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I mapped a couple of LSU’s playoff paths. Neither comes with blood pressure meds..

Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:25 pm
Posted by BPW
Member since Aug 2025
11 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:25 pm
Before anyone says it: yes, LSU has to win out. And yes, that’s a tall order. But if they pull it off, Kentucky-Tennessee could decide which path we take.

Both scenarios start here:

- LSU wins out. Finish 10–2.
- Georgia wins out. Finish 11–1.
- Texas and Georgia beat Ole Miss. That gives Ole Miss three losses.
- LSU hands Alabama and Texas their third loss.
- Mississippi State takes one more loss.

Path 1: Kentucky beats Tennessee

- Kentucky wins out.
- Tennessee loses to Kentucky and LSU. Three losses.
- Georgia and Kentucky go to Atlanta.
- LSU stays home at 10–2.
- Georgia, Kentucky, and LSU are the only SEC teams with two losses or fewer.

LSU waits for an at-large bid.

Path 2: Tennessee beats Kentucky

- Tennessee wins its other games except LSU.
- Kentucky wins its other games.
- LSU, Tennessee, and Kentucky all finish 10–2. All three are 7–2 in the SEC.
- Head-to-head is a circle. Each goes 1–1.
- Shared opponents are Alabama and A&M.
- LSU and Tennessee go 2–0. Kentucky goes 1–1.
- Kentucky drops out. LSU’s win over Tennessee breaks the tie.

LSU plays Georgia in Atlanta. Win that, and we’re in.

Lose, and we’re 10–3. I’m assuming three losses won’t get an at-large bid.

Outside the SEC, helpful results would be:

- BYU beats Utah. Utah also loses one more.
- Utah and Baylor beat Houston.
- Ohio State, Indiana, and UCLA beat USC.
- Miami wins the ACC. No surprise champ taking another spot.

If Path 1 happens, here’s my projected bracket. Seeds are my guess.

First-round byes:

- 1. BYU 13–0
- 2. Ohio State 12–1
- 3. Georgia 12–1
- 4. Miami 12–1

First-round games:

- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas Tech
- No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Notre Dame
- No. 10 Iowa at No. 7 Indiana
- No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 UCLA

I’d give LSU the last at-large spot over a 10–2 Utah.

Path 2 changes that field. Kentucky and Tennessee would still have 10–2 cases. But LSU could settle its own case by beating Georgia.

Would you rather sit at 10–2 and wait or play Georgia for a guaranteed spot?

Pie in the sky? Probably. Let’s win one week at a time and see what happens.

Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
133184 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:26 pm to
If LSU wins out they are in. If you think they are going to leave Lane Kiffin and the associated ratings out of this you are nuts
Posted by atltiger6487
Member since May 2011
20399 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

I mapped a couple of LSU’s playoff paths.
WAAAAYYYY too early for this. Get back to us after 10 games, if we win our next 3.
Posted by John Rambeaux
Heauxpe, WA
Member since Oct 2023
1601 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

Lose, and we’re 10–3. I’m assuming three losses won’t get an at-large bid.



I will fricking riot if we have to go to Atlanta and that keeps us out of the playoff.

You can't have shite like that happening when teams like notre dame sit at home with their written-in-rule of an automatic bid already waiting.
Posted by nicholastiger
Member since Jan 2004
58320 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:29 pm to
LSU schedule was even harder than anticipated

UK is ranked
MSU is ranked with their top QB
Auburn just beat #1
Ole Miss is ranked
Bama and Texas are still tough opponents
Tenn is ranked

Arkansas is the only easy SEC game on the schedule but LSU always has a tough time in Arkansas

Aggies have been a disappointment
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
26150 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:32 pm to
This weekend should have taught everyone, that you can't "map out" games in the SEC each week. There is a realistic world where the SEC gets a 9-3 team into the playoffs, whether that be LSU or anybody else.

10-2 is 100% certainty of getting into the playoffs. No point in even attempting to play the what if game with anybody in that scenario.
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 3:33 pm
Posted by DeltaDoc
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
17129 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:32 pm to
I’d love for LSU to rematch OM in Atlanta or in the playoff. It’d honestly be better if we win out and don’t go to Atlanta though, which may be more likely.

I could be wrong but I believe we win out.
Posted by Adam Banks
District 5
Member since Sep 2009
39585 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:37 pm to



Win Saturday and beat bama.



Until then rankings and scenarios don’t matter.
Posted by nicholastiger
Member since Jan 2004
58320 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:39 pm to
coming off Bama and Texas, Tenn on the road is going to be tough sledding
Posted by Adam Banks
District 5
Member since Sep 2009
39585 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:50 pm to
Completely agree I’m just making the point that looking at this stuff is way too far out and until we win against a solid SEC team on the road and beat bama we are just a paper tiger.
Posted by Tiger Voodoo
Champs 03 07 09 11(fack) 19!!!
Member since Mar 2007
22695 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 3:57 pm to
quote:

Both scenarios start here:

LSU wins out. Finish 10–2



Could have just stopped there baw

If we win out, we’re in. Period.

I kept reading and just thought why is he doing all of this

This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 3:59 pm
Posted by lowhound
Effie
Member since Aug 2014
11391 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:01 pm to


Let's just go week to week at this point, bud. Don't put the cart before the horse. We're still in it, but we gotta do our part is the main thing. That's a big ask.
Posted by BPW
Member since Aug 2025
11 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:09 pm to
looking back..i was just bored okay
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
23390 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

If LSU wins out they are in. If you think they are going to leave Lane Kiffin and the associated ratings out of this you are nuts



100% win out and we're in.

That'd be wins over Auburn on the road (who just beat #1), Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee on the road who just spanked Bama.

So we'd at worst have same record as Tennessee, and better than Bama, with the head-to-head. We would 100% be in.

This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 4:18 pm
Posted by BitBuster
Lafayette
Member since Dec 2017
2083 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

Win Saturday and beat bama.



I'm not going to allow myself to even think about playoffs until after I see how we handle Auburn.

The team is trending in the right direction. If we get a good SEC road win, and get our #7s back, I'll believe.
Posted by Tiger Voodoo
Champs 03 07 09 11(fack) 19!!!
Member since Mar 2007
22695 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:18 pm to
quote:

looking back..i was just bored okay





Love the effort baw!

And this is all helpful when trying to see how we might fare at 9-3
This post was edited on 10/19/26 at 4:22 pm
Posted by Sissidog02
Member since Jan 2020
7673 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:27 pm to
10-2 In like Flynn I don’t give a rats arse how you draw it up
That would be wins over Tx, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee with losses to the #7 & #11 teams as of today
Posted by mikesliveisacheater
Member since Nov 2009
1780 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:30 pm to
I'd prefer to not play in the SEC championship game. If you lose then you might play yourself out of the playoff and if you win then you get the first round bye which have been 1-7 in the 2 years of the 12 team playoff.
Posted by JudgeHolden
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
19421 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:36 pm to
Thank you!
Posted by stuntman
Florida
Member since Jan 2013
11444 posts
Posted on 10/19/26 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

looking back..i was just bored okay


Well, I'm glad you put it out there. Fun thought experiment.

Thanks for your time.
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