. 50 plays is one of the lowest numbers run against the LSU defense in the last 5 years and you’re including that number in 33% of the typical sample.
I.E. severely skewed.
quote:
Minus the GASO game, our defense is playing 74 plays per game. You think this is severe? It means it's one more drive. You think one more opponent's offensive drive is the difference between GASO defensive performance and the other games defensive performances?
6 plays per game equates 84 more plays on the season over 13 games.
That is pretty significant.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 1:22 pm
2
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:18 pm to ROPO
quote:
You have to account for the fact that Georgia Southern was a one dimensional team.
Back out that game and we're giving up 394 a game, 74 plays and 5.32 yards per play.
Ok, well while you're at it, just throw out all of our defense's good performances last year and then average the stats. This is fricking studid. The GASO game counts.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:19 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
So why are we suddenly missing tackles?
It's possible that it's just a small sample and so it looks way worse. By the end of the season it's possible our missed tackles aren't any worse than average.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:22 pm to madddoggydawg
quote:
We simply don't have a middle linebacker.
Phillips and Queen didn't improve at all from last year. I'm severely disappointed so far. And obviously, Baskerville didn't, or he'd be playing ahead of them.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:23 pm to RB10
quote:
Yes, severely. 50 plays is one of the lowest numbers run against the LSU defense in the last 5 years and you’re including that number in 33% of the typical sample.
I.E. severely skewed.
No, dummy. I just did the math for you, the difference is 6 plays/game. This is not severe.
I'll ask you again. Do you think 6 plays/game is difference in the GASO performance vs the other 3 games' performances?
In other words:
GASO - very good performance
Other 3 games - poor to average performance
Reason - 6 more plays/game
If that's what you're saying, I hope you realize how silly that is.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:23 pm to plance
quote:
In the first four games, most missed tackles have been in the secondary - namely, 5 and 7. D line has missed a couple, LB’s a few. Our DB legacy has been judged, in large part, by how physical they are and how well they tackle in open space.
And why did Greedy Williams drop in the draft? Because he was perceived to be a poor tackler. This is something that needs to get fixed and fixed now, and Coach Raymond needs to be held accountable to get it done.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:25 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
In my observation, our linebackers are missing the most assignments and our DBs are missing the most tackles.
I've noticed the same.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:27 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
No, dummy. I just did the math for you, the difference is 6 plays/game. This is not severe.
That’s nearly a 10% increase in opponents plays against. 10% is significant.
quote:
In other words: GASO - very good performance
Other 3 games - poor to average performance Reason - 6 more plays/game
The difference between GSU and the average of the other 3 games is 24 plays per game. Try again.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:28 pm to Tpayne99
If they bothers you then don’t enter the thread.
It’s clearly says “Interesting Defensive stats”
It’s clearly says “Interesting Defensive stats”
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:31 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
Ok, well while you're at it, just throw out all of our defense's good performances last year and then average the stats. This is fricking studid. The GASO game counts.
You're being obtuse. Of course the game counts, but if you want a meaningful sample, you shouldn't include it. It is an outlier (just like the A&M game last year). If something is an outlier statistically you should either eliminate it or find another mathematical way to adjust for it. If not, it will incorrectly skew your sample.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:32 pm to RB10
quote:
6 plays per game equates 84 more plays on the season over 13 games.
That is pretty significant.
Dude... wtf???
6 * 13 = 78
Also, You can't include the GASO game in there because you've already taken it out (for some reason).
So it's 6 * 12 = 72
72 more plays on the year... ok, wtf does that tell us - absolutely nothing.
Did you know the defense gets a week break between games? Plays per season means nothing. Plays per game has meaning. And +6 plays per game isn't the difference between good and bad play.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:33 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
Dude... wtf???
6 * 13 = 78
STOP the presses!!! Someone multiplied 6*14 rather than 6*13.
quote:
Also, You can't include the GASO game in there because you've already taken it out (for some reason).
I never said to take it out. I said it's skewing the data, which is true.
quote:
72 more plays on the year... ok, wtf does that tell us - absolutely nothing.
That's an entire games worth of plays over the course of a year.
quote:
Did you know the defense gets a week break between games? Plays per season means nothing. Plays per game has meaning. And +6 plays per game isn't the difference between good and bad play.
It's +6 plays per game right now, with skewed numbers because of a severe outlier in GSU.
You're comparing 33% of a season, with an extreme outlier skewing the data, to a full season. That alone renders your "stats" moot.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:35 pm to TchPowDog
Not making any excuses because defense absolutely needs to get better, but, he also mentioned this morning that the average LSU scoring drive is only 1:38 long. It's not the amount of plays it's the rest in between.
Chaisson, Lawrence, Logan all being out kills your front line depth and now those should be rotational guys are your first line of defense. I'd be stunned if we didn't see major improvement once those guys are back.
Chaisson, Lawrence, Logan all being out kills your front line depth and now those should be rotational guys are your first line of defense. I'd be stunned if we didn't see major improvement once those guys are back.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:40 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
quote:
It's not the amount of plays it's the rest in between
This doesn't check out.
Roughly same plays/game and same game length (60 mins) = roughly same average rest between drives.
quote:
Chaisson, Lawrence, Logan all being out kills your front line depth and now those should be rotational guys are your first line of defense. I'd be stunned if we didn't see major improvement once those guys are back.
This makes sense and is obvious. I'm just tired of the "our defense is tired because our offense is too fast" narrative because that's not the problem.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:43 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
The defense couldn’t stop Vandy on the opening drive, and the offense had not stepped foot on the field. They looked horrible as fresh as can be.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:46 pm to RB10
quote:
It's +6 plays per game right now, with skewed numbers because of a severe outlier in GSU.
No, dummy. The +6 comes from taking GASO out. If you don't take GASO out, our plays/game is less than last year. If you take GASO out, our plays/game is 3.6 more than last year. If you also take out the A&M OT, our current plays/game is 6 more than last year.
You still haven't answered my question - Do you think +6 plays/game (vs last year) is the difference between good and bad defensive play?
I'm granting you your magical stats here, so answer the question.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:46 pm to TchPowDog
You got to take into consideration if that is the full 2018 stats that that is against teams like UG, Aub, Bama, T A&M
Outside of texas we havent played anybody and have the same numbers which is not good at this point in the season.
Outside of texas we havent played anybody and have the same numbers which is not good at this point in the season.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:58 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
You still haven't answered my question - Do you think +6 plays/game (vs last year) is the difference between good and bad defensive play?
I'm granting you your magical stats here, so answer the question.
I think the defense is putting up very similar numbers to last year, but I think they're skewed because I'm smart enough to realize the GSU game is throwing everything off right now.
Pretty simple actually.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 2:02 pm to TchPowDog
quote:
This tells me 2 things:
1. Stop saying it's the offense's fault. Defense isn't "tired".
The defense was absolutely tired against Texas.
The average is skewed by our competition so far.
You are right that our defensive problems aren't solely attributed to fatigue.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 2:17 pm to LMfan
It can definitely be corrected, and part of it is probably just bad focus in blowouts.
Watching the tackling, I sometimes get the sense that they are too comfortable with a big lead and just trying to make a big play or get a big hit.
Hopefully they use Utah State as a real tuneup after the bye week and they get at least one half of full focus from the starters before Florida.
Watching the tackling, I sometimes get the sense that they are too comfortable with a big lead and just trying to make a big play or get a big hit.
Hopefully they use Utah State as a real tuneup after the bye week and they get at least one half of full focus from the starters before Florida.
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