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I mapped a couple of LSU’s playoff paths. Neither comes with blood pressure meds..
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:25 pm
Before anyone says it: yes, LSU has to win out. And yes, that’s a tall order. But if they pull it off, Kentucky-Tennessee could decide which path we take.
Both scenarios start here:
- LSU wins out. Finish 10–2.
- Georgia wins out. Finish 11–1.
- Texas and Georgia beat Ole Miss. That gives Ole Miss three losses.
- LSU hands Alabama and Texas their third loss.
- Mississippi State takes one more loss.
Path 1: Kentucky beats Tennessee
- Kentucky wins out.
- Tennessee loses to Kentucky and LSU. Three losses.
- Georgia and Kentucky go to Atlanta.
- LSU stays home at 10–2.
- Georgia, Kentucky, and LSU are the only SEC teams with two losses or fewer.
LSU waits for an at-large bid.
Path 2: Tennessee beats Kentucky
- Tennessee wins its other games except LSU.
- Kentucky wins its other games.
- LSU, Tennessee, and Kentucky all finish 10–2. All three are 7–2 in the SEC.
- Head-to-head is a circle. Each goes 1–1.
- Shared opponents are Alabama and A&M.
- LSU and Tennessee go 2–0. Kentucky goes 1–1.
- Kentucky drops out. LSU’s win over Tennessee breaks the tie.
LSU plays Georgia in Atlanta. Win that, and we’re in.
Lose, and we’re 10–3. I’m assuming three losses won’t get an at-large bid.
Outside the SEC, helpful results would be:
- BYU beats Utah. Utah also loses one more.
- Utah and Baylor beat Houston.
- Ohio State, Indiana, and UCLA beat USC.
- Miami wins the ACC. No surprise champ taking another spot.
If Path 1 happens, here’s my projected bracket. Seeds are my guess.
First-round byes:
- 1. BYU 13–0
- 2. Ohio State 12–1
- 3. Georgia 12–1
- 4. Miami 12–1
First-round games:
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas Tech
- No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Notre Dame
- No. 10 Iowa at No. 7 Indiana
- No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 UCLA
I’d give LSU the last at-large spot over a 10–2 Utah.
Path 2 changes that field. Kentucky and Tennessee would still have 10–2 cases. But LSU could settle its own case by beating Georgia.
Would you rather sit at 10–2 and wait or play Georgia for a guaranteed spot?
Pie in the sky? Probably. Let’s win one week at a time and see what happens.

Both scenarios start here:
- LSU wins out. Finish 10–2.
- Georgia wins out. Finish 11–1.
- Texas and Georgia beat Ole Miss. That gives Ole Miss three losses.
- LSU hands Alabama and Texas their third loss.
- Mississippi State takes one more loss.
Path 1: Kentucky beats Tennessee
- Kentucky wins out.
- Tennessee loses to Kentucky and LSU. Three losses.
- Georgia and Kentucky go to Atlanta.
- LSU stays home at 10–2.
- Georgia, Kentucky, and LSU are the only SEC teams with two losses or fewer.
LSU waits for an at-large bid.
Path 2: Tennessee beats Kentucky
- Tennessee wins its other games except LSU.
- Kentucky wins its other games.
- LSU, Tennessee, and Kentucky all finish 10–2. All three are 7–2 in the SEC.
- Head-to-head is a circle. Each goes 1–1.
- Shared opponents are Alabama and A&M.
- LSU and Tennessee go 2–0. Kentucky goes 1–1.
- Kentucky drops out. LSU’s win over Tennessee breaks the tie.
LSU plays Georgia in Atlanta. Win that, and we’re in.
Lose, and we’re 10–3. I’m assuming three losses won’t get an at-large bid.
Outside the SEC, helpful results would be:
- BYU beats Utah. Utah also loses one more.
- Utah and Baylor beat Houston.
- Ohio State, Indiana, and UCLA beat USC.
- Miami wins the ACC. No surprise champ taking another spot.
If Path 1 happens, here’s my projected bracket. Seeds are my guess.
First-round byes:
- 1. BYU 13–0
- 2. Ohio State 12–1
- 3. Georgia 12–1
- 4. Miami 12–1
First-round games:
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas Tech
- No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Notre Dame
- No. 10 Iowa at No. 7 Indiana
- No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 UCLA
I’d give LSU the last at-large spot over a 10–2 Utah.
Path 2 changes that field. Kentucky and Tennessee would still have 10–2 cases. But LSU could settle its own case by beating Georgia.
Would you rather sit at 10–2 and wait or play Georgia for a guaranteed spot?
Pie in the sky? Probably. Let’s win one week at a time and see what happens.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:26 pm to BPW
If LSU wins out they are in. If you think they are going to leave Lane Kiffin and the associated ratings out of this you are nuts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:28 pm to BPW
quote:WAAAAYYYY too early for this. Get back to us after 10 games, if we win our next 3.
I mapped a couple of LSU’s playoff paths.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:28 pm to BPW
quote:
Lose, and we’re 10–3. I’m assuming three losses won’t get an at-large bid.
I will fricking riot if we have to go to Atlanta and that keeps us out of the playoff.
You can't have shite like that happening when teams like notre dame sit at home with their written-in-rule of an automatic bid already waiting.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:29 pm to Fun Bunch
LSU schedule was even harder than anticipated
UK is ranked
MSU is ranked with their top QB
Auburn just beat #1
Ole Miss is ranked
Bama and Texas are still tough opponents
Tenn is ranked
Arkansas is the only easy SEC game on the schedule but LSU always has a tough time in Arkansas
Aggies have been a disappointment
UK is ranked
MSU is ranked with their top QB
Auburn just beat #1
Ole Miss is ranked
Bama and Texas are still tough opponents
Tenn is ranked
Arkansas is the only easy SEC game on the schedule but LSU always has a tough time in Arkansas
Aggies have been a disappointment
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:32 pm to BPW
This weekend should have taught everyone, that you can't "map out" games in the SEC each week. There is a realistic world where the SEC gets a 9-3 team into the playoffs, whether that be LSU or anybody else.
10-2 is 100% certainty of getting into the playoffs. No point in even attempting to play the what if game with anybody in that scenario.
10-2 is 100% certainty of getting into the playoffs. No point in even attempting to play the what if game with anybody in that scenario.
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 3:33 pm
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:32 pm to nicholastiger
I’d love for LSU to rematch OM in Atlanta or in the playoff. It’d honestly be better if we win out and don’t go to Atlanta though, which may be more likely.
I could be wrong but I believe we win out.
I could be wrong but I believe we win out.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:37 pm to BPW
Win Saturday and beat bama.
Until then rankings and scenarios don’t matter.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:39 pm to Adam Banks
coming off Bama and Texas, Tenn on the road is going to be tough sledding
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:50 pm to nicholastiger
Completely agree I’m just making the point that looking at this stuff is way too far out and until we win against a solid SEC team on the road and beat bama we are just a paper tiger.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:57 pm to BPW
quote:
Both scenarios start here:
LSU wins out. Finish 10–2
Could have just stopped there baw
If we win out, we’re in. Period.
I kept reading and just thought why is he doing all of this

This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:01 pm to BPW
Let's just go week to week at this point, bud. Don't put the cart before the horse. We're still in it, but we gotta do our part is the main thing. That's a big ask.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:09 pm to Tiger Voodoo
looking back..i was just bored okay
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:13 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
If LSU wins out they are in. If you think they are going to leave Lane Kiffin and the associated ratings out of this you are nuts
100% win out and we're in.
That'd be wins over Auburn on the road (who just beat #1), Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee on the road who just spanked Bama.
So we'd at worst have same record as Tennessee, and better than Bama, with the head-to-head. We would 100% be in.
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:15 pm to Adam Banks
quote:
Win Saturday and beat bama.
I'm not going to allow myself to even think about playoffs until after I see how we handle Auburn.
The team is trending in the right direction. If we get a good SEC road win, and get our #7s back, I'll believe.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:18 pm to BPW
quote:
looking back..i was just bored okay
Love the effort baw!
And this is all helpful when trying to see how we might fare at 9-3
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:27 pm to BPW
10-2 In like Flynn I don’t give a rats arse how you draw it up
That would be wins over Tx, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee with losses to the #7 & #11 teams as of today
That would be wins over Tx, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee with losses to the #7 & #11 teams as of today
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:30 pm to BPW
I'd prefer to not play in the SEC championship game. If you lose then you might play yourself out of the playoff and if you win then you get the first round bye which have been 1-7 in the 2 years of the 12 team playoff.
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:40 pm to BPW
quote:
looking back..i was just bored okay
Well, I'm glad you put it out there. Fun thought experiment.
Thanks for your time.

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