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re: Give me good reasoning why LSU makes the playoff at 11-2?

Posted on 10/27/23 at 11:34 am to
Posted by TIGERSby10
Central Lafourche
Member since Nov 2005
7376 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 11:34 am to
Unless 2007 type chaos happens x 2

and

LSU wins out in dominant fashion against Bama & UGA

LSU will not make the playoffs this year

END OF DISCUSSION
Posted by Weekend Warrior79
Member since Aug 2014
19120 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 11:52 am to
quote:

If a 1 loss Georgia and two loss LSU Meet in Atlanta winner gets the #4 spot imo

Who is Georgia's 1 loss to? If it's Ole Miss, LSU isn't in Atl. If it's Mizz or FL, Georgia may not be in Atl.

Posted by TopWaterTiger
Lake Charles, LA
Member since May 2006
11200 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

You're outta your mind if you think an SEC Champ fails to make playoffs


And you're out of your mind if you think a 2 loss SEC champ LSU is getting in over undefeated conf champs from Pac, BIG 10, Big 12, ACC
Posted by Slappycrawdaddy
Austin, TX
Member since Sep 2021
137 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 12:18 pm to
Can we try to beat Bama first?
Posted by TDlurker
Member since Oct 2007
689 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 12:31 pm to
LSU is 100% in if the following things happen:

(1) LSU wins out
(2) Ole Miss loses a game
(3) Ga wins out, until the SECCG
(4) One of the remaining P5 conference champs - other than/in addition to FSU, loses a game along the way.

The chance of #2 - #4 happening are probably 90%+
The chance of #1 happening is extremely low.
Posted by Dotarian
Midwest
Member since Oct 2012
1416 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

You're outta your mind if you think an SEC Champ fails to make playoffs

Not so fast, my friend....

I said this in another thread, but it's still true: The butthurt is strong with the non-SEC conferences over our dominance in the playoffs and championships.

They've been clamoring for years that the SEC gets preferential treatment from the playoff committee, so this might be the year they throw the peasants a bone and keep a 2-loss SEC champ out of the playoffs.

This is especially true if the other champs are undefeated or only have one loss. Throw in the fact that the playoffs are expanding to 12 teams, and that might lessen the blowback of excluding an SEC champ this year.

As for what we need to do to get in: I think we need Georgia to win out, and then decisively beat the stuffing out of the remaining teams on our schedule (including the dogs). We can't give the committee any reason to look sideways at us by squeaking our way through the season, winning in Atlanta and then expecting to get a playoff spot just because we won the SEC.

Just my opinion.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
70835 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 1:10 pm to
No.
Posted by Menatiger
Mena, Arkanss
Member since Sep 2018
1196 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 1:29 pm to
This man has it right.
Ole Piss has to lose.
We have to win out convincingly.
One P5 conference has to totally implode.
Then we still have to have a 2007 perfect storm.

We currently are 15. We have to finish in the top four.

No no the ship has done sailed with the ole piss loss.
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
61339 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 1:30 pm to
quote:

Or does a 1 Loss Michigan or Ohio State stay ranked above a 2 Loss LSU?


Unless Michigan is blackballed, they're both getting in easily. The one loss would be to an undefeated #2 or #3 team. The big 10 has quite a racket going on right now with their three best teams in the same division and the rest of conference being complete garbage. They're almost guaranteed to get 2 teams in.
Posted by Tigers4Lyfe
Member since Nov 2010
5560 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

You're outta your mind if you think an SEC Champ fails to make playoffs
You're out of your mind for thinking not. This isn't yesteryear.

Things change over time. Accept it or move to the side.
Posted by CalLSU
Shreveport, la
Member since Feb 2009
825 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 1:43 pm to
Honestly, we don't make the playoffs this year without chaos happening all around us. Right now, all of the teams that are projected to either win their conference or, in Ohio States' case, finish 2nd, have better records and claims to be in the playoff.

Realistically, we need one of the 4 big conferences to have either a surprise conference champion or their champion have 2 losses. I just can't see a scenario where we get in over one of the teams listed below if we have one more loss than them. The Ole Miss loss really ruined our chances, obviously. If this is the final standings and conference champions, who would we get in over?:
Pac 12: Washington/Oregon 13-0 (Washington) or 12-1 (Oregon).
Big 10: Ohio State 12-1/13-0* I am giving the regular season win to Michigan but assuming with all the cheating allegations that they will have a post-season/conference championship ban and Ohio State gets to go instead.
Big 12: Texas/Oklahoma 12-1 (Texas) or 13-0 (Oklahoma).
ACC: Florida State 13-0 with a dominate win over us.

I think the best chance is to hope that the Pac 12 eats itself alive like it usually does every year. Washington still has @USC, Utah and @Oregon State left to play. Oregon still has @Utah, USC and Oregon State left to play. We need these 2 to lose at least 1 or 2 of these games and then lose the conference championship game as well. If that happens, we would get in. Things could also happen in the other conferences but none of the other conference leaders have as many tough games left like the Pac 12 does.
Posted by Tigers4Lyfe
Member since Nov 2010
5560 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

Look to 2024 the top 12.
Not speaking about LSU necessarily but can you imagine the discussions next year?

"Well if a 3 loss team does this and a 4 loss team does that, and that 2 loss team is XYZ, then so & so will get the 12th spot.
Posted by Tigers4Lyfe
Member since Nov 2010
5560 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

Can we try to beat Bama first?
No, we're having fun because it's a bye week.

That was said in the OP!
Posted by mtb010
San Antonio
Member since Sep 2009
5614 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 1:55 pm to
Yes, but they aren't going 11-2 this year. Best case 9-3 or maybe 8-4. Offenses are going to continue to score on LSU and in the next 4 games they will face 2 of the best defenses they've seen all year.
Posted by BlueWaffleHouse
LA
Member since Jul 2012
1956 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 2:35 pm to
The PAC12 and Big10 have largely backloaded their schedules, and short of OhioSt & Washington going undefeated, there’s a very good chance of no pac 12 team having < 2 losses and the Big12 could easily get shaken up this weekend.

FSU running the table & being #1 seed is best case for lsu & our SOS argument. An 11-2 sec champ lsu w/ a 3-2 record vs; 12-1 UGA, 13-0 FSU, 10-2 Bama, 10-2 Mizzou, 10-2 Ole Miss, (*& then wins over A&M, Florida, Auburn - who all have some of the highest SOS’s to skew their records)

The argument w/ others: “If your perception of lsu would change that drastically if you substituted FSU for ULM on the schedule and we were 12-1?” *teams shouldn’t be penalized for scheduling a Playoff caliber OOC game & rewarded for scheduling a directional school.
Posted by TeygerFan
Member since Dec 2016
446 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 2:43 pm to
I am anxious about the possibilities if we win out too, but I think we can put this topic on pause at least until after a win over Bama.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
70808 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 2:44 pm to
quote:

Wins over bama in tuscaloosa and over Georgia in Atlanta and a likely Heisman trophy winner makes it hard for the committee to leave out 11-2 LSU.



Without having any context of other teams this is a pointless exercise. They will easily leave an 11-2 LSU out for undefeated teams from other P5 conferences, for starters. And could also easily take 1 loss teams over us as well. In fact if FSU lost a game and won the ACC at 12-1, they are 100% ahead of us.
This post was edited on 10/27/23 at 2:46 pm
Posted by TDlurker
Member since Oct 2007
689 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 2:51 pm to
quote:

We currently are 15. We have to finish in the top four.
Under the scenario you lay out, LSU is going into the SECCG ranked ~#8 simply based on who plays whom between now and then. LSU likely leap-frogs a couple of teams next week if it beats Alabama, so we're probably ranked #5 or #6 in reality. That's BEFORE LSU plays Georgia in this scenario. There's not as much ranking left to climb as you think.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
70808 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

Under the scenario you lay out, LSU is going into the SECCG ranked ~#8 simply based on who plays whom between now and then. LSU likely leap-frogs a couple of teams next week if it beats Alabama, so we're probably ranked #5 or #6 in reality. That's BEFORE LSU plays Georgia in this scenario. There's not as much ranking left to climb as you think.



There's 6 undefeated P5 teams still, 1 of them beat us already. Take UGA out if we beat them, but even that weird scenario they could be 12-1 and we are 11-2. tOSU/UM will beat one another, but still...

These arent great odds or a great path for us to get to the NCG. As I said above, FSU can easily lose a game and still be ahead of us. Argument there would be even with 2 losses they should be ahead of us from blowing us out to open the season.
Posted by TDlurker
Member since Oct 2007
689 posts
Posted on 10/27/23 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

There's 6 undefeated P5 teams still,
The scenario laid out that I was responding to included the assumption "One P5 Conference totally implodes" As I said - UNDER THIS SCENARIO, LSU would go into the SECCG ranked #5 or #6, simply because of the teams ahead that HAVE to lose. Simply presuming the higher ranked team wins, here's how the top 15 plays out between now and then:

1 Ga (team we have to beat to be in)
2 Michigan (presumed in)
3 Ohio State (loss to Michigan 11/25)
4 Fla. St. (presumed in)
5 Washington (presumed in)
6 Oklahoma (lowest ranked P5 - presume this is the one that "implodes"?*)
7 Texas (loss to OU in B12 champ game / P5 implosion)
8 Oregon (loss to Washington in P12 champ game)
9 Alabama (loss to LSU 11/4)
10 Penn St. (loss to Michigan 11/11)
11 Oregon St. (loss to Washington 11/18)
12 Ole Miss (loss to Ga. 11/11)
13 Utah (loss to Oregon 10/29)
14 Notre Dame (will get jumped due to lack of CG)
15 LSU (presumed to win out under this scenario)

*If it's the Pac 12 or B10 that "implodes" instead of the B12, LSU might be ranked #4 when they play Georgia
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